Monday, October 27, 2008
Rasmussen - 6 Swing states within margin of error
Colorado
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia
Obama's lead in 5 from 5-1 point
Mccain leads in NC with 1 point
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia
Obama's lead in 5 from 5-1 point
Mccain leads in NC with 1 point
PPP (D) North Carolina: O-49%, M-48% (Dems oversampled by 14-points from 2004)
Internals: R-35%, D-48%, I-17% 2004 Exit Poll: R-40%, D-39%, I-21%
IBD/TIPP poll Obama's lead down to 2.8
IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Fifteen Posted Monday, October 27, 2008 After seesawing between 3.2 and 3.9 points over the weekend, Obama's lead slipped to 2.8 Monday.
Obama 47 , Mccain 44.2
8 undecided
Mccain get 33% of the jewish vote
Obama 47 , Mccain 44.2
8 undecided
Mccain get 33% of the jewish vote
Rove: Obama won't get any undecided voters?
Karl Rove made a statement in passing on Fox news got passed over, but as time has passed I've decided it is the unspoken key to this election. Paraphrased: Whatever Sen. Obama is polling on election day is the percentage of votes he will receive. That's what happened in the primaries. It's important for him to be over 50%. In those states where he is under 50% he will be in trouble. It took a while for it to sink it, but what he is saying is that the undecided vote will go almost 100% against Obama
MCCAIN'S ECONOMIC SPEECH
I just finished meeting with my team of economic and business advisors. We have been meeting throughout this campaign, discussing the state of our economy and what we need to do to get this country back on track. This is a team of extraordinary leaders in business and government, with great insight into what we need to do to rebuild confidence, restore economic growth and create millions of new jobs. They, and many others, have helped me develop dynamic new economic policies, and in a McCain Administration they will continue to advise me and help enact these important actions to get our economy moving again.
I have been through tough times like this before and the American people can trust me — based on my record and results — to take strong action to end this crisis, restore jobs and bring security to Americans. I will never be the one who sits on the sidelines waiting for things to get better. I believe that to lead, you must put forward your vision of our future, and that is what I have done.
With one week left in this campaign, the choice facing Americans is stark. My economic goals and policies are very clear — One, I will protect your savings and retirement accounts and get this stock market rising again. Two, I will keep people in their homes and fix our housing market. Three, I will create millions of high-paying jobs through tax cuts that spur economic growth — particularly for the small businesses which create 70 percent of all new jobs in this country.
READ THE ENTIRE SPEECH AT THIS LINK:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/27/happening-now-mccain-to-target-obama-on-taxes/#more-26636
I have been through tough times like this before and the American people can trust me — based on my record and results — to take strong action to end this crisis, restore jobs and bring security to Americans. I will never be the one who sits on the sidelines waiting for things to get better. I believe that to lead, you must put forward your vision of our future, and that is what I have done.
With one week left in this campaign, the choice facing Americans is stark. My economic goals and policies are very clear — One, I will protect your savings and retirement accounts and get this stock market rising again. Two, I will keep people in their homes and fix our housing market. Three, I will create millions of high-paying jobs through tax cuts that spur economic growth — particularly for the small businesses which create 70 percent of all new jobs in this country.
READ THE ENTIRE SPEECH AT THIS LINK:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/27/happening-now-mccain-to-target-obama-on-taxes/#more-26636
Experts Say He Can Still Win
There's no denying it: John McCain faces an uphill battle in his quest for the White House.
The latest polls, which show the Republican presidential candidate running behind Democratic rival Barack Obama, confirm that the Arizona senator's electoral path to victory is narrowing.
What Do the Pundits Think?Republican strategist and commentator Karl Rove: "Mr. McCain has only one hope: to drive home doubts about Mr. Obama based on his record, and share as much as he can about his own values and vision to reassure voters."
But McCain still has some moves to make. And over the last week or so, a handful of experts have weighed in on what he should do in the remaining days of the campaign to catch up with Obama and win on November 4.
Republican mastermind Karl Rove wrote in The Wall Street Journal that McCain "has only one hope: to drive home doubts about Mr. Obama based on his record, and share as much as he can about his own values and vision to reassure voters."
Douglas E. Schoen, who worked as a top pollster for President Bill Clinton's 1996 campaign, argued in Politico that McCain has to frame the election as a choice of who's better prepared to lead the country at a time of multiple crises.
"Lay out an economic plan that sounded like a Democratic economic plan instead of a Republican economic plan, [one] that ran to the left of Obama on economics," said Democratic pollster and strategist Celinda Lake in Time.
Writing in the New York Post, conservative pundit Dick Morris believes that McCain should "warn voters of impending socialism in America. The recent bailout legislation puts the United States government inside the ownership, management and direction of many of our major companies and financial institutions."
"I would have him just talking about the economy, saying that Obama is going to raise taxes and there’s nothing worse than a tax increase, regardless of who you’re taxing, and this will make this recession deeper," said Republican strategist Ed Rollins in an interview with The Washington Independent.
The latest polls, which show the Republican presidential candidate running behind Democratic rival Barack Obama, confirm that the Arizona senator's electoral path to victory is narrowing.
What Do the Pundits Think?Republican strategist and commentator Karl Rove: "Mr. McCain has only one hope: to drive home doubts about Mr. Obama based on his record, and share as much as he can about his own values and vision to reassure voters."
But McCain still has some moves to make. And over the last week or so, a handful of experts have weighed in on what he should do in the remaining days of the campaign to catch up with Obama and win on November 4.
Republican mastermind Karl Rove wrote in The Wall Street Journal that McCain "has only one hope: to drive home doubts about Mr. Obama based on his record, and share as much as he can about his own values and vision to reassure voters."
Douglas E. Schoen, who worked as a top pollster for President Bill Clinton's 1996 campaign, argued in Politico that McCain has to frame the election as a choice of who's better prepared to lead the country at a time of multiple crises.
"Lay out an economic plan that sounded like a Democratic economic plan instead of a Republican economic plan, [one] that ran to the left of Obama on economics," said Democratic pollster and strategist Celinda Lake in Time.
Writing in the New York Post, conservative pundit Dick Morris believes that McCain should "warn voters of impending socialism in America. The recent bailout legislation puts the United States government inside the ownership, management and direction of many of our major companies and financial institutions."
"I would have him just talking about the economy, saying that Obama is going to raise taxes and there’s nothing worse than a tax increase, regardless of who you’re taxing, and this will make this recession deeper," said Republican strategist Ed Rollins in an interview with The Washington Independent.
Palin new weapon: TITO THE BUILDER
Palin at a rally in Va this morning is on stage with Tito the Builder , telling the crowd his story, and his love for this country; "tito says: i was born in colombia but i am made in the Usa.."
Daily Kos Desperately Spinning Obama 'Redistribution of Wealth' Audio
The Kossacks at the Daily Kos are hitting the panic button over the Obama "redistribution of wealth" audio which has become the hottest political topic on the Web, including the Drudge Report. As NewsBusters Mark Finkelstein has noted, most of the MSM morning TV shows, with the exception of Fox & Friends and Morning Joe, are still continuing to bury this story which your humble correspondent posted earlier today. However, this burial by the MSM is giving little comfort to the denizens of the Daily Kos. Right now they are trying to desperately spin away this story with excuses that Obama talking about "redistribution of wealth" was taken out of context or that we must understand the nuances of what he actually meant:
"Obama is not talking about "radical Marxism." He's simply talking about the possibility for a Legislative procedure that would mirror what the Warren court did for Civil Rights, and make that in accord economically, which the courts do not have the power to do. When we consider how disproportionately the different classes are taxed (the rich regularly pay fewer taxes, percentage wise, than the middle class and paying lower class because they have more loopholes available), then OF COURSE the legislature and organizers should look into "redistributive change."
The user who put this video up, NakedEmperorNews, is a conservative muckraker with titles of videos like "1995 Obama Bizarre, Race Baiting Interview" and "Michelle and Barack Obama INSULT America." The video is a bizarre pastiche of the interview with interjections by NakedEmperorNews that say things like.."
"Obama is not talking about "radical Marxism." He's simply talking about the possibility for a Legislative procedure that would mirror what the Warren court did for Civil Rights, and make that in accord economically, which the courts do not have the power to do. When we consider how disproportionately the different classes are taxed (the rich regularly pay fewer taxes, percentage wise, than the middle class and paying lower class because they have more loopholes available), then OF COURSE the legislature and organizers should look into "redistributive change."
The user who put this video up, NakedEmperorNews, is a conservative muckraker with titles of videos like "1995 Obama Bizarre, Race Baiting Interview" and "Michelle and Barack Obama INSULT America." The video is a bizarre pastiche of the interview with interjections by NakedEmperorNews that say things like.."
Rasmussen: Obama 51 mccain 46
Maybe its a stable lead but not a significant lead, This is not called a Landslide Sealed Victory..
Call It 'The Obama Effect' - Why undecided voters will swing to McCain.
As Election Day draws near, people are wondering if the presidential race will tighten. Will the undecideds swing to McCain, or will Obama continue to maintain his 4 to 11 point lead?
Some point to a "Bradley effect" suggesting that voters are hiding their true feelings from pollsters because of Obama's race, while others say the Bradley effect either never existed or no longer exists. People who think there is a Bradley effect believe that the substantial majority of undecideds are likely to vote for McCain, enabling him to close some of the gap.
McCain should win a larger share of undecided voters than Obama, but it has little to do with race.
With Obama outspending McCain by upwards of 4 to 1, getting enormous traction with newspaper editorial boards, generating the enthusiasm to bring out crowds measured in the tens of thousands, and with Palin treated as more of a punch line than a candidate by the press--it seems likely that if voters are not ready to tell a pollster that they are with Obama, they are unlikely to get there.
But the phenomenon of undecided voters' breaking for McCain need not be called the "Bradley effect." Call it the "Bloomberg effect"--where after $100 million of spending, his mayoral challenger was able to capture essentially all of the 10 point undecided vote. Or call it the "Clinton effect"--where almost all the undecided vote swung away from the popular incumbent and went to Bob Dole. Or call it the "Reagan
effect"--where even during the Republican 1980 primaries, voters were apparently reluctant to say they were going to vote for the "elderly washed up actor" and he got the preponderance of the undecided vote
Some point to a "Bradley effect" suggesting that voters are hiding their true feelings from pollsters because of Obama's race, while others say the Bradley effect either never existed or no longer exists. People who think there is a Bradley effect believe that the substantial majority of undecideds are likely to vote for McCain, enabling him to close some of the gap.
McCain should win a larger share of undecided voters than Obama, but it has little to do with race.
With Obama outspending McCain by upwards of 4 to 1, getting enormous traction with newspaper editorial boards, generating the enthusiasm to bring out crowds measured in the tens of thousands, and with Palin treated as more of a punch line than a candidate by the press--it seems likely that if voters are not ready to tell a pollster that they are with Obama, they are unlikely to get there.
But the phenomenon of undecided voters' breaking for McCain need not be called the "Bradley effect." Call it the "Bloomberg effect"--where after $100 million of spending, his mayoral challenger was able to capture essentially all of the 10 point undecided vote. Or call it the "Clinton effect"--where almost all the undecided vote swung away from the popular incumbent and went to Bob Dole. Or call it the "Reagan
effect"--where even during the Republican 1980 primaries, voters were apparently reluctant to say they were going to vote for the "elderly washed up actor" and he got the preponderance of the undecided vote
POLL: ISRAELI PUBLIC PREFER MCCAIN OVER OBAMA
The Israeli public, that have been tested ,and suffered a setback from un-experienced leaders, would prefer McCain over Obama with 12 Points, 46.4% would vote for McCain, 34% would vote for Obama.
48.6% Think that McCain is a better candidate when it comes to support Israel, to 31.5% that think the same of Obama.
(teleseker, Ynet)
48.6% Think that McCain is a better candidate when it comes to support Israel, to 31.5% that think the same of Obama.
(teleseker, Ynet)
BREAKING:ZOGBY POLL- FLORIDA IS TIED
Obama's lead in Florida is less then 0.4 point:
Obama 47.2
Mccain 46.9
in NC .MO & OH Obama's lead is within the margin of error
Obama 47.2
Mccain 46.9
in NC .MO & OH Obama's lead is within the margin of error
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Mccain's winning argument among Independents: FEAR A ONE PARTY RULE
McCain Raises the Spectre of a Multi-headed Reid-Pelosi-Obama Hydra Controlling Washington, DC
ALBUQUERQUE, NM – There's a topic that Sen; Barack Obama, D-Ill., and his campaign don't seem eager to discuss much, or at all, and it's one that Republicans are raising with increasing frequency in these final days: the notion of one-party rule returning to Washington DC.
Speaking at the New Mexico State Fairgrounds in Albuquerque on Saturday morning, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., raised the prospect of Democrats controlling the White House, the Senate, and the House.
"Senator Obama is measuring the drapes and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending and concede defeat in Iraq," McCain said.
It's one of McCain's closing arguments, and it makes sense. As ABC News' Polling Director Gary Langer points out, many swing-voting independents don't like the idea of one party controlling the executive branch, as well as both houses of Congress.
Independents, by 43-34 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, say divided government is the better way to go.
And by 45-37 percent they say they'd rather see Republicans win control of Congress. (Which ain't gonna happen. As of now, House Republicans lament, the only question is how many seats they lose.)
You're going to hear this argument a lot this week; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., has even come up with a handy nickname for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and (in this construct) President Barack Obama: "RePO".
ALBUQUERQUE, NM – There's a topic that Sen; Barack Obama, D-Ill., and his campaign don't seem eager to discuss much, or at all, and it's one that Republicans are raising with increasing frequency in these final days: the notion of one-party rule returning to Washington DC.
Speaking at the New Mexico State Fairgrounds in Albuquerque on Saturday morning, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., raised the prospect of Democrats controlling the White House, the Senate, and the House.
"Senator Obama is measuring the drapes and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending and concede defeat in Iraq," McCain said.
It's one of McCain's closing arguments, and it makes sense. As ABC News' Polling Director Gary Langer points out, many swing-voting independents don't like the idea of one party controlling the executive branch, as well as both houses of Congress.
Independents, by 43-34 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, say divided government is the better way to go.
And by 45-37 percent they say they'd rather see Republicans win control of Congress. (Which ain't gonna happen. As of now, House Republicans lament, the only question is how many seats they lose.)
You're going to hear this argument a lot this week; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., has even come up with a handy nickname for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and (in this construct) President Barack Obama: "RePO".
Colorado Vote Stats look Promising for McCain (click here for report)
Early Vote Tallies in Colorado hold promise for McCain Nationwide, most polls show John McCain outperforming his Party ID in the Range of 2-4%. This fact is primarily due to a slight edge with independents along with more strength among Republicans than Obama enjoys with Democrats. The early vote stats, along with the active registered voters stats in Colorado are very revealing. 1. Inspite of Democrats having a 26,000 vote edge in the number of Mail In Ballots requested (580240-D to 554485-R) Republicans lead by 2500 in the number of ballots actually returned thus far (184475-D to 186956-R).
Obama’s Hawaii Trips Cost More Than Palin’s Clothes
Barack Obama’s trips to Hawaii on a chartered Boeing 757 each cost more than twice the price of Sarah Palin’s new clothes.
Brad Blakeman, who was in charge of scheduling for President Bush, says a Boeing 757 costs about $20,000 an hour for fuel, crew, and maintenance. Since a trip to Hawaii entails 10 hours of flying time from Chicago, the total cost for each round-trip comes to about $400,000.
Obama used the Boeing 757 for trips to Hawaii over the summer for a vacation and again last week to see his failing grandmother. Admirable though that visit was, “By Obama using a private jet to go on a purely personal visit to see his grandma, he’s wasting not only energy, but he’s using the money that his supporters have given him for campaign purposes,” Blakeman says. “It’s a purely personal visit paid for with campaign funds.”
Brad Blakeman, who was in charge of scheduling for President Bush, says a Boeing 757 costs about $20,000 an hour for fuel, crew, and maintenance. Since a trip to Hawaii entails 10 hours of flying time from Chicago, the total cost for each round-trip comes to about $400,000.
Obama used the Boeing 757 for trips to Hawaii over the summer for a vacation and again last week to see his failing grandmother. Admirable though that visit was, “By Obama using a private jet to go on a purely personal visit to see his grandma, he’s wasting not only energy, but he’s using the money that his supporters have given him for campaign purposes,” Blakeman says. “It’s a purely personal visit paid for with campaign funds.”
Why Obama has to stay above 50 percent (click for the entire article)
A GOP operative argues that in a race between a white and black candidate, "undecideds" vote white. Meaning, "undecideds" will break for McCain.
As his campaign manager has described it, John McCain is now looking at a "narrow-victory scenario." "The fact that we're in the race at all," added Steve Schmidt, "is a miracle. Because the environment is so bad and the head wind is so strong."
But talk of miracles and head winds aside, I think John McCain really does have a decent shot at winning, and that's not just because I'm a longtime Republican political operative. Despite what the polls seem to be saying, a closer look at the numbers shows that a Democratic victory is not a foregone conclusion. Why? Because if history is any guide, Barack Obama, as an African-American candidate for political office, needs to be polling consistently above 50 percent to win. And in crucial battleground states, he isn't.
Much has been written about the so-called Bradley Effect, in which voters lie to pollsters about whether they're willing to vote for a black candidate. The Bradley Effect is meant to explain why, for example, Doug Wilder had a healthy 9-point lead up to Election Day in the 1989 Virginia governor's race, and a similar lead in exit polling, only to squeak through to victory by one-half of 1 percent. But I'm not talking about voters telling pollsters they're going to support Candidate A when they're really going to vote for Candidate B. There are two other ways in which voters can mislead pollsters about their intentions. One is to decline to participate in a poll. (More than one expert has suggested that conservatives are more likely to decline than liberals, meaning there could be many uncounted McCain voters.) The other is when pollsters participate in a poll but withhold information. Specifically, they say they're undecided when they really aren't. It's the latter phenomenon in particular, I think, that gives John McCain a chance at winning enough swing states to reach the White House.
There's an old rule in politics that an incumbent candidate is always in danger when he dips under 50 percent, even if he is leading his opponent in the polls. It's all about the undecideds. In a race with an incumbent candidate and a challenger, on Election Day the undecideds tend to break for the challenger, at rates as high as 4 to 1. If an incumbent is polling at, say, 47 to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, there's a good chance he's going to wind up losing 49 to 51. As it's sometimes expressed, if you're an incumbent, what you see is what you get.
The same pattern seems to be true for African-American candidates in much of the country. If you're a black candidate running against a white candidate, what you see is what you get. And it doesn't matter whether you're an incumbent or a challenger. If you're not polling above 50 percent, you should be worried. As of this writing, Barack Obama is not polling consistently above 50 percent in a number of electoral-vote-rich swing states, including Ohio and Florida. He should be worried.
As you look at the polling data in the homestretch of this election, pay close attention whenever you see any numbers, be they statewide or national, where Sen. Obama is below 50 percent. So long as there are more than a handful of voters describing themselves as undecided, I will maintain that Sen. McCain is very much in the race. Even if Sen. Obama were to open a larger lead, my basis for analyzing things would remain the same. Are there enough undecided voters in crucial states to bridge whatever gap exists in the head-to-head? If so, don't be shocked if on Election Day, Sen. McCain is your winner.
As his campaign manager has described it, John McCain is now looking at a "narrow-victory scenario." "The fact that we're in the race at all," added Steve Schmidt, "is a miracle. Because the environment is so bad and the head wind is so strong."
But talk of miracles and head winds aside, I think John McCain really does have a decent shot at winning, and that's not just because I'm a longtime Republican political operative. Despite what the polls seem to be saying, a closer look at the numbers shows that a Democratic victory is not a foregone conclusion. Why? Because if history is any guide, Barack Obama, as an African-American candidate for political office, needs to be polling consistently above 50 percent to win. And in crucial battleground states, he isn't.
Much has been written about the so-called Bradley Effect, in which voters lie to pollsters about whether they're willing to vote for a black candidate. The Bradley Effect is meant to explain why, for example, Doug Wilder had a healthy 9-point lead up to Election Day in the 1989 Virginia governor's race, and a similar lead in exit polling, only to squeak through to victory by one-half of 1 percent. But I'm not talking about voters telling pollsters they're going to support Candidate A when they're really going to vote for Candidate B. There are two other ways in which voters can mislead pollsters about their intentions. One is to decline to participate in a poll. (More than one expert has suggested that conservatives are more likely to decline than liberals, meaning there could be many uncounted McCain voters.) The other is when pollsters participate in a poll but withhold information. Specifically, they say they're undecided when they really aren't. It's the latter phenomenon in particular, I think, that gives John McCain a chance at winning enough swing states to reach the White House.
There's an old rule in politics that an incumbent candidate is always in danger when he dips under 50 percent, even if he is leading his opponent in the polls. It's all about the undecideds. In a race with an incumbent candidate and a challenger, on Election Day the undecideds tend to break for the challenger, at rates as high as 4 to 1. If an incumbent is polling at, say, 47 to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, there's a good chance he's going to wind up losing 49 to 51. As it's sometimes expressed, if you're an incumbent, what you see is what you get.
The same pattern seems to be true for African-American candidates in much of the country. If you're a black candidate running against a white candidate, what you see is what you get. And it doesn't matter whether you're an incumbent or a challenger. If you're not polling above 50 percent, you should be worried. As of this writing, Barack Obama is not polling consistently above 50 percent in a number of electoral-vote-rich swing states, including Ohio and Florida. He should be worried.
As you look at the polling data in the homestretch of this election, pay close attention whenever you see any numbers, be they statewide or national, where Sen. Obama is below 50 percent. So long as there are more than a handful of voters describing themselves as undecided, I will maintain that Sen. McCain is very much in the race. Even if Sen. Obama were to open a larger lead, my basis for analyzing things would remain the same. Are there enough undecided voters in crucial states to bridge whatever gap exists in the head-to-head? If so, don't be shocked if on Election Day, Sen. McCain is your winner.
McCain: ‘I guarantee you I’m going to win it’
US Republican presidential nominee John McCain says he can guarantee a win in next week’s election, but says the result will be very close.
Senator McCain, who has been trailing Democratic rival Barack Obama by more than 10 points in some national and state polls, said his campaign was “doing fine” with the polls nine days away.
“Those polls have consistently shown me much farther behind then we actually are,” he said. “We’re doing fine.
“We’ve closed in the last week and if we continue this close in the next week you’re going to be up very late on election night.
“I guarantee you that two weeks from now you’ll see that this has been a very close race and I guarantee you I’m going to win it.”
“We are very competitive in those areas and we’re going to have to just get out our vote and work very hard over the next nine days.”
Senator McCain, who has been trailing Democratic rival Barack Obama by more than 10 points in some national and state polls, said his campaign was “doing fine” with the polls nine days away.
“Those polls have consistently shown me much farther behind then we actually are,” he said. “We’re doing fine.
“We’ve closed in the last week and if we continue this close in the next week you’re going to be up very late on election night.
“I guarantee you that two weeks from now you’ll see that this has been a very close race and I guarantee you I’m going to win it.”
“We are very competitive in those areas and we’re going to have to just get out our vote and work very hard over the next nine days.”
Graham at a OH rally: Joe keep Talking
while mentioning his name , the crowd booo'd him, Sen. L. Graham responded: nooo dont BOO him, Keep it up Joe! we need you now more then ever!! lol
Mccain has done his Best
Steve Schmidt and his colleagues took John McCain further than he had any reasonable right to, given the political climate.
The most popular parlor game in Washington, D.C., these days is the bludgeoning of the McCain campaign. It started with Bill Kristol’s column in The New York Times recently in which he wrote, “It’s time to fire the campaign. What McCain needs to do is junk the whole thing and start over.”
Right. That would have worked out well, I’m sure.
One of the physical laws of politics is that if your campaign wins, you’re a genius. If you lose, you’re an idiot.
I know and have worked with Obama’s lead adviser David Axelrod, and he’s as smart as anyone I’ve worked with in politics and deserves a lot of credit for a well-run campaign. But I know he’d be the first to admit that he just had the good judgment to saddle up on Secretariat.
I also know and have worked with McCain’s guru Steve Schmidt, who is also one of the most talented players in the game. He just saddled up on Seabiscuit. But he’s running against Secretariat. And only one great horse gets to win.
I don’t defend everything the campaign has done. But I also don’t think they had many options, and they tried them all.
Nevertheless, while voters have yet to decide this election, the bloody harpooning of the McCain campaign has begun: “Why didn’t they let McCain be McCain?” “The campaign was all tactics and no strategy.” “The Palin pick was a disaster.” “The message was unfocused and campaign poorly executed.” “Why haven’t they produced ads attacking Jeremiah Wright?” “The campaign isn’t positive enough.” “The campaign isn’t negative enough.”
Of course almost all the shots come from consultants and hacks who didn’t get hired, or were fired by the McCain campaign. Or were part of some past presidential campaign in which they still revel in the glory and clink toasts to one another as if they cured the measles. Many of these people, who profess to “love McCain,” are firing blistering shots at the campaign through the press, which serves only one purpose. And it ain’t to help McCain.
There is a fundamental question we always ask in political polls. Is the country headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track? Whenever the wrong track number is over 50 it spells trouble for the incumbent party. The most recently recorded number is the worst in the history of polling. Only nine percent of respondents think the country is headed in the right direction. I know what you’re thinking. “Who are those nine percent?”
So, by this measure, John McCain should be polling at about nine percent. And yet, Schmidt and company ran a good enough campaign that McCain went into the Republican Convention tied. And came out of it ahead. The only real surprise in this race is that it was ever close.
The most popular parlor game in Washington, D.C., these days is the bludgeoning of the McCain campaign. It started with Bill Kristol’s column in The New York Times recently in which he wrote, “It’s time to fire the campaign. What McCain needs to do is junk the whole thing and start over.”
Right. That would have worked out well, I’m sure.
One of the physical laws of politics is that if your campaign wins, you’re a genius. If you lose, you’re an idiot.
I know and have worked with Obama’s lead adviser David Axelrod, and he’s as smart as anyone I’ve worked with in politics and deserves a lot of credit for a well-run campaign. But I know he’d be the first to admit that he just had the good judgment to saddle up on Secretariat.
I also know and have worked with McCain’s guru Steve Schmidt, who is also one of the most talented players in the game. He just saddled up on Seabiscuit. But he’s running against Secretariat. And only one great horse gets to win.
I don’t defend everything the campaign has done. But I also don’t think they had many options, and they tried them all.
Nevertheless, while voters have yet to decide this election, the bloody harpooning of the McCain campaign has begun: “Why didn’t they let McCain be McCain?” “The campaign was all tactics and no strategy.” “The Palin pick was a disaster.” “The message was unfocused and campaign poorly executed.” “Why haven’t they produced ads attacking Jeremiah Wright?” “The campaign isn’t positive enough.” “The campaign isn’t negative enough.”
Of course almost all the shots come from consultants and hacks who didn’t get hired, or were fired by the McCain campaign. Or were part of some past presidential campaign in which they still revel in the glory and clink toasts to one another as if they cured the measles. Many of these people, who profess to “love McCain,” are firing blistering shots at the campaign through the press, which serves only one purpose. And it ain’t to help McCain.
There is a fundamental question we always ask in political polls. Is the country headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track? Whenever the wrong track number is over 50 it spells trouble for the incumbent party. The most recently recorded number is the worst in the history of polling. Only nine percent of respondents think the country is headed in the right direction. I know what you’re thinking. “Who are those nine percent?”
So, by this measure, John McCain should be polling at about nine percent. And yet, Schmidt and company ran a good enough campaign that McCain went into the Republican Convention tied. And came out of it ahead. The only real surprise in this race is that it was ever close.
Minnesota Poll: Obama's lead only 5%, under 50, Colmen leads Franken
A St. Cloud State University poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads Republican opponent John McCain 42 percent to 37 percent in Minnesota.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate race continues to display the volatility seen in polls throughout the season. After earlier surveys showed DFL challenger Al Franken with an edge, the SCSU poll shows Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman leading with 36 percent, compared with 27 percent for Franken. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley trails with 16 percent.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate race continues to display the volatility seen in polls throughout the season. After earlier surveys showed DFL challenger Al Franken with an edge, the SCSU poll shows Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman leading with 36 percent, compared with 27 percent for Franken. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley trails with 16 percent.
ABC/WAPO Tracking Poll: O-52%, M-45% (McCain up 4-points in 3 days)
Obama-52%, McCain-45%
Party Weighting D-37, R-30, I-29
Party Weighting D-37, R-30, I-29
Obama wouldn't survive in Israel
Obama wouldn't survive in Israel
By RON FESTINGER
The little property affair that was exposed in Obama's past would have shocked us here to the tips of our middle fingers. We have to learn from the Americans a lesson in proportion.
Barring unforeseen developments at the last moment, it appears that Senator Barack Obama will chosen as the next president of the United States.
Without relating to the deep apprehensions that this choice awakens, there is no question that if Obama resided in the State of Israel, he wouldn't be able today to run for head of government, and perhaps not for any public office whatsoever; on the contrary he would find himself entangled up to his neck in serious criminal charges, on bribery and breach of trust.
At a time when prosecutors and police from all over our country come and go in their investigations, and to feverish deliberations on how to frame the indictment against Prime Minister Olmert, after they made sure he was forced out without an indictment, on the contrary on the basis of an industry of hearsay, broadcasts and newspaper headlines on breaches of trust and conflicts of interest, in the hope that in the end they would succeed in proving that he shoved some small change into his pocket, it might pay to gaze well how they deal with an affair far more grave in the U.S.
In 2005, after he was elected to the US Senate from the State of Illinois and had been an elected public official for years, Obama sought to purchase a home in a prestigious neighborhood in Chicago. Unfortunately for him, he didn't have enough money at his disposal |(for the house and the adjoining lot), and at the end purchased the home for $1,650,000. Of the land beside the home, including the garden including trees and bushes, his good friend purchased, his contributor and supporter for 20 years, a rich contractor from Chicago of Syrian origin by the name of Tony Rezko, at the price of $104,500. Mr. Rezko approved the exclusive right to Obama to use this lot of land beside his new home for the good of the Obama family.
When asked about this, according to reports published in the US, when the affair was publicized, Obama said in commenting to news media, that it was a "boneheaded mistake," in his words, and he won't do it again.
In the meantime Rezko was convicted in federal court of corruption and aiding and abetting bribery, which is not connected to the affair before us.
It goes without saying that no investigation was opened, no indictment presented, no ethics problem raised, no examination by an ombudsman, and even Obama's rival in the race, Senator McCain, only mentioned that affair when he was accused himself by his rival that he didn't know how many homes he owned.
There is no question that in Israel they would have preferred serious charges against Obama involving bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. No one would go easy on him. On the basis of the judgment against (former cabinet minister) Aryeh Deri, Israeli courts would send him to prison for five years. He'd be released after three years for good behavior. And what's happening in the real world? He's about to be chosen to the most powerful position in the entire world, in another few days.
There remains the quesion -- what is the essential difference between the Israeli and American public and legal approach (to these matters)? Is our country more corrupt than the US? Is the approach of one or the other countries exaggerated and excessive?
By RON FESTINGER
The little property affair that was exposed in Obama's past would have shocked us here to the tips of our middle fingers. We have to learn from the Americans a lesson in proportion.
Barring unforeseen developments at the last moment, it appears that Senator Barack Obama will chosen as the next president of the United States.
Without relating to the deep apprehensions that this choice awakens, there is no question that if Obama resided in the State of Israel, he wouldn't be able today to run for head of government, and perhaps not for any public office whatsoever; on the contrary he would find himself entangled up to his neck in serious criminal charges, on bribery and breach of trust.
At a time when prosecutors and police from all over our country come and go in their investigations, and to feverish deliberations on how to frame the indictment against Prime Minister Olmert, after they made sure he was forced out without an indictment, on the contrary on the basis of an industry of hearsay, broadcasts and newspaper headlines on breaches of trust and conflicts of interest, in the hope that in the end they would succeed in proving that he shoved some small change into his pocket, it might pay to gaze well how they deal with an affair far more grave in the U.S.
In 2005, after he was elected to the US Senate from the State of Illinois and had been an elected public official for years, Obama sought to purchase a home in a prestigious neighborhood in Chicago. Unfortunately for him, he didn't have enough money at his disposal |(for the house and the adjoining lot), and at the end purchased the home for $1,650,000. Of the land beside the home, including the garden including trees and bushes, his good friend purchased, his contributor and supporter for 20 years, a rich contractor from Chicago of Syrian origin by the name of Tony Rezko, at the price of $104,500. Mr. Rezko approved the exclusive right to Obama to use this lot of land beside his new home for the good of the Obama family.
When asked about this, according to reports published in the US, when the affair was publicized, Obama said in commenting to news media, that it was a "boneheaded mistake," in his words, and he won't do it again.
In the meantime Rezko was convicted in federal court of corruption and aiding and abetting bribery, which is not connected to the affair before us.
It goes without saying that no investigation was opened, no indictment presented, no ethics problem raised, no examination by an ombudsman, and even Obama's rival in the race, Senator McCain, only mentioned that affair when he was accused himself by his rival that he didn't know how many homes he owned.
There is no question that in Israel they would have preferred serious charges against Obama involving bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. No one would go easy on him. On the basis of the judgment against (former cabinet minister) Aryeh Deri, Israeli courts would send him to prison for five years. He'd be released after three years for good behavior. And what's happening in the real world? He's about to be chosen to the most powerful position in the entire world, in another few days.
There remains the quesion -- what is the essential difference between the Israeli and American public and legal approach (to these matters)? Is our country more corrupt than the US? Is the approach of one or the other countries exaggerated and excessive?
A international crisis, could play in favour of Mccain in the Last week
Witnesses: US helicopters attack Syrian village
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) - Syria's state-run television and witnesses say U.S. military helicopters have attacked an area along the country's border with Iraq, causing casualties.
The report quoted unnamed Syrian officials and said the area is near the Syrian border town of Abu Kamal. It gave no other details on Sunday's attack.
Local residents told The Associated Press by telephone that two helicopters carrying U.S. soldiers raided the village of Hwijeh, 10 miles inside Syria's border, killing seven people and wounding five
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) - Syria's state-run television and witnesses say U.S. military helicopters have attacked an area along the country's border with Iraq, causing casualties.
The report quoted unnamed Syrian officials and said the area is near the Syrian border town of Abu Kamal. It gave no other details on Sunday's attack.
Local residents told The Associated Press by telephone that two helicopters carrying U.S. soldiers raided the village of Hwijeh, 10 miles inside Syria's border, killing seven people and wounding five
Quote reverse: Obama's 6 point lead is an extremely thin silver lining on an increasingly dark cloud for the Dems
from CNN:
"McCain's six-point lead in Georgia is an extremely thin silver lining on an increasingly dark cloud for the GOP," said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib.
why is Obama's thin lead over McCain national and In the Battleground states , a steady lead and a indication of him winning! huh?
"McCain's six-point lead in Georgia is an extremely thin silver lining on an increasingly dark cloud for the GOP," said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib.
why is Obama's thin lead over McCain national and In the Battleground states , a steady lead and a indication of him winning! huh?
Stunning results in early voting in California. Smile redstaters
California has begun early voting already as well as mail-in balloting. The number of people who have gone in to vote in person has been extensive. The results so far prove what we had always suspected. The polls are being proven as totally unreliable. Although the results of early balloting have not been disclosed,of course,how many Republicans and how many Democrats have voted has been revealed.
The results are simply shocking. The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18 point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage !
If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama,then the race is incredibly close. I'm sure that Obama will eventually win in California,but if he is struggling here after he pushed so hard for early voting,then he will lose the election ! Everybody thought he would win California in a landslide,but so far anyway,it's very tight. That means that in the less liberal states he is in real trouble.
Ignore the pundits. Forget the polls. Get out there and vote for John McCain. The results in California show the wisdom of Yogi Berra who said, "It's not over until it's over."
The results are simply shocking. The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18 point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage !
If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama,then the race is incredibly close. I'm sure that Obama will eventually win in California,but if he is struggling here after he pushed so hard for early voting,then he will lose the election ! Everybody thought he would win California in a landslide,but so far anyway,it's very tight. That means that in the less liberal states he is in real trouble.
Ignore the pundits. Forget the polls. Get out there and vote for John McCain. The results in California show the wisdom of Yogi Berra who said, "It's not over until it's over."
Mccain slowly Climbing up the Hill...........
IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll
Barack Obama 46.5%
John McCain 43.3%
Undecided 10.1%
McCain opened a 13-point lead with married women
Barack Obama 46.5%
John McCain 43.3%
Undecided 10.1%
McCain opened a 13-point lead with married women
Obama to give "important address" in Canton on Monday
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, who is scheduled to be in Canton on Monday, will deliver "an important address" at the Memorial Civic Center rather than his typical stump speech, his campaign said Saturday.
A campaign spokesman said he could not disclose any further details.
The campaign is apparently organizing an event at the civic center at 1101 Market Ave. N that's different from the standard political rally. The spokesman said that no entertainment has been booked. In addition, Geoff Tompkins, manager and director of event services for the civic center, said Obama's advance team told him that they wanted a venue that would be appropriate for a "policy speech."
A press release said that Obama would "discuss his plans to turn around the economy, bring new jobs to Ohio and deliver the change we need in Washington."
A campaign spokesman said he could not disclose any further details.
The campaign is apparently organizing an event at the civic center at 1101 Market Ave. N that's different from the standard political rally. The spokesman said that no entertainment has been booked. In addition, Geoff Tompkins, manager and director of event services for the civic center, said Obama's advance team told him that they wanted a venue that would be appropriate for a "policy speech."
A press release said that Obama would "discuss his plans to turn around the economy, bring new jobs to Ohio and deliver the change we need in Washington."
Re-weighted 2004 turnout IBD/TIPP poll shows Obama leading Mccain by less then 1 point
re-weighted the IBD/TIPP poll using their internals given for percentage of party voting for each candidate. Obama has 84% Democrats, 7% Republicans, and 42% Independents. McCain has 7% Democrats, 85% Republicans, and 37% Independents. Using the 2004 turnout of Democrats 37%, Republicans 37%, and Independents 26%, the IBD/TIPP poll from October 25, 2008 goes from the current poll numbers to the following: Current IBD/TIPP Poll Obama 45.8% McCain 41.9% Difference 3.9% Re-weighted IBD/TIPP Poll Obama 44.59% McCain 43.66% Difference 0.83%
Heavens said to favor McCain
Times Herald-Record
STONE RIDGE — He's losing ground in almost every poll every day. Increasingly, the world's most sophisticated polling and demographic reviews are spewing out reams of up-to-the-minute bad news for Republican John McCain.
But McCain can take comfort from one all-but-forgotten predictive realm: the heavens. A small group of folks who practice the world's oldest form of forecasting decided this past week that the heavens favor John McCain for president.
Nearly a dozen predictive astrologers, members of the local chapter of the National Council for Geocosmic Research, spent more than two hours challenging and discussing each other's predictive assessments of both candidates' chances come November.
Related Stories
For Hall, first term a whirlwind Unaffiliated voters could decide race in 39th Senate District Political Notebook: Fliers targeting Obama plastered on cars in Pa. In Albany, legislators' spending depends on power Pennsylvania's 10th C.D. race result could signal major change NY Senate control hinges on a few races Local lawyers help Ohio effort Exec candidates spar over issues Calhoun and Randazzo spar over education funding In 100th Assembly District, it's cop's perspective vs. businessman's Lalor seeking votes everywhere Voters' views on race, gender surface in presidential election Calhoun, Randazzo face off on top issues High school holds mock vote Debate heats up between Hall, Lalor To an outsider, their rapid-fire talk of "oppositions," "ascents" and "transits" was akin to listening in on a macro-economic conference — a language of numbers, signs and symbols well beyond the ken of the casual listener.
But you didn't need a natal chart to determine that the conclusion the group reached was arrived at reluctantly; most of the astrologers were Barack Obama supporters. But the heavens, they said, are as immune to the vagaries of human opinion and preference as they are immutable in their movements. Divining their meaning, however, isn't always perfectly obvious even to the trained eye, one trained eye said.
Still, group moderator Ira Rubin cautioned that the accuracy of the information used to make the assessment — the candidates' birth charts — was under dispute. Several versions of both candidates' charts have surfaced because both men were born outside the continental United States and challenges have been launched to their constitutional right to serve as president.
"There's so much conflicting data, it's difficult to reach a conclusion," Rubin said. But, he added, he'd seen the group's reluctant assessment in McCain's favor echoed in several other similar meetings at other similar gatherings, including a total of about 50 astrologers.
STONE RIDGE — He's losing ground in almost every poll every day. Increasingly, the world's most sophisticated polling and demographic reviews are spewing out reams of up-to-the-minute bad news for Republican John McCain.
But McCain can take comfort from one all-but-forgotten predictive realm: the heavens. A small group of folks who practice the world's oldest form of forecasting decided this past week that the heavens favor John McCain for president.
Nearly a dozen predictive astrologers, members of the local chapter of the National Council for Geocosmic Research, spent more than two hours challenging and discussing each other's predictive assessments of both candidates' chances come November.
Related Stories
For Hall, first term a whirlwind Unaffiliated voters could decide race in 39th Senate District Political Notebook: Fliers targeting Obama plastered on cars in Pa. In Albany, legislators' spending depends on power Pennsylvania's 10th C.D. race result could signal major change NY Senate control hinges on a few races Local lawyers help Ohio effort Exec candidates spar over issues Calhoun and Randazzo spar over education funding In 100th Assembly District, it's cop's perspective vs. businessman's Lalor seeking votes everywhere Voters' views on race, gender surface in presidential election Calhoun, Randazzo face off on top issues High school holds mock vote Debate heats up between Hall, Lalor To an outsider, their rapid-fire talk of "oppositions," "ascents" and "transits" was akin to listening in on a macro-economic conference — a language of numbers, signs and symbols well beyond the ken of the casual listener.
But you didn't need a natal chart to determine that the conclusion the group reached was arrived at reluctantly; most of the astrologers were Barack Obama supporters. But the heavens, they said, are as immune to the vagaries of human opinion and preference as they are immutable in their movements. Divining their meaning, however, isn't always perfectly obvious even to the trained eye, one trained eye said.
Still, group moderator Ira Rubin cautioned that the accuracy of the information used to make the assessment — the candidates' birth charts — was under dispute. Several versions of both candidates' charts have surfaced because both men were born outside the continental United States and challenges have been launched to their constitutional right to serve as president.
"There's so much conflicting data, it's difficult to reach a conclusion," Rubin said. But, he added, he'd seen the group's reluctant assessment in McCain's favor echoed in several other similar meetings at other similar gatherings, including a total of about 50 astrologers.
Zogby 10/26: Obama 49.4 v. McCain 44.1
UTICA, New York – Republican John McCain continues to gain on Democrat Barack Obama, reducing Obama’s lead to 5.3 points with just over a week to go before Election Day, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby national daily tracking poll shows.
The race now stands at 49.4% to 44.1% in favor of Obama. Obama led McCain by 9.5 points in yesterday’s report.
“There is no question that this race continues to tighten and that McCain is finding his message again,” said Pollster John Zogby. “It is after all about the economy and that is how McCain tightened it up the last time. I have said over and over again, when he focuses on extraneous issues, he screws up. In today's single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%. I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead.
The race now stands at 49.4% to 44.1% in favor of Obama. Obama led McCain by 9.5 points in yesterday’s report.
“There is no question that this race continues to tighten and that McCain is finding his message again,” said Pollster John Zogby. “It is after all about the economy and that is how McCain tightened it up the last time. I have said over and over again, when he focuses on extraneous issues, he screws up. In today's single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%. I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead.
THE TRUMAN SHOW HOW MCCAIN COULD PULL OFF A FINAL WEEK UPSET
dick morris:
The most reliable surveys put McCain five to seven points behind Obama as we enter the last week of this interminable campaign. But in a race that will be famous for years afterwards for its volatility, it is not too late for the Republican to pull out a victory.
For Harry Truman in 1948, the presidential race shifted dramatically in the final week, and it's happened three more times in the past 30 years. In 1980, Reagan came from eight points behind to a solid victory by winning his sole debate with Carter in the last week of October. In 1992, Clinton, who had fallen behind in the polls because of the pounding he was taking over his liberalism and propensity to raise taxes, surged ahead of Bush when Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh announced that he was indicting Defense Secretary Casper (Cap) Weinberger, an indication of Bush's possible complicity in the Iran-Contra scandal. And in 2000, Bush's three-to-four point lead in the polls was erased over the final weekend when reports surfaced that he had been cited for DWI 20 years before and had not revealed the fact to the public. Bush still won the election, of course, but Gore won the popular vote by half a point.
What does McCain have to do to pull off a similar shift this time?
1. Use the stock market crash to highlight the tax issue. With the Dow Jones dropping each day by hundreds of points, this election is being held against a backdrop of economic fear unlike any since the Depression. Almost every reputable economist agrees that it would be catastrophic to add to the economy's woes by raising the capital gains tax. But Obama is on record as favoring an increase from 15% to 20% and suggested during the primaries that he would consider hitting 28%.
McCain should jump on the issue and challenge Obama to agree to a two-year moratorium on increases in the capital gains tax. If Obama agrees, McCain will score points for leadership. If Obama refuses, or ignores the challenge, McCain can attribute much of the drop in the market to the fear of increased capital gains taxation once Obama takes over. After all, its pretty obvious that if you keep 85% of your capital profits right now but stand only to keep 80% or 72% once Obama takes over, it's prudent to unload now. This pressure to sell is exactly what the markets do not need, and McCain can hammer the point home.
McCain can say that Obama's refusal to join in supporting a moratorium on capital gains taxation increases shows his commitment to class warfare - and that big government exceeds any concern he might have for stock market stability or the value of 401Ks or retirement pension funds.
McCain has already scored mightily with his invocation of Joe the Plumber and, polls show, he won the third debate by using the issue of taxes and small businesses. By early this coming week, his advertising will have achieved sufficient levels of frequency to have an impact on the polling.
The most reliable surveys put McCain five to seven points behind Obama as we enter the last week of this interminable campaign. But in a race that will be famous for years afterwards for its volatility, it is not too late for the Republican to pull out a victory.
For Harry Truman in 1948, the presidential race shifted dramatically in the final week, and it's happened three more times in the past 30 years. In 1980, Reagan came from eight points behind to a solid victory by winning his sole debate with Carter in the last week of October. In 1992, Clinton, who had fallen behind in the polls because of the pounding he was taking over his liberalism and propensity to raise taxes, surged ahead of Bush when Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh announced that he was indicting Defense Secretary Casper (Cap) Weinberger, an indication of Bush's possible complicity in the Iran-Contra scandal. And in 2000, Bush's three-to-four point lead in the polls was erased over the final weekend when reports surfaced that he had been cited for DWI 20 years before and had not revealed the fact to the public. Bush still won the election, of course, but Gore won the popular vote by half a point.
What does McCain have to do to pull off a similar shift this time?
1. Use the stock market crash to highlight the tax issue. With the Dow Jones dropping each day by hundreds of points, this election is being held against a backdrop of economic fear unlike any since the Depression. Almost every reputable economist agrees that it would be catastrophic to add to the economy's woes by raising the capital gains tax. But Obama is on record as favoring an increase from 15% to 20% and suggested during the primaries that he would consider hitting 28%.
McCain should jump on the issue and challenge Obama to agree to a two-year moratorium on increases in the capital gains tax. If Obama agrees, McCain will score points for leadership. If Obama refuses, or ignores the challenge, McCain can attribute much of the drop in the market to the fear of increased capital gains taxation once Obama takes over. After all, its pretty obvious that if you keep 85% of your capital profits right now but stand only to keep 80% or 72% once Obama takes over, it's prudent to unload now. This pressure to sell is exactly what the markets do not need, and McCain can hammer the point home.
McCain can say that Obama's refusal to join in supporting a moratorium on capital gains taxation increases shows his commitment to class warfare - and that big government exceeds any concern he might have for stock market stability or the value of 401Ks or retirement pension funds.
McCain has already scored mightily with his invocation of Joe the Plumber and, polls show, he won the third debate by using the issue of taxes and small businesses. By early this coming week, his advertising will have achieved sufficient levels of frequency to have an impact on the polling.
Dem Pollster: Mccain will win FL, OH, MO, NV and VA
I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
ZOGBY: MCCAIN GAINING BIG
"I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go." - John Zogby
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
