''....Right now, we foresee McCain winning most of the closest states. Despite slim poll leads for Obama or statistical ties, we see McCain as the favorite in Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. Obama, however, is poised to capture Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
Florida is the toughest state to read. Reuters/Zogby has a tie, while all other polls show Obama above 50%. McCain's advantage among the senior vote has eroded, and the Cuban advantage has melted away. Still, barring a late Obama surge there, McCain will eke this one out.
In Pennsylvania, McCain is making a strong, but long-shot push..."
"....The election is still winnable for McCain. Remember that pollsters are factoring into their results an assumed higher black turnout and higher youth turnout than normal. Also, remember that Republican voters--especially this year, with Democratic politicians attributing opposition to Obama to racism or redneck prejudice--are far coyer about answering pollsters..."
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