FOX NEWS POLL: ''Obama's lead among those who say they have already voted has almost disappeared. He has a 1-point edge -- just 48-47 percent -- in this latest poll, down from a 52-43 percent lead previously''.
PEW RESEARCH: ''among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama''.
Monday, November 3, 2008
LEAKED: OBAMA'S CONCESSION SPEECH
“I spoke with Sen. McCain on the phone moments ago, and I offered him and Gov. Palin our congratulations on their victory.”
IF UR STIL CONCERNED WATCH THIS SPEECH!!!! CLICK HERE
http://cbs4.com/campaign08/McCain.campaign08.miami.2.854861.html
BILL KRISTOL:Hey Liberals, Don’t Worry
But what if John McCain pulls off an upset?
I’m worried about my compatriots on the left. Michael Powell reports in Saturday’s New York Times that even the possibility of an Obama defeat has driven many liberals into in a state of high anxiety. And then there’s a young woman from Denver who “told her boyfriend that their love life was on hold while she sweated out Mr. Obama’s performance in Colorado.” Well, what if Obama loses Colorado? Or the presidency? As a compassionate conservative, I’m concerned about the well-being of that boyfriend — and of others who might be similarly situated. I feel an obligation to help.
So let me tell liberals why they should be cheerful if McCain happens to win.
1. It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.
2. It would be a defeat for the establishment. Obama’s most recent high-profile Republican endorser was D.C. insider Kenneth Duberstein. Liberals should be on the side of hard-working plumbers, not big-shot lobbyists — oops, sorry, big-shot strategic advisers and consultants. And Duberstein said that Colin Powell’s endorsement was “the Good Housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama.” Doesn’t that comment embody everything that liberals (and many conservatives, including me) find creepy about smug establishment back-scratching and gatekeeping in America?
3. It would be a victory for the future. With President Bush’s approval rating at about 25 percent, a McCain triumph would mean Americans were making a judgment on two future alternatives, not merely voting on the basis of their resentment at the past performance of George W. Bush. It would mean voters were looking ahead, not back. Liberals should therefore welcome a McCain win as a triumph of hope over fear, of the future over the past.
4. It would be a victory for freedom. Obama supporter Leon Wieseltier of The New Republic writes that “tyrants and génocidaires would sleep less soundly during a McCain presidency.” Liberals should be opposed to tyranny and genocide. Wieseltier also acknowledges that McCain “was splendidly right about the surge, which is not a small thing; and the grudging way Obama treats the reversal in Iraq, when he treats it at all, is disgraceful.” The surge advanced not only our national security but the cause of freedom in the world. Liberals should be votaries of freedom.
5. A McCain victory would be good for liberalism. Look at recent history. Jimmy Carter and a Democratic Congress begat Ronald Reagan. Bill Clinton and a Democratic Congress produced Newt Gingrich. Who knows what would follow a President Obama and a Democratic Congress? Here’s one possibility: President Sarah Palin.
So liberals shouldn’t be too upset at the idea of McCain winning. Could it happen?
It’s possible. What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama’s support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.
I’m worried about my compatriots on the left. Michael Powell reports in Saturday’s New York Times that even the possibility of an Obama defeat has driven many liberals into in a state of high anxiety. And then there’s a young woman from Denver who “told her boyfriend that their love life was on hold while she sweated out Mr. Obama’s performance in Colorado.” Well, what if Obama loses Colorado? Or the presidency? As a compassionate conservative, I’m concerned about the well-being of that boyfriend — and of others who might be similarly situated. I feel an obligation to help.
So let me tell liberals why they should be cheerful if McCain happens to win.
1. It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.
2. It would be a defeat for the establishment. Obama’s most recent high-profile Republican endorser was D.C. insider Kenneth Duberstein. Liberals should be on the side of hard-working plumbers, not big-shot lobbyists — oops, sorry, big-shot strategic advisers and consultants. And Duberstein said that Colin Powell’s endorsement was “the Good Housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama.” Doesn’t that comment embody everything that liberals (and many conservatives, including me) find creepy about smug establishment back-scratching and gatekeeping in America?
3. It would be a victory for the future. With President Bush’s approval rating at about 25 percent, a McCain triumph would mean Americans were making a judgment on two future alternatives, not merely voting on the basis of their resentment at the past performance of George W. Bush. It would mean voters were looking ahead, not back. Liberals should therefore welcome a McCain win as a triumph of hope over fear, of the future over the past.
4. It would be a victory for freedom. Obama supporter Leon Wieseltier of The New Republic writes that “tyrants and génocidaires would sleep less soundly during a McCain presidency.” Liberals should be opposed to tyranny and genocide. Wieseltier also acknowledges that McCain “was splendidly right about the surge, which is not a small thing; and the grudging way Obama treats the reversal in Iraq, when he treats it at all, is disgraceful.” The surge advanced not only our national security but the cause of freedom in the world. Liberals should be votaries of freedom.
5. A McCain victory would be good for liberalism. Look at recent history. Jimmy Carter and a Democratic Congress begat Ronald Reagan. Bill Clinton and a Democratic Congress produced Newt Gingrich. Who knows what would follow a President Obama and a Democratic Congress? Here’s one possibility: President Sarah Palin.
So liberals shouldn’t be too upset at the idea of McCain winning. Could it happen?
It’s possible. What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama’s support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.
McCain Campaign Manager Offers Winning Scenario
John McCain’s campaign manager laid out a come-from-behind-victory scenario late Sunday evening as the campaign prepared for a seven-state, 18-hour cross-country swing.
Although a number of national polls, including the most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, give Barack Obama a sizable lead, Rick Davis, a longtime McCain confidante who carried him through the primaries, told reporters that the campaign has many routes on the electoral map to the magic number of 270 electoral college votes.
Davis dismissed scenarios that rested on winning a specific state, like Virginia or Florida, and said that recent polling in the West, which shows Obama’s double-digit leads shrinking, has given the campaign considerable hope. “If we can win Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, all of the sudden we’ve got a whole new pathway to victory,” Davis said. “Those weren’t even on the list three weeks ago,” he said.
The linchpin will be undecided voters, which the McCain campaign believes are largely white, lean towards the middle of the political spectrum and live outside of urban areas—from the suburbs to the rural parts of the state.
“If Barack Obama hasn’t closed the deal with them after, you know, two years in the campaign and a year as the nominee of their party, maybe they’re holding out for a good reason,” Davis said.
The McCain campaign’s pollster, Bill McInturff, said a record voter turnout of 130 million people is possible. If turnout drops below that level, it will likely be undecideds who stayed home, Davis said. “But if it goes over, you’ll know that they came out and there’s a good chance for us to win.”
Although a number of national polls, including the most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, give Barack Obama a sizable lead, Rick Davis, a longtime McCain confidante who carried him through the primaries, told reporters that the campaign has many routes on the electoral map to the magic number of 270 electoral college votes.
Davis dismissed scenarios that rested on winning a specific state, like Virginia or Florida, and said that recent polling in the West, which shows Obama’s double-digit leads shrinking, has given the campaign considerable hope. “If we can win Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, all of the sudden we’ve got a whole new pathway to victory,” Davis said. “Those weren’t even on the list three weeks ago,” he said.
The linchpin will be undecided voters, which the McCain campaign believes are largely white, lean towards the middle of the political spectrum and live outside of urban areas—from the suburbs to the rural parts of the state.
“If Barack Obama hasn’t closed the deal with them after, you know, two years in the campaign and a year as the nominee of their party, maybe they’re holding out for a good reason,” Davis said.
The McCain campaign’s pollster, Bill McInturff, said a record voter turnout of 130 million people is possible. If turnout drops below that level, it will likely be undecideds who stayed home, Davis said. “But if it goes over, you’ll know that they came out and there’s a good chance for us to win.”
Another Bright Ray of Hope -
BIGLIZARD:
While Barack H. Obama pulled into a bigger (but still catchable) lead in most of the national polls, John S. McCain has suddenly started improving in the more critical state polling, bizarrely enough. Ohio is now back to being a toss-up state, with a new Mason-Dixon poll showing McCain leading for the first time in a long, long time, after nearly a week of the average leaning towards Obama.
Whoops, correction: The national polls did not tick up for Obama today; I spoke too soon. When the rest of today's tracking polls came in, Obama's already small lead shrunk 0.7% down to 5.3; this is based upon Rasmussen (holding steady), Gallup traditional (Obama drops 2 points from yesterday), Zogby (Obama up one tick), and IBD (Obama down two ticks). We're still waiting for the newest release of the Battleground poll.
One other interesting point on the national polling: Rasmussen has a ludicrous (in my opinion) turnout model where Democrats will outperform Republicans by 6.5%! In 2004, the gap was about 1.5% on election day; in 2006, it was 6.1%. But there are two related points to note:
First, what Rasmussen is measuring is not turnout but rather the party affiliation claimed by respondents in a separate poll of adults. In other words, at best, Rasmussen is measuring total party registration (self reported) -- not what percent of each party will turn out. Thus, when they weight their polling on that basis, they're making the stealth turnout assumption that all the first-time registered Democrats and youth Democrats and such are just as likely to vote as older Democrats or Republicans who have voted every election for many years, that 6.5% more registered Democrats directly translates into 6.5% more votes for Obama. This is a questionable projection, to say the least.
Second and even more intriguing... Rasmussen predicts a 6.5% Democratic advantage in turnout and adjusts its polling accordingly; but even so, they have Obama up by only 5%. Aren't they tacitly admitting that McCain will do significantly better in winning over Democrats than Obama will in turning Republicans to the dark side?
Now let's get back to the state polls released today...
Virginia is on the bring of becoming a toss-up (it's been leaning Obama for a while), and would already be except for one CNN poll; Nevada, while still technically leaning Obama, would also be a toss-up, except for one single-day poll I've never heard of -- Suffolk -- from a week ago.
Colorado is achingly close to being a toss-up as well; the most recent Denver Post/Mason-Dixon poll has Obama ahead by only 5 points, and Obama's overall lead is only 5.5.
If we change those states to toss-ups on the RCP electoral map, Obama drops below the magic 270 for the first time in a couple of weeks -- a stunning improvement for McCain. If the most recent polls are accurate, that means that John McCain can now win the election by only winning enough of those toss-ups, without having to take a single state where Obama has a significant lead right now.
But that's not all... in Pennsylvania, where John McCain and Sarah Palin have been campaigning heavily (against the advice of well-meaning Democrats, who have been advising McCain that he can't win there, so he should pull out), there are five polls in the RCP average; one of them, Marist, is clearly an outlier (Obama +14, twice as big a lead as the next nearest poll). Take Marist out of the mix, and Obama only leads by 5.3% in Pennsylvania -- making that state as close as makes no difference to a toss-up as well.
If we make Pennsylvania a toss-up, that leaves Barack Obama at only 243 in the electoral count -- rather, 242, since McCain is very likely to win that one electoral vote in Maine decided by a Republican-leaning district.
I have always assumed that McCain will win every state that is already a for-real toss-up in the RCP average right now, since he's a closer... and in the primaries, Obama underperformed his polling in nearly all the later races against Hillary Clinton. Thus I give McCain Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona. Those are all states that went to George W. Bush in both the 2000 and the 2004 elections; McCain has improved his standing in each of those states recently, so he has momentum; and in fact, McCain currently either leads by more than 1% or is tied (less than 1% lead for one or the other nominee) in all of those states except Florida, where he trails by only 3.3 points, within the margin of error (I don't count the addlepated Los Angeles Times poll).
Everything then comes down to four states: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All except the last are states George W. Bush won twice. Obama must win two of them -- and the correct two -- to take the election away from McCain; he has to win one of either Ohio or Pennsylvania, and then he must win Colorado. If McCain wins both Ohio and Pennsylvania, or if he wins one of them plus Colorado, then he wins the race, 270 to 268.
I suspect McCain is going to win Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada, giving him a narrow but comfortable victory of 275 to 263... but he might sweep all four on a reasonably good night, making it a more convincing 296 to 242.
While Barack H. Obama pulled into a bigger (but still catchable) lead in most of the national polls, John S. McCain has suddenly started improving in the more critical state polling, bizarrely enough. Ohio is now back to being a toss-up state, with a new Mason-Dixon poll showing McCain leading for the first time in a long, long time, after nearly a week of the average leaning towards Obama.
Whoops, correction: The national polls did not tick up for Obama today; I spoke too soon. When the rest of today's tracking polls came in, Obama's already small lead shrunk 0.7% down to 5.3; this is based upon Rasmussen (holding steady), Gallup traditional (Obama drops 2 points from yesterday), Zogby (Obama up one tick), and IBD (Obama down two ticks). We're still waiting for the newest release of the Battleground poll.
One other interesting point on the national polling: Rasmussen has a ludicrous (in my opinion) turnout model where Democrats will outperform Republicans by 6.5%! In 2004, the gap was about 1.5% on election day; in 2006, it was 6.1%. But there are two related points to note:
First, what Rasmussen is measuring is not turnout but rather the party affiliation claimed by respondents in a separate poll of adults. In other words, at best, Rasmussen is measuring total party registration (self reported) -- not what percent of each party will turn out. Thus, when they weight their polling on that basis, they're making the stealth turnout assumption that all the first-time registered Democrats and youth Democrats and such are just as likely to vote as older Democrats or Republicans who have voted every election for many years, that 6.5% more registered Democrats directly translates into 6.5% more votes for Obama. This is a questionable projection, to say the least.
Second and even more intriguing... Rasmussen predicts a 6.5% Democratic advantage in turnout and adjusts its polling accordingly; but even so, they have Obama up by only 5%. Aren't they tacitly admitting that McCain will do significantly better in winning over Democrats than Obama will in turning Republicans to the dark side?
Now let's get back to the state polls released today...
Virginia is on the bring of becoming a toss-up (it's been leaning Obama for a while), and would already be except for one CNN poll; Nevada, while still technically leaning Obama, would also be a toss-up, except for one single-day poll I've never heard of -- Suffolk -- from a week ago.
Colorado is achingly close to being a toss-up as well; the most recent Denver Post/Mason-Dixon poll has Obama ahead by only 5 points, and Obama's overall lead is only 5.5.
If we change those states to toss-ups on the RCP electoral map, Obama drops below the magic 270 for the first time in a couple of weeks -- a stunning improvement for McCain. If the most recent polls are accurate, that means that John McCain can now win the election by only winning enough of those toss-ups, without having to take a single state where Obama has a significant lead right now.
But that's not all... in Pennsylvania, where John McCain and Sarah Palin have been campaigning heavily (against the advice of well-meaning Democrats, who have been advising McCain that he can't win there, so he should pull out), there are five polls in the RCP average; one of them, Marist, is clearly an outlier (Obama +14, twice as big a lead as the next nearest poll). Take Marist out of the mix, and Obama only leads by 5.3% in Pennsylvania -- making that state as close as makes no difference to a toss-up as well.
If we make Pennsylvania a toss-up, that leaves Barack Obama at only 243 in the electoral count -- rather, 242, since McCain is very likely to win that one electoral vote in Maine decided by a Republican-leaning district.
I have always assumed that McCain will win every state that is already a for-real toss-up in the RCP average right now, since he's a closer... and in the primaries, Obama underperformed his polling in nearly all the later races against Hillary Clinton. Thus I give McCain Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona. Those are all states that went to George W. Bush in both the 2000 and the 2004 elections; McCain has improved his standing in each of those states recently, so he has momentum; and in fact, McCain currently either leads by more than 1% or is tied (less than 1% lead for one or the other nominee) in all of those states except Florida, where he trails by only 3.3 points, within the margin of error (I don't count the addlepated Los Angeles Times poll).
Everything then comes down to four states: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All except the last are states George W. Bush won twice. Obama must win two of them -- and the correct two -- to take the election away from McCain; he has to win one of either Ohio or Pennsylvania, and then he must win Colorado. If McCain wins both Ohio and Pennsylvania, or if he wins one of them plus Colorado, then he wins the race, 270 to 268.
I suspect McCain is going to win Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada, giving him a narrow but comfortable victory of 275 to 263... but he might sweep all four on a reasonably good night, making it a more convincing 296 to 242.
YAHOO HEADLINE:Breaking down the numbers
''Barack Obama is polling ahead, but John McCain has a bigger chance than it first appears''
VICTORY WE CAN BELIEVE IN....
www.ezralevant.com
...... I'd like to make a prediction.
I predict that John McCain will win the U.S. presidential election next week.
I won't give you a detailed analysis, for it's mainly a hunch -- a hunch and a hope. But I still think he's going to win......
...... I'd like to make a prediction.
I predict that John McCain will win the U.S. presidential election next week.
I won't give you a detailed analysis, for it's mainly a hunch -- a hunch and a hope. But I still think he's going to win......
MAC IS BACK IN FL
McCain just ended a midnight rally in Miami Florida, where a rousing , enthusiastic, upbeat , hopeful, crowd gave him the warmest welcome since the start of the campaign, and if you think he gives up, he continued speaking over the crowd with a happy, hopeful, speech, promising Victory, and continue fighting as he did all his life.
If this is the Mood in the Republican party, then i am more then confident ,that we are in to win this Election, and clear our path to Victory, and bring hope and change to the American people.
LET YOUR VOICES BE HEARD, GO OUT TO VOTE, VOLUNTEER, MAKE PHONE CALLS, AND BE THE SEED THAT PLANTED HOPE FOR THE FUTURE GENERATION TO COME , IN THE COUNTRY WE SO LOVE.
If this is the Mood in the Republican party, then i am more then confident ,that we are in to win this Election, and clear our path to Victory, and bring hope and change to the American people.
LET YOUR VOICES BE HEARD, GO OUT TO VOTE, VOLUNTEER, MAKE PHONE CALLS, AND BE THE SEED THAT PLANTED HOPE FOR THE FUTURE GENERATION TO COME , IN THE COUNTRY WE SO LOVE.
Political Expert Paul N. Marston Puts His Reputation on the Line; McCain Wins!!!
THE MCCAIN-PALIN LANDSLIDE
Your first thought is that I am drunk on Kool-Aid when you see this title. I am going to show you why I am so sure about this prediction. Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy. That includes get elected to office to prove I was right about winning an election. See my biography for details. I have to be very sure to risk a 45 year reputation so remember that you read it here first.The next question is how could I possibly be so sure when the polls are predicting the exact opposite? Because I know the polls are wrong since they are not properly taking into account the P.U.M.A. Factor. I have explained previously that the mere fact that the polls violently disagree with each other is proof of something seriously amiss with the polling models. See my article on The P.U.M.A. Factor. On November 1st, I posted an article entitled How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor?That article pointed out that, at the time I wrote it, it required only a total of 493,636 PUMA voters in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to produce a tie in the electoral votes. Add a mere 35,935 more in Nevada and McCain-Palin wins. At the time, I was almost ready to bet the ranch that there were 529,571 PUMA voters in those six states, but I waited another 24 hours to make sure. Now the trend is so clear that it is obvious to me that a McCain-Palin landslide is in the works. It is amazing how few people in politics never apply some fairly simple mathematics to see what is going to happen in the next election.
READ MORE: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=94&Itemid=118
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 42 electoral votes
Your first thought is that I am drunk on Kool-Aid when you see this title. I am going to show you why I am so sure about this prediction. Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy. That includes get elected to office to prove I was right about winning an election. See my biography for details. I have to be very sure to risk a 45 year reputation so remember that you read it here first.The next question is how could I possibly be so sure when the polls are predicting the exact opposite? Because I know the polls are wrong since they are not properly taking into account the P.U.M.A. Factor. I have explained previously that the mere fact that the polls violently disagree with each other is proof of something seriously amiss with the polling models. See my article on The P.U.M.A. Factor. On November 1st, I posted an article entitled How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor?That article pointed out that, at the time I wrote it, it required only a total of 493,636 PUMA voters in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to produce a tie in the electoral votes. Add a mere 35,935 more in Nevada and McCain-Palin wins. At the time, I was almost ready to bet the ranch that there were 529,571 PUMA voters in those six states, but I waited another 24 hours to make sure. Now the trend is so clear that it is obvious to me that a McCain-Palin landslide is in the works. It is amazing how few people in politics never apply some fairly simple mathematics to see what is going to happen in the next election.
READ MORE: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=94&Itemid=118
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 42 electoral votes
SURVEYUSA: MINNESOTA A TOSS UP (M +3)
60 hours until votes are counted in Minnesota, Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain is back inside the margin of sampling error, according to SurveyUSA's final look at one of 2008's most interesting states. Obama 49%, McCain 46%, in interviewing underwritten by KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV Duluth and KAAL-TV Rochester, 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Obama led by 6 two weeks ago, now by 3.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
HOW MCCAIN CAN PULL OUT A EV WIN
Okay lets revisit the DelBov curve and examine the Popular vote lead for Obama
CA,HI, IL,MD,DE,NJ.NY,CT,RI,MA,VT, DC (1/3 popular vote) or about 45,000,000 -20% vote margin for Obama is 9,000,000 votes
McCain states of AK, AZ, MT, ID, UT, WY, ND, SD, KS, NB, OK, TX, LA, AR, WV, KY, TN, MS, AL AND SC (1/4 of popular vote or 32,000,000) McCain looks to win these states by perhaps 4,000,000
Then there is obama’s likely and states where McCain has given up (WA, OR, MN and MI) Perhaps 12 million votes and I suspect if a 12 % margin for Obama or 1.5 million
Okay here’s a primer on DelBov curve. The blue states are becoming bluer and the red states a little pink and the 4 states where McCain has more or less pulled out will turn bluer. Based on my numbers here Obama is 6.5 million votes ahead based on 135 million turnout.
Now as to the battleground states of NH, ME, NV, NM, CO, Iowa, WI, IN, MO, GA. FL, NC, VA, OH and PA. They represent about 1/3 of the popular vote. I would be shocked if that went to anybody by more then a million votes. Lets say McCain runs the table and gets a million vote lead. Obama still wins the popular vote by 5.5 million or 4%. Yet McCain can win NV, CO, GA, FL, VA, NC, OH and IN and win the ECV by 274 to 264.
I say to my stat types. What’s the popular vote going to do? Is CA, IL, NY and CT really +20 for Obama. Note that as I have MI, WA and OR have really gone Blue as McCain just had to write them off. Maybe MN and WI have gone too? I have hope for WI, but not much.
I look at that Fox poll at +3, Ras at +5, IBD at +2 Obama and I see a real long night for Obama, but a shocking win for McCain. (http://www.hedgehogreport.com/)
CA,HI, IL,MD,DE,NJ.NY,CT,RI,MA,VT, DC (1/3 popular vote) or about 45,000,000 -20% vote margin for Obama is 9,000,000 votes
McCain states of AK, AZ, MT, ID, UT, WY, ND, SD, KS, NB, OK, TX, LA, AR, WV, KY, TN, MS, AL AND SC (1/4 of popular vote or 32,000,000) McCain looks to win these states by perhaps 4,000,000
Then there is obama’s likely and states where McCain has given up (WA, OR, MN and MI) Perhaps 12 million votes and I suspect if a 12 % margin for Obama or 1.5 million
Okay here’s a primer on DelBov curve. The blue states are becoming bluer and the red states a little pink and the 4 states where McCain has more or less pulled out will turn bluer. Based on my numbers here Obama is 6.5 million votes ahead based on 135 million turnout.
Now as to the battleground states of NH, ME, NV, NM, CO, Iowa, WI, IN, MO, GA. FL, NC, VA, OH and PA. They represent about 1/3 of the popular vote. I would be shocked if that went to anybody by more then a million votes. Lets say McCain runs the table and gets a million vote lead. Obama still wins the popular vote by 5.5 million or 4%. Yet McCain can win NV, CO, GA, FL, VA, NC, OH and IN and win the ECV by 274 to 264.
I say to my stat types. What’s the popular vote going to do? Is CA, IL, NY and CT really +20 for Obama. Note that as I have MI, WA and OR have really gone Blue as McCain just had to write them off. Maybe MN and WI have gone too? I have hope for WI, but not much.
I look at that Fox poll at +3, Ras at +5, IBD at +2 Obama and I see a real long night for Obama, but a shocking win for McCain. (http://www.hedgehogreport.com/)
Obama can win the popular vote by 10 and still lose the election
freerepublic:
The popular vote is irrelevent. It's unlikely McCain will win the popular vote.
Obama will likely win California and New York by 25 or 30 points or more.
And black turnout in the South will reduce McCain's margins to single digits.
But who cares?
Whether you win a state by 1% or 20%, a win is a win is a win in the electoral college.
All McCain has to do is hold the Bush states and steal Pennsylvania. I believe whoever wins PA will win the election. The west is hard because of the growth in the hispanic population and liberal California refugees. So while I'm still hoping to eke out wins in Nevada and Colorado I am not counting on them.
Let me tell you, I've seen the internals of the PA polls having Obama leading by 7, 8 or more. They are complete and utter BS. They have Obama winning SW Pennsylvania and Northeast PA by 10 points. Hillary won many of those counties 3:1. These are socially conservative voters. These are older voters. They are the salt of the earth people that Obama said clung to their religion and guns. They don't like radical change. They will not vote for B. Obama who spent 20 years in Wright's church of hate. .
If you look at the last Mason Dixon poll that had Obama with a 4 point lead 47-43 with 10% undecided, the vast majority of whom were white and rural in SW and NE PA, this is very, very, very do-able.
Seriously, if you are still undecided after watching Obama carpet bomb the airwaves outspending McCain 4:1, you aren't going to vote for him no matter what. Obama outspent Hillary 4:1 and still lost by 10 points.
McCain will win PA and with it the White House. Do not get discouraged. Get out the vote
The popular vote is irrelevent. It's unlikely McCain will win the popular vote.
Obama will likely win California and New York by 25 or 30 points or more.
And black turnout in the South will reduce McCain's margins to single digits.
But who cares?
Whether you win a state by 1% or 20%, a win is a win is a win in the electoral college.
All McCain has to do is hold the Bush states and steal Pennsylvania. I believe whoever wins PA will win the election. The west is hard because of the growth in the hispanic population and liberal California refugees. So while I'm still hoping to eke out wins in Nevada and Colorado I am not counting on them.
Let me tell you, I've seen the internals of the PA polls having Obama leading by 7, 8 or more. They are complete and utter BS. They have Obama winning SW Pennsylvania and Northeast PA by 10 points. Hillary won many of those counties 3:1. These are socially conservative voters. These are older voters. They are the salt of the earth people that Obama said clung to their religion and guns. They don't like radical change. They will not vote for B. Obama who spent 20 years in Wright's church of hate. .
If you look at the last Mason Dixon poll that had Obama with a 4 point lead 47-43 with 10% undecided, the vast majority of whom were white and rural in SW and NE PA, this is very, very, very do-able.
Seriously, if you are still undecided after watching Obama carpet bomb the airwaves outspending McCain 4:1, you aren't going to vote for him no matter what. Obama outspent Hillary 4:1 and still lost by 10 points.
McCain will win PA and with it the White House. Do not get discouraged. Get out the vote
GALLUP BS FINAL POLL: OBAMA 55, MCCAIN 44
The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain
In the final poll, 38% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats, 34% as independents and 26% as Republicans. Among likely voters, the figures are 39%, 31% and 29%, respectively.
In the final poll, 38% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats, 34% as independents and 26% as Republicans. Among likely voters, the figures are 39%, 31% and 29%, respectively.
McCain is Ahead by 1 Point Among Likely Voters on Election day
''....More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.” (pew)
Note: Pew Research over samples Dems & independents. and also shows Obama leading independents 45-39 while other polls show Mccain & Obama breaking even among Independents.
Note: Pew Research over samples Dems & independents. and also shows Obama leading independents 45-39 while other polls show Mccain & Obama breaking even among Independents.
New Pew Poll: 052%, M46% [From 053%, M38% less than one week ago]
MCCAIN GAINS IN THIS POLL 9 POINTS LESS THEN A WEEK
Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days McCain Narrows Gap
Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42%for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.
Pew’s final survey indicates that the remaining undecided vote breaks slightly in McCain’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Obama holds a 52% to 46% advantage, with 1% each going to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr.
Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days McCain Narrows Gap
Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42%for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.
Pew’s final survey indicates that the remaining undecided vote breaks slightly in McCain’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Obama holds a 52% to 46% advantage, with 1% each going to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr.
LOL!!!!Fox News Network given 6 hours Ultimatum by API: Air the Michelle Obama tape or else face a legal battle for a breach of contract
API chose Fox News Network as a partner in Michelle Obama tapes’ deal, due to the advise received from all the readers who informed API that the News outlet was one we could trust to air the tape unedited.
Now that the Network has not done as agreed on the 28th of last month, API remains with only one choice in order to force the issue to be resolved immediately. The choice API has now chosen is to give an ultimatum to Fox News Network and hope the situation will be resolved in a few hours to come.
Today afternoon, API took a bold step to give Fox News Network a six hours ultimatum to decide on an immediate release of the tape - “that the tape be aired as soon as possible, latest tomorrow the 3rd of November if it has to have any value in connection with the US Presidential elections taking place on Tuesday the 4th of this month
Now that the Network has not done as agreed on the 28th of last month, API remains with only one choice in order to force the issue to be resolved immediately. The choice API has now chosen is to give an ultimatum to Fox News Network and hope the situation will be resolved in a few hours to come.
Today afternoon, API took a bold step to give Fox News Network a six hours ultimatum to decide on an immediate release of the tape - “that the tape be aired as soon as possible, latest tomorrow the 3rd of November if it has to have any value in connection with the US Presidential elections taking place on Tuesday the 4th of this month
Adviser: "McCain to win every red state...probably win Pennsylvania and Iowa."
On a brief jump flight from Philadelphia to Scranton, McCain adviser Charlie Black and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback came back to talk up the campaign's conviction that the glass if half full. "Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa," Brownback said. "Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa."
He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black.
"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa." Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state.
He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black.
"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa." Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state.
Rasmussen:Beware of Exit Polls
Democrats still ache over Election Day 2004 when exit polling showed John Kerry about to become the next president of the United States. The only problem was that the actual vote count put George W. Bush back in the White House for four more years.
And that came just four years after the disastrous exit polling in 2000, when the race on Election Night was called first for Al Gore, then for Bush and then at 4 a.m. was declared “too close to call.”
Many voters wonder why they can’t ever seem to get it right?
Part of the frustration may stem from the fact that the primary value of exit polling is to help us understand why people voted the way they did. This is an entirely different task than trying to predict a winner for Internet junkies who can’t wait a few more hours until actual votes are counted.
Reviewing Fox News/Rasmussen Reports data from key battleground states raises a couple red flags about the use of early exit polling data to predict a winner. Understanding this data from polling conducted last Sunday night may save some a repeat of 2004’s heartache.
The bottom line is that in every state we polled--Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia-- Democrats are a lot more eager to take exit polls than Republicans.
In five of the six states, a majority of Democrats say they would be Very Likely to participate in the exit polling process. At the same time, in five of the six states, fewer than 40% of Republicans would be willing to do the same.
In every state, Republicans are at least twice as likely as Democrats to say that they are not at all willing to take an exit poll.
Unaffiliated voters tend to align more closely to Republicans in all six states in both willingness and unwillingness to participate in exit polls.
In Colorado, for example, 64% of likely voters say they are at least somewhat likely to take an exit poll. But take a closer look at the numbers: While 52% of Democrats say they are Very Likely to participate in an exit poll, just 36% of Republicans agree.
In addition to that 16-point spread between Democrats and Republicans, 16% of Colorado’s GOP voters say they are not at all likely to take an exit poll versus eight percent (8%) of Democrats.
There’s an identical 16-point split in North Carolina, where 52% of Democrats say they are Very Likely to take an exit poll, but just 36% of Republicans agree. Only six percent (6%) of Democrats say they are not at all likely to take an exit poll, a view shared by 14% of Republican voters.
The closest of the battleground states is Ohio where there’s only an 11-point gap between Republicans and Democrats. Just 43% of Republican voters describe themselves as Very Likely to participate in an exit poll compared to 54% of Democrats.
Again, just seven percent (7%) of Democratic voters say they are not likely to take an exit poll at all. Compare that with 12% of Republicans who say the same.
Then there’s the issue of early voting, which is expected to reach unprecedented levels this year. Nationwide, Rasmussen Reports polling suggests as many as 37% of voters may cast their ballot before Tuesday.
In four of the battleground states, among those who had voted by last Sunday, Obama voters outnumber McCain voters by 20-plus points. In Missouri, early voters are evenly divided between the two candidates, while in Colorado Obama voters best McCain voters by “only” 15 points.
In Florida, which is typical of the others, 62% of those who have already voted cast their ballots for the Democrat, while 38% voted for McCain. In Virginia, 35% of early voters opted for the Republican, but 65% voted for Obama.
In part to compensate for this, exit polling has already begun in the 18 states where early voting is allowed. On the basis of our data from the battleground states, however, the responses appear likely to be weighted heavily in Obama’s favor since his voters far outnumber McCain’s. And, remember, Democrats are more willing to play the exit poll game than Republicans.
Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International which handled exit polling in 2004 will again conduct the polls that will be used by the Associated Press and by ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX and NBC. They’re going to great lengths to keep the data under wraps until 5 pm Eastern on Election Day, so any exit data released prior to that time is not from the “official” news consortium.
It was early poll numbers leaked in 2004 that showed Kerry leading Bush, contrary to the final results. One of those in charge of the polling later concluded that the discrepancy was because “Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters.” Sound familiar?
And that came just four years after the disastrous exit polling in 2000, when the race on Election Night was called first for Al Gore, then for Bush and then at 4 a.m. was declared “too close to call.”
Many voters wonder why they can’t ever seem to get it right?
Part of the frustration may stem from the fact that the primary value of exit polling is to help us understand why people voted the way they did. This is an entirely different task than trying to predict a winner for Internet junkies who can’t wait a few more hours until actual votes are counted.
Reviewing Fox News/Rasmussen Reports data from key battleground states raises a couple red flags about the use of early exit polling data to predict a winner. Understanding this data from polling conducted last Sunday night may save some a repeat of 2004’s heartache.
The bottom line is that in every state we polled--Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia-- Democrats are a lot more eager to take exit polls than Republicans.
In five of the six states, a majority of Democrats say they would be Very Likely to participate in the exit polling process. At the same time, in five of the six states, fewer than 40% of Republicans would be willing to do the same.
In every state, Republicans are at least twice as likely as Democrats to say that they are not at all willing to take an exit poll.
Unaffiliated voters tend to align more closely to Republicans in all six states in both willingness and unwillingness to participate in exit polls.
In Colorado, for example, 64% of likely voters say they are at least somewhat likely to take an exit poll. But take a closer look at the numbers: While 52% of Democrats say they are Very Likely to participate in an exit poll, just 36% of Republicans agree.
In addition to that 16-point spread between Democrats and Republicans, 16% of Colorado’s GOP voters say they are not at all likely to take an exit poll versus eight percent (8%) of Democrats.
There’s an identical 16-point split in North Carolina, where 52% of Democrats say they are Very Likely to take an exit poll, but just 36% of Republicans agree. Only six percent (6%) of Democrats say they are not at all likely to take an exit poll, a view shared by 14% of Republican voters.
The closest of the battleground states is Ohio where there’s only an 11-point gap between Republicans and Democrats. Just 43% of Republican voters describe themselves as Very Likely to participate in an exit poll compared to 54% of Democrats.
Again, just seven percent (7%) of Democratic voters say they are not likely to take an exit poll at all. Compare that with 12% of Republicans who say the same.
Then there’s the issue of early voting, which is expected to reach unprecedented levels this year. Nationwide, Rasmussen Reports polling suggests as many as 37% of voters may cast their ballot before Tuesday.
In four of the battleground states, among those who had voted by last Sunday, Obama voters outnumber McCain voters by 20-plus points. In Missouri, early voters are evenly divided between the two candidates, while in Colorado Obama voters best McCain voters by “only” 15 points.
In Florida, which is typical of the others, 62% of those who have already voted cast their ballots for the Democrat, while 38% voted for McCain. In Virginia, 35% of early voters opted for the Republican, but 65% voted for Obama.
In part to compensate for this, exit polling has already begun in the 18 states where early voting is allowed. On the basis of our data from the battleground states, however, the responses appear likely to be weighted heavily in Obama’s favor since his voters far outnumber McCain’s. And, remember, Democrats are more willing to play the exit poll game than Republicans.
Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International which handled exit polling in 2004 will again conduct the polls that will be used by the Associated Press and by ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX and NBC. They’re going to great lengths to keep the data under wraps until 5 pm Eastern on Election Day, so any exit data released prior to that time is not from the “official” news consortium.
It was early poll numbers leaked in 2004 that showed Kerry leading Bush, contrary to the final results. One of those in charge of the polling later concluded that the discrepancy was because “Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters.” Sound familiar?
TWO DAYS TO VICTORY
"I want to repeat to you one more time, my friends -- we're going to win, and we're going to bring real change to Washington," he said at a rally in Wallingford, Pennsylvania.
"With your help, we can win. ... We need a new direction, and we have to fight for it," McCain said, urging voters to volunteer in the final hours of campaigning.
"Two days, two days to victory," he said to roaring applause.
McCain wins mock high school vote
Arizona Sen. John McCain won a landslide victory in the mock presidential elections held at Cleveland and Bradley County high schools.The Republican ticket of McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin won 61.2 percent of the 2,121 votes cast at Cleveland High School, Bradley Central High School and Walker Valley High School. McCain received 1,298 to 823 votes cast for Ill. Sen. Barack Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware.Cleveland resident Sarah Palen, a student at Cleveland State Community College, said in a Friday interview politics should not drive a wedge between people regardless of who wins."I get along with everybody," she said. "What they believe in (politically) doesn't make a friend."Her best friend is Jessica Spors, who favors Obama."We are inseparable," Jessica said. "We do everything together."The vote among Cleveland High School students was the only three of the schools where the vote was close. McCain drew 322 votes (52.61 percent) to 290 (47.39 percent) favoring Obama.The McCain-Palin ticket collected 395 (66.05 percent) at Walker Valley to 203 (33.95 percent) for Obama and Biden. At Bradley Central, the numbers were 581 to 330 or 63.78 to 36.22 percent.
SURVEY USA POLL IN VIRGINIA: OBAMA 50 , MCCAIN 46 9 (M +5)
A Month Ago, McCain Led by 9 Among VA Whites ... Now He Leads by 17 Among VA Whites ... And So ... Virginia whites veer back toward John McCain in the campaign's final 72 hours, helping the Republican to close to within 4 points of Democrat Barack Obama, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Obama, in interviews through Saturday night 11/01/08, leads 50% to 46%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA VA poll 1 week ago, McCain is up 3, Obama is down 2. Among voters age 35 to 49, McCain leads today for the first time in 7 weeks. Immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 22 points among white Virginians. That narrowed to a 9-point McCain lead when the stock market fell. Now, at the wire, McCain is back up to a 17 point advantage among whites. In the Shenandoah, McCain moves ahead of Obama. In the DC suburbs, McCain slices into Obama's lead. Virginia men continued to be more affected by events than Virginia women. 800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Of them, 748 were registered to vote. Of them, 672 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day.
IBD/TIPP 11/2/08: Obama: 46.7; Mccain: 44.6; Undecided: 8.7
The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates
Datamar Survey: Florida a dead heat ( MCCAIN PICKED UP 2.3 %)
BOTH OBAMA & MCCAIN GET 46.7%
(PARTY ID: DEM 44, REP 39)
IN 2006 PARTY ID VOTE WAS: REP 39%, DEM 36%
IN 2004 PARTY ID VOTE WAS: REP 41, DEM 37%
if the turnout vote will be the same as 2004 , Mccain leads by a few points
(PARTY ID: DEM 44, REP 39)
IN 2006 PARTY ID VOTE WAS: REP 39%, DEM 36%
IN 2004 PARTY ID VOTE WAS: REP 41, DEM 37%
if the turnout vote will be the same as 2004 , Mccain leads by a few points
M/D POLL: MCCAIN LEADING IN NC & OH
Mason-Dixon North Carolina General Election
John McCain 49% (last poll 47%)
Barack Obama 46% (last poll 47%)
Mason-Dixon Ohio General Election
John McCain 47% (last poll 46%)
Barack Obama 45% (last poll 45%)
John McCain 49% (last poll 47%)
Barack Obama 46% (last poll 47%)
Mason-Dixon Ohio General Election
John McCain 47% (last poll 46%)
Barack Obama 45% (last poll 45%)
D/H TRACKING: OBAMA 50 , MCCAIN 45 (M +2)
Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll finds that Obama-Biden lead McCain-Palin among likely voters, 50%-45%, with 5% undecided. The Poll also finds that 27% of voters have already voted. Among these voters, 51% support Obama and 46% support McCain.
As goes Gallup ...so goes Zogby....
OBAMA 49.5
MCCAIN 43.9
Pollster John Zogby: “Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.
“So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.
“Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else’s) health.”
MCCAIN 43.9
Pollster John Zogby: “Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.
“So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.
“Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else’s) health.”
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Fred barnes predicts a Mccain Victory
on FoxNews Beltway Boys Fred barnes prediction is McCain (279 EV)
M/D POLL: MCCAIN MAKING A COMEBACK IN VIRGINIA
A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.
Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.
Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.
Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.
Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.
Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.
Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.
AS MISSOURI GOES...SO GOES THE NATION....
A Recent Politico poll has McCain with a 3 point advantage over Obama!
McCain = 50
Obama = 47
Undecideds = 3(?)
Now, figuring in that the undecideds are breaking towards McCain at a 4 to 1 ratio, it looks like McCain will take Missouri.
Missouri has historically picked the next President of the United States 25 out of 26times.
McCain = 50
Obama = 47
Undecideds = 3(?)
Now, figuring in that the undecideds are breaking towards McCain at a 4 to 1 ratio, it looks like McCain will take Missouri.
Missouri has historically picked the next President of the United States 25 out of 26times.
BIDEN: MCCAIN NEVER GIVES UP
This election is going to be a lot closer than everybody thinks it is,” Biden said. “I think it’s going to be close in Florida, it’s going to be close here, it’s going to be close in Missouri, I think it’s going to close - I don’t think it will be that close in Pennsylvania, I feel very good about Pennsylvania.”
“I think it’s going to be close in North Carolina, um, you know, Virginia feels really good but, you know, it ain’t till it happens,” he laughed. “We’re going everywhere. Montana, Arizona, I mean we’re everywhere we can be.”
McCain, he said, isn’t going away quietly. “One of the things I’ve admired about John, and I’ve considered him — why I’ve considered him a friend. He does, he never gives up,” said Biden.
“I think it’s going to be close in North Carolina, um, you know, Virginia feels really good but, you know, it ain’t till it happens,” he laughed. “We’re going everywhere. Montana, Arizona, I mean we’re everywhere we can be.”
McCain, he said, isn’t going away quietly. “One of the things I’ve admired about John, and I’ve considered him — why I’ve considered him a friend. He does, he never gives up,” said Biden.
Rasmussen: 6 % COULD CHANGE MIND, 2 % UNDECIDED (HOPE FOR MCCAIN)
Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and won’t change their mind. Forty-three percent (43%) say the same about McCain. Six percent (6%) have a preference for one of the major party candidates but could change their mind, 2% plan to vote for a third party option and 2% remain undecided
Morris: may expact Earthquake
"There is a seismic shift for McCain," Morris told Newsmax. "It could turn into an earthquake this weekend."
"I think a large of the credit goes to GOPTrust.com for its courageous use of the Rev. Wright ad and the many tens of thousands who have donated almost $9 million before election day," Morris said
"I think a large of the credit goes to GOPTrust.com for its courageous use of the Rev. Wright ad and the many tens of thousands who have donated almost $9 million before election day," Morris said
ZOGBY: MAC IS BACK
Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."
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