MVRed.com is prepared to make a well thought out and calculated prediction for the Presidency of the United States. We have run our calculations with the latest polls out at 2:15pm from Rasmussen Reports. As you will see in our chart below almost all the results in our *likely* voter scenario give Obama a small win in each state, but that is due to the great oversampling of Democrats this election cycle. Our likely voter model averages out the party id numbers pollsters are using this year with the 2006 exit poll numbers for all the states below.
We have calculated that in the states of OH-PA-VA that the undecided voters, which are white voters over the age of 40 will break 65-35% to John McCain. Many pundits on both sides of the aisle admit that if these white voters haven’t gotten behind Obama after his 2 year campaign, they likely won’t in the next 24 hours. We are also taking in effect that Hillary Clinton won the undecided white voters by about 70-30% in OH-PA. In the primaries Obama’s numbers compared to the actual results were about -1, while Hillary’s were about -4.5. If that occurs tomorrow with McCain, he should win Ohio by 2-3%, and PA by about 1%.
We also see the tightening in NC and MO and FL back towards McCain which should work in his favor. The other state that will decide election night with Pennsylvania, will be Virgina. McCain is definitely down here, but history says McCain should win this red state. Bush did 2.4% better than what the final polls said in VA in 2004. If that happens, McCain should win.
The bottom line will be this: Appalachia. This is an area where Hillary dominated and lost about 3 counties. McCain needs to take 80% of these counties which extend from Central/Western PA, Eastern OH, Eastern WV, and Western VA to win tomorrow. We believe McCain ignored the Mountain West and will lose NV by 2%, CO by 3%, and NM by 6%.
ELECTORAL VOTE PREDICTION: MCCAIN: 281 - OBAMA: 257
POPULAR VOTE: Obama: 49.8% - McCain: 48.1% - Other: 2.1%
If McCain loses Pennsylvania and Virginia, Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. McCain’s only path to victory if he loses VA is to win NV, which is possible, but very doubtful