I see a lot of concern about the polls showing Obama ahead, and I do share some of that concern. But I also think it might be good for the polls to show Obama ahead.
This election will obviously be close, so it will mostly be decided by turnout. Much of the potential Democratic voters would be first-time voters, young voters, people who haven't voted recently, etc. Think of who all the "Get Out and Vote" campaigns are geared towards. I believe these people would be much more motivated to get out and vote if the polls showed a close race. If they believe Obama will win it anyway, why go through the trouble?
Conservatives aren't cut from the same cloth. Conservatives will likely to get out to vote for their candidate whether they think that candidate will win or not (simply on the principle of the matter). And I would think showing Obama ahead would fire up more conservatives to vote than it would demoralize.
And then there are the undecided voters. The people who still haven't had enough time to educate themselves sufficiently on the candidates to determine which one is better (i.e. morons). If Obama is slated to have an easy win, then the pressure is off these people to finally make some kind of decision. They can tell their friends that they didn't bother to decide because it looked like Obama was going to win it anyway.
Next are the groups like ACORN. If the race is projected to be close, then they will feel that much more motivated to break more laws and fake more votes. But if a Obama win is projected, then they will likely not push quite as hard.
Plus, I would absolutely love for these polls to be completely inaccurate in predicting the winner of a presidential election. Then we wouldn't have to hear about them constantly in the future.
And finally there are the shreking liberals who will go to bed thinking their guy has it in the bag and wake up to be told the harsh reality.
So while I do admit their is some cause for concern, I can also see quite a few advantages of having Obama winning in the polls.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
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