Sunday, November 2, 2008


Okay lets revisit the DelBov curve and examine the Popular vote lead for Obama
CA,HI, IL,MD,DE,NJ.NY,CT,RI,MA,VT, DC (1/3 popular vote) or about 45,000,000 -20% vote margin for Obama is 9,000,000 votes
McCain states of AK, AZ, MT, ID, UT, WY, ND, SD, KS, NB, OK, TX, LA, AR, WV, KY, TN, MS, AL AND SC (1/4 of popular vote or 32,000,000) McCain looks to win these states by perhaps 4,000,000
Then there is obama’s likely and states where McCain has given up (WA, OR, MN and MI) Perhaps 12 million votes and I suspect if a 12 % margin for Obama or 1.5 million
Okay here’s a primer on DelBov curve. The blue states are becoming bluer and the red states a little pink and the 4 states where McCain has more or less pulled out will turn bluer. Based on my numbers here Obama is 6.5 million votes ahead based on 135 million turnout.
Now as to the battleground states of NH, ME, NV, NM, CO, Iowa, WI, IN, MO, GA. FL, NC, VA, OH and PA. They represent about 1/3 of the popular vote. I would be shocked if that went to anybody by more then a million votes. Lets say McCain runs the table and gets a million vote lead. Obama still wins the popular vote by 5.5 million or 4%. Yet McCain can win NV, CO, GA, FL, VA, NC, OH and IN and win the ECV by 274 to 264.
I say to my stat types. What’s the popular vote going to do? Is CA, IL, NY and CT really +20 for Obama. Note that as I have MI, WA and OR have really gone Blue as McCain just had to write them off. Maybe MN and WI have gone too? I have hope for WI, but not much.
I look at that Fox poll at +3, Ras at +5, IBD at +2 Obama and I see a real long night for Obama, but a shocking win for McCain. (

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