Saturday, November 1, 2008

Rasmussen: 6 % COULD CHANGE MIND, 2 % UNDECIDED (HOPE FOR MCCAIN)

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and won’t change their mind. Forty-three percent (43%) say the same about McCain. Six percent (6%) have a preference for one of the major party candidates but could change their mind, 2% plan to vote for a third party option and 2% remain undecided

Morris: may expact Earthquake

"There is a seismic shift for McCain," Morris told Newsmax. "It could turn into an earthquake this weekend."
"I think a large of the credit goes to
GOPTrust.com for its courageous use of the Rev. Wright ad and the many tens of thousands who have donated almost $9 million before election day," Morris said

ZOGBY: MAC IS BACK

Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

Friday, October 31, 2008

Poll: Obama leads McCain by one point in battleground states

A Halloween Day poll shows John McCain trailing Barack Obama by one point in the “toss-up” states that could decide Tuesday’s presidential election.

The George Washington University Battleground Poll gives Obama and running mate Joe Biden 47 percent, with 46 percent for McCain and running mate Sarah Palin in those states and 4 percent undecided.

The Obama-Biden lead overall in the GWU poll was 48 percent to 45 percent. The survey was released Oct. 31 and questioned 1,000 voters.

Mccain Pollster: Republican running almost even in Party ID vote

McCain pollster sees smaller Dem #'s than predicted

Bill McInturff of the McCain campaign thinks we will see a much smaller Democratic advantage than many pollsters have been telling us for much of this year.

"Now in the modern year, '84 on, every cycle, the worst possible cycle, 1992, among people who went to vote, they were by five points Democrat. So what we're seeing in that last week or ten days is intensity increasing with some of the core Republican coalition, so that they are finally kicking in and going up, and as that happens we're seeing a closing in party identification. And I believe that party ID on election day in the exit polls, and then of course incorporate early voters is going to be in that kind of historic norm of minus three to minus five. And when that happens, John McCain and our stuff always run ah ead of party ID. And so this kind of rising intensity with our coalition, the consolidating of party identification is helping create a very, very close result.

UPDATED COLORADO EARLY VOTE NUMBERS AS OF 10/31: MCCAIN LEADS BY 3

As of 4:19PM 10/31/2008

Ballots Returned by Mail or Early Vote BY PARTY ID ONLY.
Dems 488,575 37.6%

Reps 465,869 35.9%

Ind 336,511 25.9%

Among mail in ballots Republicans have returned 64.9% of all the mail in's they requested

Democrats have returned 63.3% of the mail in ballots they requested

Unaffiliateds have returned 54.3% of the mail in ballots they requested.

Assuming 92% of Republicans support McCain, 86% of Dems Support Obama and Indies split evenly, the PROJECTED vote totals thus far look like this:

McCain - 665255 51.5%

Obama - 625698 48.5%

Bill Kristol: predicts a Mccain Win (its gona be huge)

BLESS THE ONE, OBAMA, THE KING OF THE WORLD

Obama supporter hails the bringer of all good things

Federal employees support *McCain*,51% to 46%,FedSmith.com

Is The Presidential Election Close? Very Close According to Latest (and Last) Survey Before the Election

The shifting preferences in the American race for president have been volatile this year. We have periodically asked readers their opinion on the candidates. The federal workforce is large, diverse, and pays attention to political issues--probably much more attention than the average American--and the results of these informal surveys have been consistent with national trends in the election process. In some cases, going back through the last election cycle in 2004, the opinions of our readers presaged similar trends among the general electorate.

STILL TIGHT: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: O-48.2%, M-43.8%, Undecided-8.0%

HOPE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN: Rendell says race is closer than polls indicate

Gov. Ed Rendell Friday said the presidential race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain is "closer than the polls indicate." Urging people to get out and vote in Tuesday's general election, Rendell said Obama does not have a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania and he told voters to take an umbrella and dress warmly to withstand the weather.

"Stay in that line and make sure you vote," Rendell told about 50 people at Wilkes University. "I've seen polls that have the race as close as four points."

Rendell also said the addition of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket has "enthused" the campaign.
"She has drawn thousands of people to every event she has appeared at," Rendell said.

Team McCain conference call: WITNESS A MCCAIN COMEBACK

Pennsylvania appears within the margin of error, and a last-minute surprise could turn the race in McCain’s favor — or so they would like to think. Team McCain held a press conference today with campaign leaders Rick Davis, pollster Bill McInturff, Mike DuHaime and Christian Ferry to discuss the latest in national and state polling.
Davis says we’re witnessing one of the greatest comebacks in political history, or at least since McCain won the primaries. Crowds are huge, and energy is high. Sarah Palin is electrifying crowds and bringing people back into the game. They feel they have the momentum, increasing polling in every battleground state over the past week, and have gotten past the effect of the financial collapse.
Team McCain says they have Iowa as a dead heat, and Obama seems to confirm that. He’s going back to Iowa over the weekend. If Iowa was not in play, Obama wouldn’t bother. Team McCain seems to believe that more than a few Obama states may be heading back into play.
McInturff says that intensity is increasing among core Republican coalitions, and that has brought a narrowing of the gap in party identification. He predicts a final gap of 3-5 points. McCain has always run ahead of party ID, and they see this as a big plus. He also sees Obama’s numbers dropping in battleground states, and thinks Obama will have a tough time getting to 50%.
Turnout models show a big response from Republicans as well as Democrats. He thinks this will be closer to 2004 than 2000, and it may improve even more over the weekend. McInturff says that this will be a close election, but that McCain is very much in it.
On the GOTV efforts, they say that they have spent more money on turnout in the past two months than any other election. The RNC’s ability to raise money has given the GOP parity on GOTV and in advertising. Their turnout efforts grow week-on-week, and may be the most underreported aspect of the campaign. The microtargeting, VOIP efforts, and analytical models continues to improve the GOTV efforts. They’ve made 5.3 million targeted calls and doorknocks in the past week, and 1.3 million yesterday, to persuadable voters, and 24 million to date. That’s a major improvement over 2004 and 2006, and they expect to make 17 million more in the next 72 hours.
On absentee and early voting, they are seeing big increases in the number, but not much different in the party-ID gap. In Florida, McCain has an advantage in the total number of both. Nevada has about the same breakout as it did in 2004. Pennsylvania gave the GOP a lead on absentee ballots, 56-44, and younger voters are in roughly the same proportion as they had been before. New Democratic registrants this year actually make up a somewhat lower proportion of early voters in PA.

Rick Davis: McCain 'Dead Even in Iowa'

townhall.com:
Everyone has written-off Iowa. In fact, we've been very curious as to why McCain -- who opposes Ethanol subsidies -- has "wasted" his time there this year.

I'm on a conference call right now with McCain campaign manager Rick Davis. According to Davis, McCain's internal polling shows them "dead-even in Iowa." Davis says this is the reason Obama is headed there to campaign

RUDY GUILIANIIN OHIO: OUR POLL SHOWS MCCAIN 46% , OBAMA 37%

DON'T CRY AT 3 PM WHEN THE EXIT POLLS START TO LEAK OUT.....

McCain Voters Less Likely To Respond To Exit Pollsters

Obviously, it's tough to measure the attitudes of those who refuse to talk to pollsters, but this question in Fox News' latest survey confirms a long-held suspicion:

40. Every election, the television networks conduct exit polls of people as they leave their polling places on Election Day. If you were asked to participate, how likely is it you would be willing to spend 10 minutes filling out a questionnaire?

Obama voterswho responded very likely/somewhat likely: 77 percent.

McCain voters who responded very likely/somewhat likely: 64 percent.

Obama voters who responded not very likely/not at all likely: 20 percent.

McCain voters who responded not very likely/not at all likely: 32 percent.

OBAMA: ''NO BLUE AMERICA, NO RED AMERICA, THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA", HUH????



NY POST, DALLAS MORNING NEWS, WASHINGTON TIMES TOLD TO GET OUT... ALL 3 ENDORSED MCCAIN

The Obama campaign has decided to heave out three newspapers from its plane for the final days of its blitz across battleground states -- and all three endorsed Sen. John McCain for president!

The NY POST, WASHINGTON TIMES and DALLAS MORNING NEWS have all been told to move out by Sunday to make room for network bigwigs -- and possibly for the inclusion of reporters from two black magazines, ESSENCE and JET, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.

Rasmussen: Obama 51, Mccain 47 (M +1)

AP POLL: IF UNDECIDED DECIDE, MCCAIN LEADS OBAMA 51-49

One in seven, or 14 percent, can't decide, or back a candidate but might switch, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll of likely voters released Friday.

The survey found Obama leading McCain among all likely voters, 51 percent to 43 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Almost four in 10 persuadables lean toward McCain, and about as many are considering backing Obama, while the rest are either undecided or lean toward other candidates.

*(IF U LOOK INTO THE POLL: only 6% of undecided are CONSIDERING to vote for Obama , while 6 % are leaning already to Mccain, if Mccain is to persuade the other 2% to vote for him, or when they decide to break for Mccain , Mccain is on the hill to win the Election .)*

Internal GOP Poll shows: MCCAIN WINS WITH A LANDSLIDE

Source: Quinn & rose radio show

NJ: Mccain 48 , Obama 43
MI: Mccain 44 ,Obama 42
PA: Mccain 55 ,Obama 33

(Dem vote in PA is: Obama 47, Mccain 37)

UNDECIDED are breaking 4-1 to Mccain

Tito the Plumber clashes with Colmes

Strategic Vision Pennsylvania Poll: 0bama 49%, McCain 44%

SPECIAL SUNDAY EDITION: LET YOUR VOICE BE HEARED!

email your comments . predictions & thoughts on this Election - who will Win & what is at stake & why your voting for Mccain or Obama!
and on Sunday we will post it ina special Edition of 'let your voice be Heared'

Email: jacobkornbluh@gmail.com

ZOGBAMA CAN"T DECIDE TO GIVE OBAMA A BOUNCE OR WAIT TILL OTHERS GIVE IT TOO...

Obama 50
Mccain 43

EXCLUSIVE:IS THE NEXT PRESIDENT GOING TO BE DECIDED BY THE JEWISH VOTE IN PHILLY...... DEVELOPING.........

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Robart novak predicts: Mccain 's cling to Victory depends on PA




''....Right now, we foresee McCain winning most of the closest states. Despite slim poll leads for Obama or statistical ties, we see McCain as the favorite in Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. Obama, however, is poised to capture Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and New Hampshire.


Florida is the toughest state to read. Reuters/Zogby has a tie, while all other polls show Obama above 50%. McCain's advantage among the senior vote has eroded, and the Cuban advantage has melted away. Still, barring a late Obama surge there, McCain will eke this one out.

In Pennsylvania, McCain is making a strong, but long-shot push..."

"....The election is still winnable for McCain. Remember that pollsters are factoring into their results an assumed higher black turnout and higher youth turnout than normal. Also, remember that Republican voters--especially this year, with Democratic politicians attributing opposition to Obama to racism or redneck prejudice--are far coyer about answering pollsters..."

GOOD NEWS: MCCAIN IS GETTING A CHUNK OF THE JEWISH VOTE (anough to win FL & PA)

n John McCain is gaining a larger share of the traditionally Democratic Jewish vote that could be a deciding factor in several battleground states, according to three recent polls.
He also appears to be more popular among younger Jews than those 55 and over—a striking finding that goes against the common wisdom that older Jews concerned about Barack Obama’s positions on Israel are a threat to the Democrat.
Obama has support among 57 percent of Jewish voters compared to McCain’s 30 percent. Another 13 percent are undecided, according to a telephone survey of one thousand American Jews conducted by the American Jewish Committee.
What’s striking, though, is how small Obama’s support is among a base that traditionally has leaned nearly 3 to 1 in favor of Democrats over the last few decades.

In more promising news for McCain, a poll commissioned by Votefromisrael.org (VFI), a non-partisan organization dedicated to promoting voter registration and participation amongst American citizens living in Israel, 76 percent of polled American voters in Israel reported that they had voted for John McCain for President.

More than half of that group would likely be filing absentee ballots for Ohio and Florida. The poll, which was conducted by KEEVOON, a Jerusalem-based Research firm, was based upon data from 817 voters who attended US Election events in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv organized by VFI combined with on-line surveys

Mccain is scheduled to appear on SNL this weekend

Joe the Plumber directly challenges OBAMA to "come clean"

Bill Clinton admits that Obama didn’t know what to do about the economy

the key part comes at 8:25:


“I haven’t cleared this with him and he may even be mad at me for saying this so close to the election, but I know what else he said to his economic advisers (during the crisis),” Clinton told the crowd at a Wednesday night rally with Obama in Florida. “He said, ‘Tell me what the right thing to do is. What’s the right thing for America? Don’t tell me what’s popular. You tell me what’s right — I’ll figure out how to sell it.’”

McCain: "We Are Going to Win This Election", We do best as Underdog


John McCain, predicting "we may be up late" on Election Day, told FOX News on Thursday that he intends to surge in the final hours of his underdog presidential campaign.

"I hope it peaks out at just about mid-day next Tuesday. We are excited about where we are going. People are beginning to focus on the campaign," McCain told FOX News, in between a whirlwind of campaign stops in Ohio.

"We are going to win this election but I understand that it is still an uphill fight, and I have got to be the underdog right up until the polls open," McCain said. "And I am serious about that -- that's when we do best."

MCCAIN: I CAN FEEL IT...WE ARE GONA WIN OHIO....I CAN FEEL IT....

OBAMA'S EARLY VOTING LEAD IN FLORIDA IS ONLY 7.5%

Based on the total early and absentee ballots casted so far(2,979,991.20), and based on both McCain & Obama getting all the party's support, and Obama getting 5% more of independents, according to the latest media polls, Obama is only leading with approx 7.5 % in early voting, while John Kerry led Bush by 16% in early voting and lost to Bush with 5%, and based on reports that Obama is supposed to get a huge lead among early voters and in voter turn out, Barack Obama is about to lose Florida to McCain with a significant Margin .

Romney: Obama Would Kill Millions of Jobs

In the final days of the campaign, John McCain needs to emphasize that Barack Obama would kill millions of jobs, Mitt Romney tells Newsmax.

“It’s too late in the process to be unveiling new initiatives,” Romney says. “Instead, you focus on the consequences of an Obama presidency and the benefits of a McCain presidency. And frankly, in my lifetime, I don’t recall a more anti-job program than Barack Obama’s.”

McCain’s program creates jobs, Romney says, while Obama’s shrinks them.

“My own view is that’s the message in the last days. Boil it down in a way that people understand,” Romney says. “You don’t have to go through all the differences and the details. The headline is: Barack Obama will kill millions of jobs in America; John McCain will create millions of jobs in America.”

DailyKos poll: Mccain gained 1 point , Obama 50, Mccain 45

NEVADO - MAYBE IN MCCAIN'S COLUMN

Exit polling of early voters conducted by a local political consultant suggests a close presidential contest in the Silver State: Democratic nominee Barack Obama had the votes of 50 percent who had voted, while Republican nominee John McCain had 48 percent of the early vote. (300,00.00 VOTES)

Rick Davis; WE ARE CLOSING THE GAP, AND WE WILL WIN

Link: Rick Davis Closing the gap

DEMOCRATIC LEAD OVER GOP IN THE GENERIC BALLOT IS ONLY 4 POINTS

GW/Battleground:
Republicans have cut the Democratic advantage in the generic ballot question in half over the past week, according to a new GW-Battleground poll.

Democrats now lead by four points, their slimmest lead in more than three years. A week ago, according to the George Washington University poll, their advantage was eight points. Meantime, the congressional approval rating remained low, at 19 percent, up two points from the previous poll.

While the poll could give Republican candidates hope in a tough political landscape for the GOP, it had only mixed news for the party’s presidential candidate, John McCain. The Arizona senator remained three points behind Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

THIS IS A INDICATION THAT WHILE ALL POLLSTERS SAMPLE MUCH MORE DEM. THE REP. , THIS RACE IS REALY VERY VERY CLOSE, AND IF OBAMA FAILS TO LEAD HEAVILY IN VOTER TURN OUT , JOHN MCCAIN WILL WIN WITH A SUPRISED VICTORY!!

Andy Martin predicts John McCain will win the White House

Obama's supporters are "moral mercenaries' in Martin's eyes. McCain will prevail "by a whisker." Martin is avoiding Obama's $2 million "Temple of Obama" in Grant Park, Chicago on election night.

Andy Martin calls the election for Senator John McCain
He says if present trends continue, it's McCain by a whisker
Andy will be staying away from the $2 million "Temple of Obama" in Grant Park, Chicago on election night

Internet powerhouse Andy Martin says Senator
John McCain is going to win the presidency, by a whisker.

"McCain has finally shown who he is," Martin says. "McCain took command."

"Forty-two years of politics at the national and state level convince me John McCain is going to squeak in," Andy says.

"McCain is a warrior, and warriors perform at their best with their backs to the wall. McCain's campaign-if it continues-has hit its stride at the opportune moment."

IBD/TIPP POLL: OBAMA SURGES AHEAD OF MCCAIN (GAINS 1.1 POINT)

WHERE IS THE SO CALLED ZOGBAMA AND RASMUSSEN BOUNCE FOR OBAMA?

Obama leads Mccain by only 4 points
Obama 47
Mccain 43

NEW MEXICO EARLY VOTING: OBAMA'S LEAD ONLY 1 PERCENT

VIRGINIA HOPE: Mccain is in to grab it

2 polls showing Hope for Mccain in VA.

Marist: Obama 51 Mccain 47
FD: Obama 48 Mccain 44

''DON'T LET HIM IN''

a woman standing in the Line in my store listened in to a conversation I had about the Elections ...she confronts me: '' I hope you are not voting for him (Obama)... DON'T LET HIM IN...''

Republican John McCain Endorsed By Aerosmith Star



Republican John McCain's bid to become the next president of the United States has won the support of Aerosmith guitarist Joe Perry.

The guitarist told the Boston Herald that he thought Mr McCain was better suited to solving threats to America's national security and its economic problems than rival Barack Obama.

He also said he believed Mr McCain could still overhaul Mr Obama's lead in the polls.

“I’m an optimist. It ain’t over till its over. I think that he’s got a chance,” he said.

Exit Polls in Israel: MCCAIN 76 OBAMA 24

exit poll of US citizens in Israel show the a majority of 3-1 castred their votes to Mccain.

The Phillies victory is good news for McCain

The only other time the Phillies won the World Series, a Republican has won the White House. And the last time — in 1980 — Reagan came back from behind (as Karl Rove notes today, Ronaldus Magnus is the only presidential candidate to pull off a victory when the Gallup Poll in the week before the election showed him losing). It's fate. A Phillies World Series championship means that McCain will pull off a similar miracle — defeating Obama on Tuesda

GOOD NEWS FOR MCCAIN......DEVELOPING.......

EXCLUSIVE: KARL ROVE IS PLAYING THE GAME WITH A SMIRK

.......But he isn’t telling the truth. He’s saying that his electoral map reflects all of the state public polls. You know, like the AP polls of battleground states that were released yesterday. These polls clearly oversampled youths, blacks, single women, etc. Instead of calling these polls what they truly are, O’Reilly and Rove are “playing the game” along with MSM. This is absolutely brilliant. In fact, it is Rove’s Royal Flush:

First Card: McCain supporters will be nervous – they’ll GOTV

Second Card: Obama supporters will become complacent – “Hey you guys, there is nothing to worry about.”

Third Card: McCain Will Win

Fourth Card: The legitimacy of current and future polls will be questioned for a decade.

Fifth Card: McCain’s win will accelerate of the demise of the MSM

OCTOBER SURPRISE: ALIEN ENDORSES MCCAIN

- In a shocking reversal, the Alien has switched his endorsement from Barack Obama to John McCain.
With major implications for the U.S. presidential election, political kingmaker the Alien has changed his endorsement amid furor. Both political camps are buzzing about the implications, as the Alien has correctly predicted the winning president in every election for the past 28 years.

Masondixon Poll: PA in Mccain's Favour

Obama's lead shrinks to 4
Obama 47
Mccain 43

130 HOURS TO VICTORY! WAKE UP AMERICA...

IT NOW DEPENDS ON YOU THE AMERICAN PEOPLE....CAST YOUR VOTE...DECIDE YOUR FUTURE..