Sunday, October 26, 2008

Re-weighted 2004 turnout IBD/TIPP poll shows Obama leading Mccain by less then 1 point

re-weighted the IBD/TIPP poll using their internals given for percentage of party voting for each candidate. Obama has 84% Democrats, 7% Republicans, and 42% Independents. McCain has 7% Democrats, 85% Republicans, and 37% Independents. Using the 2004 turnout of Democrats 37%, Republicans 37%, and Independents 26%, the IBD/TIPP poll from October 25, 2008 goes from the current poll numbers to the following: Current IBD/TIPP Poll Obama 45.8% McCain 41.9% Difference 3.9% Re-weighted IBD/TIPP Poll Obama 44.59% McCain 43.66% Difference 0.83%

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