Friday, October 31, 2008

Mccain Pollster: Republican running almost even in Party ID vote

McCain pollster sees smaller Dem #'s than predicted

Bill McInturff of the McCain campaign thinks we will see a much smaller Democratic advantage than many pollsters have been telling us for much of this year.

"Now in the modern year, '84 on, every cycle, the worst possible cycle, 1992, among people who went to vote, they were by five points Democrat. So what we're seeing in that last week or ten days is intensity increasing with some of the core Republican coalition, so that they are finally kicking in and going up, and as that happens we're seeing a closing in party identification. And I believe that party ID on election day in the exit polls, and then of course incorporate early voters is going to be in that kind of historic norm of minus three to minus five. And when that happens, John McCain and our stuff always run ah ead of party ID. And so this kind of rising intensity with our coalition, the consolidating of party identification is helping create a very, very close result.

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