Monday, November 3, 2008


...........What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.

Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?

North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.

What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.

What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.

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