The popular vote is irrelevent. It's unlikely McCain will win the popular vote.
Obama will likely win California and New York by 25 or 30 points or more.
And black turnout in the South will reduce McCain's margins to single digits.
But who cares?
Whether you win a state by 1% or 20%, a win is a win is a win in the electoral college.
All McCain has to do is hold the Bush states and steal Pennsylvania. I believe whoever wins PA will win the election. The west is hard because of the growth in the hispanic population and liberal California refugees. So while I'm still hoping to eke out wins in Nevada and Colorado I am not counting on them.
Let me tell you, I've seen the internals of the PA polls having Obama leading by 7, 8 or more. They are complete and utter BS. They have Obama winning SW Pennsylvania and Northeast PA by 10 points. Hillary won many of those counties 3:1. These are socially conservative voters. These are older voters. They are the salt of the earth people that Obama said clung to their religion and guns. They don't like radical change. They will not vote for B. Obama who spent 20 years in Wright's church of hate. .
If you look at the last Mason Dixon poll that had Obama with a 4 point lead 47-43 with 10% undecided, the vast majority of whom were white and rural in SW and NE PA, this is very, very, very do-able.
Seriously, if you are still undecided after watching Obama carpet bomb the airwaves outspending McCain 4:1, you aren't going to vote for him no matter what. Obama outspent Hillary 4:1 and still lost by 10 points.
McCain will win PA and with it the White House. Do not get discouraged. Get out the vote