go to my new blog: www.freshleadership.blogspot.com
updated daily
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Mitt the Frontrunner
NBC-WSJ GOP pollster Neil Newhouse did a post-election survey last night, and here's what he found: Just 12% of those surveyed believed Palin should be the GOP's new leader; instead 29% of voters said Romney, followed by 20% who say Huckabee. Among GOPers, it was Romney 33%, Huckabee 20% and Palin 18%.
You Did Not Lose
www.spectator.org:
Conservatives who sought to prevent McCain's nomination cannot be blamed for his defeat. And it is his defeat, not yours.
Ideologues tend to see election results in ideological terms. Right now, "progressives" are congratulating themselves on the triumph of progressivism. But Obama will be the next president because millions of non-ideological "swing" voters -- those I call the Ordinary Americans -- saw him as the superior candidate. A vote for him was not, in the eyes of those key voters, an endorsement of any ideology.
Good candidates win elections, and bad candidates lose. John McCain was a bad candidate and he lost. Those who try to put an ideological spin on this election will miss that basic point.
Don't blame yourself, and don't listen to the pundits who are trying to spin Tuesday's result as demonstrating the failure of conservatism. The only failure of conservatism in this election cycle was the failure to produce a consensus alternative to McCain.
Last night, at an Election Night party at the National Taxpayers Union in Alexandria, Va., none of the conservative activists were in tears over McCain's defeat -- although some of them were among the same Romney supporters who'd cried when their candidate quit in February.
What I saw last night was a clear-eyed determination to move forward with the conservative agenda in the Obama era. As Paul Jacobs of Citizens in Charge told me, "We've got 'em right where we want 'em.… There is no way that Obama and the Democrats can live up to expectations." Dry it up and move forward. We're at rock bottom, with nowhere to go but up.
Conservatives who sought to prevent McCain's nomination cannot be blamed for his defeat. And it is his defeat, not yours.
Ideologues tend to see election results in ideological terms. Right now, "progressives" are congratulating themselves on the triumph of progressivism. But Obama will be the next president because millions of non-ideological "swing" voters -- those I call the Ordinary Americans -- saw him as the superior candidate. A vote for him was not, in the eyes of those key voters, an endorsement of any ideology.
Good candidates win elections, and bad candidates lose. John McCain was a bad candidate and he lost. Those who try to put an ideological spin on this election will miss that basic point.
Don't blame yourself, and don't listen to the pundits who are trying to spin Tuesday's result as demonstrating the failure of conservatism. The only failure of conservatism in this election cycle was the failure to produce a consensus alternative to McCain.
Last night, at an Election Night party at the National Taxpayers Union in Alexandria, Va., none of the conservative activists were in tears over McCain's defeat -- although some of them were among the same Romney supporters who'd cried when their candidate quit in February.
What I saw last night was a clear-eyed determination to move forward with the conservative agenda in the Obama era. As Paul Jacobs of Citizens in Charge told me, "We've got 'em right where we want 'em.… There is no way that Obama and the Democrats can live up to expectations." Dry it up and move forward. We're at rock bottom, with nowhere to go but up.
What Sank McCain
anything have prevented this defeat? By Byron York:
In January, a few days before the South Carolina Democratic primary, I went to a Barack Obama rally in Columbia with a Republican friend who had never before seen Obama in action. This friend’s reaction: "Oh, s**t." The super-enthusiastic crowd was about 3,000 strong — no big deal compared to the audiences Obama would later draw in the general election, but several times what John McCain was attracting in South Carolina at the time. My friend said the scene reminded him of the old clip from Jaws, in which the small-town sheriff, seeing how big the shark really is, says, "We’re gonna need a bigger boat." The question, of course, was whether Republicans actually had a bigger boat.Now we can say for sure that they didn’t.In his concession speech, John McCain referred to his effort as "the most challenged campaign in modern times." He was right. What sank McCain’s presidential bid was a set of the worst conditions to face any candidate in decades, in combination with an opponent who was not only a better campaigner but also the favorite of the nation’s media establishment. And there was some luck involved, too.
Could any candidate have been elected to succeed a president of his own party whose job approval rating was 25 percent? Probably not. Could any candidate have been elected to continue his party’s stay in the White House when roughly 90 percent of Americans believed the country was on the wrong track? Probably not. Could any candidate from the governing party have been elected after the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 4,000 points before one could even turn around? Probably not.McCain faced all those obstacles — and not just those, but a political climate in which his advantage over his opponent was perversely diminished by McCain’s own courage and good judgment. In the primaries, McCain bet his entire candidacy on the surge in Iraq. He was right, and Democrats were wrong. By any measure, he should have benefited, and Democrats should have suffered, when the surge worked. Instead, as Americans achieved greater success in Iraq — and as U.S. deaths fell to 13 last month, equaling the lowest total in a very long time — the war in Iraq simply fell off many voters’ radar screens. McCain’s resoluteness and good sense went largely unrewarded.And yet in spite of it all, McCain still managed to outperform conditions. The vote totals, as of 2 a.m. Eastern Time, show McCain with about 47 percent of the national popular vote. Perhaps that figure will go down a bit, but there’s no doubt that McCain far outshone George H.W. Bush’s 1992 re-election effort — a campaign undertaken in poor conditions for a Republican, but not nearly as bad as what McCain encountered this time — in which Bush won just 38 percent of the vote. Likewise, McCain outperformed Bob Dole, who won a little less than 41 percent in 1996. And McCain’s percentage of the popular vote might be not too far from George W. Bush’s in 2000, when Bush lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College.In other words, McCain faced tougher challenges than his predecessors, yet somehow managed to win more votes. Just not enough.You hear a lot of talk to the effect that, despite all the obstacles facing his campaign, McCain was actually even, and a little ahead, of Obama until the financial crisis blew everything up. There’s some truth to that; on September 8, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, McCain led Obama 48.3 percent to 45.4 percent. As late as September 17, the two candidates were tied at 45.7 percent each.But that relatively brief moment at the top of the polls didn’t mean that all McCain’s other problems had gone away, or been conquered. Instead, it meant that any new problem, whether it be one as cataclysmic as the financial breakdown or one far less serious, would be placed on top of all of other McCain’s other handicaps, making the wall facing McCain a little higher.A few weeks before the election, a top McCain aide gave me the campaign’s inside view of the situation. "You could think of this as trying to summit a mountain," he said. "Both campaigns have to summit the mountain. In most elections, one campaign has some kind of advantage over the other — maybe they get a ten-minute or a half-hour head start — but both sides have to climb the same face of the mountain. In this election, we’re not climbing the same face of the mountain. They’re climbing the side of the mountain with boardwalks and latte stands and playgrounds for the kids, and we’re climbing the side of the mountain with axes and ice picks and one slip and you’re dead."It wasn’t easy, and it wasn’t fair, but that’s the way things go. And in the end, McCain slipped.
In January, a few days before the South Carolina Democratic primary, I went to a Barack Obama rally in Columbia with a Republican friend who had never before seen Obama in action. This friend’s reaction: "Oh, s**t." The super-enthusiastic crowd was about 3,000 strong — no big deal compared to the audiences Obama would later draw in the general election, but several times what John McCain was attracting in South Carolina at the time. My friend said the scene reminded him of the old clip from Jaws, in which the small-town sheriff, seeing how big the shark really is, says, "We’re gonna need a bigger boat." The question, of course, was whether Republicans actually had a bigger boat.Now we can say for sure that they didn’t.In his concession speech, John McCain referred to his effort as "the most challenged campaign in modern times." He was right. What sank McCain’s presidential bid was a set of the worst conditions to face any candidate in decades, in combination with an opponent who was not only a better campaigner but also the favorite of the nation’s media establishment. And there was some luck involved, too.
Could any candidate have been elected to succeed a president of his own party whose job approval rating was 25 percent? Probably not. Could any candidate have been elected to continue his party’s stay in the White House when roughly 90 percent of Americans believed the country was on the wrong track? Probably not. Could any candidate from the governing party have been elected after the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 4,000 points before one could even turn around? Probably not.McCain faced all those obstacles — and not just those, but a political climate in which his advantage over his opponent was perversely diminished by McCain’s own courage and good judgment. In the primaries, McCain bet his entire candidacy on the surge in Iraq. He was right, and Democrats were wrong. By any measure, he should have benefited, and Democrats should have suffered, when the surge worked. Instead, as Americans achieved greater success in Iraq — and as U.S. deaths fell to 13 last month, equaling the lowest total in a very long time — the war in Iraq simply fell off many voters’ radar screens. McCain’s resoluteness and good sense went largely unrewarded.And yet in spite of it all, McCain still managed to outperform conditions. The vote totals, as of 2 a.m. Eastern Time, show McCain with about 47 percent of the national popular vote. Perhaps that figure will go down a bit, but there’s no doubt that McCain far outshone George H.W. Bush’s 1992 re-election effort — a campaign undertaken in poor conditions for a Republican, but not nearly as bad as what McCain encountered this time — in which Bush won just 38 percent of the vote. Likewise, McCain outperformed Bob Dole, who won a little less than 41 percent in 1996. And McCain’s percentage of the popular vote might be not too far from George W. Bush’s in 2000, when Bush lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College.In other words, McCain faced tougher challenges than his predecessors, yet somehow managed to win more votes. Just not enough.You hear a lot of talk to the effect that, despite all the obstacles facing his campaign, McCain was actually even, and a little ahead, of Obama until the financial crisis blew everything up. There’s some truth to that; on September 8, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, McCain led Obama 48.3 percent to 45.4 percent. As late as September 17, the two candidates were tied at 45.7 percent each.But that relatively brief moment at the top of the polls didn’t mean that all McCain’s other problems had gone away, or been conquered. Instead, it meant that any new problem, whether it be one as cataclysmic as the financial breakdown or one far less serious, would be placed on top of all of other McCain’s other handicaps, making the wall facing McCain a little higher.A few weeks before the election, a top McCain aide gave me the campaign’s inside view of the situation. "You could think of this as trying to summit a mountain," he said. "Both campaigns have to summit the mountain. In most elections, one campaign has some kind of advantage over the other — maybe they get a ten-minute or a half-hour head start — but both sides have to climb the same face of the mountain. In this election, we’re not climbing the same face of the mountain. They’re climbing the side of the mountain with boardwalks and latte stands and playgrounds for the kids, and we’re climbing the side of the mountain with axes and ice picks and one slip and you’re dead."It wasn’t easy, and it wasn’t fair, but that’s the way things go. And in the end, McCain slipped.
Gird your loins, conservatives
By Michelle Malkin
There is no time to lick wounds, point fingers, and wallow in post-election mud.
I’m getting a lot of moan-y, sad-face “What do we do now, Michelle?” e-mails.
What do we do now? We do what we’ve always done.
We stand up for our principles, as we always have — through Democrat administrations and Republican administrations, in bear markets or bull markets, in peacetime and wartime.
We stay positive and focused.
We keep the faith.
We do not apologize for our beliefs. We do not re-brand them, re-form them, or relinquish them. We defend them.
We pay respect to the office of the presidency. We count our blessings and recommit ourselves to our constitutional republic.
We gird our loins, to borrow a phrase from our Vice President-elect.
We lock and load our ideological ammunition.
We fight.
There is no time to lick wounds, point fingers, and wallow in post-election mud.
I’m getting a lot of moan-y, sad-face “What do we do now, Michelle?” e-mails.
What do we do now? We do what we’ve always done.
We stand up for our principles, as we always have — through Democrat administrations and Republican administrations, in bear markets or bull markets, in peacetime and wartime.
We stay positive and focused.
We keep the faith.
We do not apologize for our beliefs. We do not re-brand them, re-form them, or relinquish them. We defend them.
We pay respect to the office of the presidency. We count our blessings and recommit ourselves to our constitutional republic.
We gird our loins, to borrow a phrase from our Vice President-elect.
We lock and load our ideological ammunition.
We fight.
A NEW DAY, A FRESH START
www.boblonsberry.com
It is a sea change, but not a mandate. And that's not a hit on Barack Obama, it is a challenge.
A challenge to make his rhetoric about no more blue states and red states, but simply United States, actually mean something. Unity is earned, not declared, and the simple fact is that one more 51-percent president doesn't bind a country together.
Rather, like George W. Bush, he has tremendous potential to leave it decidedly divided. Democrats are exultantly talking about a wave sweeping the country, about a new hope and an era of change, but the fact is that almost as many people opposed Barack Obama as supported him. Those people aren't cheering today, they are licking their wounds. And while the best of them will give Barack Obama a fair shake, many made up their minds months ago about him.
So President-elect Obama must avoid the temptation to do an end zone dance with his friends. He must rather immediately and convincingly reach out to people who feel like he has looked down his nose at them and their values and culture. The people he once mocked as clinging to their guns and their religion are just as American as the people who voted for him, and almost as numerous, and the country will only become united if he respects them.
It is a sea change, but not a mandate. And that's not a hit on Barack Obama, it is a challenge.
A challenge to make his rhetoric about no more blue states and red states, but simply United States, actually mean something. Unity is earned, not declared, and the simple fact is that one more 51-percent president doesn't bind a country together.
Rather, like George W. Bush, he has tremendous potential to leave it decidedly divided. Democrats are exultantly talking about a wave sweeping the country, about a new hope and an era of change, but the fact is that almost as many people opposed Barack Obama as supported him. Those people aren't cheering today, they are licking their wounds. And while the best of them will give Barack Obama a fair shake, many made up their minds months ago about him.
So President-elect Obama must avoid the temptation to do an end zone dance with his friends. He must rather immediately and convincingly reach out to people who feel like he has looked down his nose at them and their values and culture. The people he once mocked as clinging to their guns and their religion are just as American as the people who voted for him, and almost as numerous, and the country will only become united if he respects them.
AMERICA HAS SPOKEN!
As a American i fully admire and congratulate President elect Barack Obama for his achievement and his Victory, only in America , Hope is a gift that anything is in reach, if you Fight for it, I disagreed with Obama on his Policies and his belief's , and i will continue to stand up for my beliefs , Fight for it and defend my country, Now isn't the time for looking back, To the past and to the mistakes, Now is the time to look ahead , to the future, And as a honest citizen i will set aside my differences, believe in the promise He gave tonight the American People, To change this Country for a better Future, To defend our Country, live the Dream, serve the Country we so love, and believe that a promise to the American people is a promise kept.
God bless the USA.
God bless the USA.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
More.........
VIRGINIA- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
*22% of the vote is African American and Obama is winning 91% of it.
*Among white voters, 58% are backing McCain, while 41% are supporting Obama. In 2004, Kerry won 32% of the vote here while Bush won 68% of it.
*72% disapprove of the job Bush is doing; only 27% approve.
*More than half of voters think McCain will continue Bush's policies; fewer think he will take the country in a different direction.
*Obama is winning the support of both men and women, but white men and white women are backing McCain.
*Among whites, one in five said race was a factor in their vote today and they backed McCain.
*More blacks (4 in 10) said race was a factor and they voted overwhelmingly for Obama.
*Obama looks to be improving on Kerry's margins in Northern Virginia.
*Most voters say McCain as the candidate on the attack: nearly 7 in 10 say he attacked Obama unfairly; fewer than half say Obama attacked McCain unfairly.
INDIANA - POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
*The economy is the top issue here (as it is nationally) and Obama appears to be benefitting from that. Among economy voters, Obama 56% to 43%.
*White working class (those without a college degree and earn less than $50K) are backing Obama slightly over McCain by 51% to 48%.
*Men are divided in their support, while Obama has the advantage with women.
*42% of voters are white evangelicals, up from 35% in 2004. McCain is getting 68% of their support. Bush captured 77% of the vote in 2004.
*35% of voters in IN were looking for a candidate who could bring about change, while almost as many (33%) were looking for someone who shares their values. The change voters are supporting Obama, while the values voters are supporting McCain.
GEORGIA - - POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
*30% of voters are African American (up from 25% in 2004) and 97% are backing Obama.
*Whites are backing McCain by about the same margin they supported Bush in 2004.
*The top candidate quality was values, closely followed by change. Those who selected values as the most important quality backed McCain, while the change voters supported Obama.
NORTH CAROLINA - POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM
*22% of voters were African American (26% in 2004) and Obama is getting 97% of their vote. As expected, an improvement on Kerry's performance four years ago.
*White voters are backing McCain by 62% to 37%.
*11% of voters in NC are new voters, voting for the first time this year, they too have the economy on their minds and 3 in 4 of them are backing Obama.
*Change and values are nearly tied for the #1 quality. Obama wins the change people, while McCain takes the values people.
OHIO - POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM
*86% are worried about the direction of the economy, including more than half who are very worried. (Obama is getting the support of those worried voters.)
*Hillary Clinton won the primary here, and Obama is getting the support of 82% of Democrats who backed her in that contest. 16% are backing McCain.
*12% of voters in Ohio are black, up from 10% in 2004. 98% of them are backing Obama.
*Both white women and white women are going for McCain.
*More voters see view Obama has a candidate who is in touch with people like them, while more voters see McCain has having the experience to serve effectively as president.
*Still, 4 in 10 Ohio voters think Obama's positions on the issues are too liberal.
PENNSYLVANIA - POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM
*A quarter of voters in PA are white Catholics and they are splitting their votes. Kerry lost these voters to Bush by 48% to 52%.
*Seniors are one-fifth of the electorate and just over half are backing Obama. These voters narrowly backed Kerry by 51% to 48% in 2004.
*Obama is getting about two-thirds of the support of voters age 18-29. Kerry won 60% of them in 2004.
*Most voters in the Keystone state made up their minds long ago, but among those who decided in the last week (just over 1 in 10 voters), they are narrowly backing McCain by 51% to 47%.
FLORIDA- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM
*13% of voters here were Hispanics (15% in 2004) and they are breaking for Obama by 55% to 45%. This is a reversal from 2004 when Hispanics backed Bush by 56% to 44%.
*Seniors (24% of voters) are backing McCain over Obama by 53% 46%. In 2004 Bush edged out Kerry by 51% to 48%.
*13% of voters are African American in Florida and they and 95% are backing Obama.
*White men and white women are backing McCain.
*McCain wins on experience here, while more voters see Obama as being more in touch with people like them.
8:00 MISSOURI
* Young voters (19% of voters) are backing Obama; while seniors (17% of voters) give McCain the edge.
* White evangelical are 38% of the vote in Missouri and they are backing McCain by 67% to 32%. Not as strong a showing as Bush in 2004.
*22% of the vote is African American and Obama is winning 91% of it.
*Among white voters, 58% are backing McCain, while 41% are supporting Obama. In 2004, Kerry won 32% of the vote here while Bush won 68% of it.
*72% disapprove of the job Bush is doing; only 27% approve.
*More than half of voters think McCain will continue Bush's policies; fewer think he will take the country in a different direction.
*Obama is winning the support of both men and women, but white men and white women are backing McCain.
*Among whites, one in five said race was a factor in their vote today and they backed McCain.
*More blacks (4 in 10) said race was a factor and they voted overwhelmingly for Obama.
*Obama looks to be improving on Kerry's margins in Northern Virginia.
*Most voters say McCain as the candidate on the attack: nearly 7 in 10 say he attacked Obama unfairly; fewer than half say Obama attacked McCain unfairly.
INDIANA - POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
*The economy is the top issue here (as it is nationally) and Obama appears to be benefitting from that. Among economy voters, Obama 56% to 43%.
*White working class (those without a college degree and earn less than $50K) are backing Obama slightly over McCain by 51% to 48%.
*Men are divided in their support, while Obama has the advantage with women.
*42% of voters are white evangelicals, up from 35% in 2004. McCain is getting 68% of their support. Bush captured 77% of the vote in 2004.
*35% of voters in IN were looking for a candidate who could bring about change, while almost as many (33%) were looking for someone who shares their values. The change voters are supporting Obama, while the values voters are supporting McCain.
GEORGIA - - POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
*30% of voters are African American (up from 25% in 2004) and 97% are backing Obama.
*Whites are backing McCain by about the same margin they supported Bush in 2004.
*The top candidate quality was values, closely followed by change. Those who selected values as the most important quality backed McCain, while the change voters supported Obama.
NORTH CAROLINA - POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM
*22% of voters were African American (26% in 2004) and Obama is getting 97% of their vote. As expected, an improvement on Kerry's performance four years ago.
*White voters are backing McCain by 62% to 37%.
*11% of voters in NC are new voters, voting for the first time this year, they too have the economy on their minds and 3 in 4 of them are backing Obama.
*Change and values are nearly tied for the #1 quality. Obama wins the change people, while McCain takes the values people.
OHIO - POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM
*86% are worried about the direction of the economy, including more than half who are very worried. (Obama is getting the support of those worried voters.)
*Hillary Clinton won the primary here, and Obama is getting the support of 82% of Democrats who backed her in that contest. 16% are backing McCain.
*12% of voters in Ohio are black, up from 10% in 2004. 98% of them are backing Obama.
*Both white women and white women are going for McCain.
*More voters see view Obama has a candidate who is in touch with people like them, while more voters see McCain has having the experience to serve effectively as president.
*Still, 4 in 10 Ohio voters think Obama's positions on the issues are too liberal.
PENNSYLVANIA - POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM
*A quarter of voters in PA are white Catholics and they are splitting their votes. Kerry lost these voters to Bush by 48% to 52%.
*Seniors are one-fifth of the electorate and just over half are backing Obama. These voters narrowly backed Kerry by 51% to 48% in 2004.
*Obama is getting about two-thirds of the support of voters age 18-29. Kerry won 60% of them in 2004.
*Most voters in the Keystone state made up their minds long ago, but among those who decided in the last week (just over 1 in 10 voters), they are narrowly backing McCain by 51% to 47%.
FLORIDA- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM
*13% of voters here were Hispanics (15% in 2004) and they are breaking for Obama by 55% to 45%. This is a reversal from 2004 when Hispanics backed Bush by 56% to 44%.
*Seniors (24% of voters) are backing McCain over Obama by 53% 46%. In 2004 Bush edged out Kerry by 51% to 48%.
*13% of voters are African American in Florida and they and 95% are backing Obama.
*White men and white women are backing McCain.
*McCain wins on experience here, while more voters see Obama as being more in touch with people like them.
8:00 MISSOURI
* Young voters (19% of voters) are backing Obama; while seniors (17% of voters) give McCain the edge.
* White evangelical are 38% of the vote in Missouri and they are backing McCain by 67% to 32%. Not as strong a showing as Bush in 2004.
Virginia Exit Polls:
–McCain leads among white men 51-47 in early exit polls (5:15 batch)
–Obama leads among “new voters” 69-31.
–Late deciders breaking for McCain 55-45.
–Asian turnout favors McCain.
–Obama leads among “new voters” 69-31.
–Late deciders breaking for McCain 55-45.
–Asian turnout favors McCain.
Ohio Exit Polls:
–McCain leads among white men 58-39 in early exit polls (5:15 batch)
–Obama leads among “new voters” 63-36.
–Late deciders for Obama 54-39.
–Heavy turnout in GOP areas.
[ed. things looking surprisingly good for McCain in Ohio]
–Obama leads among “new voters” 63-36.
–Late deciders for Obama 54-39.
–Heavy turnout in GOP areas.
[ed. things looking surprisingly good for McCain in Ohio]
BREAKING: Fox News Exit Polls
27% of voters say they were contacted by Obama camp.
19% of voters say they were contacted by McCain camp.
32% will be excited if Obama wins.
12% will be excited if McCain wins.
23% will be scared of Obama wins.
30% will be scared if McCain wins.
51% say government should do more to solve problems.
43% say government is doing to much.
70% worry about another terrorist attack.
67% worry about being able to afford healthcare.
32% not worried about affording healthcare.
28% of voters oppose offshore drilling.
68% in favor offshore drilling.
75% said Supreme court nominations factored intlo their opinion
70% predict their taxes will go up under Obama.
61% predict their taxes will go up under McCain.
49% predict their taxes will go up no matter who wins.
67% think Biden is qualified to be President.
38% think Palin is qualified to be President.
61% say Michelle Obama would make a good first lady.
19% of voters say they were contacted by McCain camp.
32% will be excited if Obama wins.
12% will be excited if McCain wins.
23% will be scared of Obama wins.
30% will be scared if McCain wins.
51% say government should do more to solve problems.
43% say government is doing to much.
70% worry about another terrorist attack.
67% worry about being able to afford healthcare.
32% not worried about affording healthcare.
28% of voters oppose offshore drilling.
68% in favor offshore drilling.
75% said Supreme court nominations factored intlo their opinion
70% predict their taxes will go up under Obama.
61% predict their taxes will go up under McCain.
49% predict their taxes will go up no matter who wins.
67% think Biden is qualified to be President.
38% think Palin is qualified to be President.
61% say Michelle Obama would make a good first lady.
Pennyslvania Governor: Voter turnout looks good- but not as high as he hoped in Philadelphia
Gov. Ed Rendell said he was "optimistic but not overconfident" about the outcome in Philadelphia and Pennsylvania today
FOX NEWS - No massive democrat turnout detected so far, Obama camp worried
Fox news reporter with Obama campaign reporting at 2:45pm eastern that democrat voter turnout in NH is less than predicted so far. Obama campaign so worried about turnout in Virginia and Missouri that they are activating "backup" volunteers to make calls from home.
Pottsville, Pennsylvania: God-fearing, gun-loving, McCain-voting
(AFP) – Pottsville in central Pennsylvania was a lonely place for supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Tuesday.
Even though Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992, many of the God-fearing, gun-loving, (American) football-playing townsfolk of Pottsville, who were raised on wages earned at the aluminium plant in nearby Cressona or the Yuengling brewery in the center of town, are voting for Republican candidate John McCain, 72.
Even though Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992, many of the God-fearing, gun-loving, (American) football-playing townsfolk of Pottsville, who were raised on wages earned at the aluminium plant in nearby Cressona or the Yuengling brewery in the center of town, are voting for Republican candidate John McCain, 72.
OHIO: heavy GOP turnout
This is just a report based on phone contacts with other people at "red" polling places and with Montgomery County (Dayton) GOP. (Kerry won this county by 2% in 04)
1) ALL the red precincts were extraordinarily heavy until about noon. Some finally calmed down. Turnout was at very, very high levels. 3x the wait time of 2004.
County GOP says we're hearing this from all our red areas.
2) Better news: many of the Dem and African-American precincts coming in way low. They are voted out through early voting
1) ALL the red precincts were extraordinarily heavy until about noon. Some finally calmed down. Turnout was at very, very high levels. 3x the wait time of 2004.
County GOP says we're hearing this from all our red areas.
2) Better news: many of the Dem and African-American precincts coming in way low. They are voted out through early voting
Battleground poll projection: OBAMA 50.2. MCCAIN 48.3
The past election's their projection were very accurate with the actual results, and by contrast in 2000 they projected Bush 49, Gore 47, but the actual results were Gore 48.38, Bush 47.7 , and Bush won the EV.
So if you believe in Hope, Mccain could win, the EV ,and even close the deal with the Popular vote. it all depends in Turnout.
So if you believe in Hope, Mccain could win, the EV ,and even close the deal with the Popular vote. it all depends in Turnout.
ONE MORE PORTION OF POLLS.... THEN GO VOTE...
Internel polls from mccain camp.
i can't confirm this, but i decided to post it, if we can trust Zogbama, Rasshtusim, and gallup, you can trust these too...
PA: MCCAIN 52%, Obama 40%, Undecided 6%
NJ: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, Undecided 7%
MI: McCain 45%, Obama 44%, Undecided 7%
VA: McCain 53%, Obama 42%, Undecided 3%
CO: McCain 50%, Obama 44%, Undecided 4%
MO: McCain 49%, Obama 42%, Undecided 7%
FL: McCain 52%, Obama 44%, Undecided 3%
i can't confirm this, but i decided to post it, if we can trust Zogbama, Rasshtusim, and gallup, you can trust these too...
PA: MCCAIN 52%, Obama 40%, Undecided 6%
NJ: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, Undecided 7%
MI: McCain 45%, Obama 44%, Undecided 7%
VA: McCain 53%, Obama 42%, Undecided 3%
CO: McCain 50%, Obama 44%, Undecided 4%
MO: McCain 49%, Obama 42%, Undecided 7%
FL: McCain 52%, Obama 44%, Undecided 3%
William Ayers voted already in Chicago
As your pooler waited for Barack Obama to arrive at the Beluah Shoesmith Elementary School, Bill Ayers showed up with his wife to cast his vote. Newsweek's Richard Wolffe first noticed Ayers. Your pooler confirmed his identity after yelling out "Mr. Ayers, who did you vote for?" He turned around but did not answer. An official from the Chicago elections board told your pooler sternly not to yell at the polling station.
LEAKED.... excerpts of Obama's concession speech tonight...
.... My fellow American's... I HAD A DREAM,i was on on the path to be reported to duty, to serve as your President.. but NOT THIS TIME, NOT THIS YEAR, THE STAKES ARE TOO HIGH...
A Repeat of 2004 Philly Voter Chaos, Fraud
GOP Election Board members have been tossed out of polling stations in more than half a dozen polling stations in Philadelphia because of their party status.
A liberal judge previously ruled that court-appointed poll watchers could be NOT removed from their boards by an on-site election judge, but that is exactly what is happening.
It is the duty of election board workers to monitor and guard the integrity of the voting process.
Denying access to the minority (in this case Republican) poll watchers and inspectors is a violation of Pennsylvania state law. Those who violate the law can be punished with a misdemeanor and subjected to a fine of $1,000 and sent to prison between one month and two years.
Those on site as describing it as "pandemonium" and there may be video coming of the chaos.
Some of the precincts where Republicans have been removed are: the 44th Ward, 12th and 13th divisions; 6th Ward, 12th division; 32nd Ward, Division 28.
“Election board officials guard the legitimacy of the election process and the idea that Republicans are being intimidated and banned for partisan purposes does not allow for an honest and open election process,” said McCain-Palin spokesman Ben Porritt in a statement to Townhall.
A liberal judge previously ruled that court-appointed poll watchers could be NOT removed from their boards by an on-site election judge, but that is exactly what is happening.
It is the duty of election board workers to monitor and guard the integrity of the voting process.
Denying access to the minority (in this case Republican) poll watchers and inspectors is a violation of Pennsylvania state law. Those who violate the law can be punished with a misdemeanor and subjected to a fine of $1,000 and sent to prison between one month and two years.
Those on site as describing it as "pandemonium" and there may be video coming of the chaos.
Some of the precincts where Republicans have been removed are: the 44th Ward, 12th and 13th divisions; 6th Ward, 12th division; 32nd Ward, Division 28.
“Election board officials guard the legitimacy of the election process and the idea that Republicans are being intimidated and banned for partisan purposes does not allow for an honest and open election process,” said McCain-Palin spokesman Ben Porritt in a statement to Townhall.
MCCAIN GAINS IN LATEST ZOGBY POLL
STILL TRAILING BUT THE GAINS ARE IN 1 DAY:
PA: + 3.9
OH: + 4.3
MO: +1.7
PA: + 3.9
OH: + 4.3
MO: +1.7
Monday, November 3, 2008
MVRed.com Prediction: McCain 281-Obama 257
MVRed.com is prepared to make a well thought out and calculated prediction for the Presidency of the United States. We have run our calculations with the latest polls out at 2:15pm from Rasmussen Reports. As you will see in our chart below almost all the results in our *likely* voter scenario give Obama a small win in each state, but that is due to the great oversampling of Democrats this election cycle. Our likely voter model averages out the party id numbers pollsters are using this year with the 2006 exit poll numbers for all the states below.
We have calculated that in the states of OH-PA-VA that the undecided voters, which are white voters over the age of 40 will break 65-35% to John McCain. Many pundits on both sides of the aisle admit that if these white voters haven’t gotten behind Obama after his 2 year campaign, they likely won’t in the next 24 hours. We are also taking in effect that Hillary Clinton won the undecided white voters by about 70-30% in OH-PA. In the primaries Obama’s numbers compared to the actual results were about -1, while Hillary’s were about -4.5. If that occurs tomorrow with McCain, he should win Ohio by 2-3%, and PA by about 1%.
We also see the tightening in NC and MO and FL back towards McCain which should work in his favor. The other state that will decide election night with Pennsylvania, will be Virgina. McCain is definitely down here, but history says McCain should win this red state. Bush did 2.4% better than what the final polls said in VA in 2004. If that happens, McCain should win.
The bottom line will be this: Appalachia. This is an area where Hillary dominated and lost about 3 counties. McCain needs to take 80% of these counties which extend from Central/Western PA, Eastern OH, Eastern WV, and Western VA to win tomorrow. We believe McCain ignored the Mountain West and will lose NV by 2%, CO by 3%, and NM by 6%.
ELECTORAL VOTE PREDICTION: MCCAIN: 281 - OBAMA: 257
POPULAR VOTE: Obama: 49.8% - McCain: 48.1% - Other: 2.1%
If McCain loses Pennsylvania and Virginia, Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. McCain’s only path to victory if he loses VA is to win NV, which is possible, but very doubtful
We have calculated that in the states of OH-PA-VA that the undecided voters, which are white voters over the age of 40 will break 65-35% to John McCain. Many pundits on both sides of the aisle admit that if these white voters haven’t gotten behind Obama after his 2 year campaign, they likely won’t in the next 24 hours. We are also taking in effect that Hillary Clinton won the undecided white voters by about 70-30% in OH-PA. In the primaries Obama’s numbers compared to the actual results were about -1, while Hillary’s were about -4.5. If that occurs tomorrow with McCain, he should win Ohio by 2-3%, and PA by about 1%.
We also see the tightening in NC and MO and FL back towards McCain which should work in his favor. The other state that will decide election night with Pennsylvania, will be Virgina. McCain is definitely down here, but history says McCain should win this red state. Bush did 2.4% better than what the final polls said in VA in 2004. If that happens, McCain should win.
The bottom line will be this: Appalachia. This is an area where Hillary dominated and lost about 3 counties. McCain needs to take 80% of these counties which extend from Central/Western PA, Eastern OH, Eastern WV, and Western VA to win tomorrow. We believe McCain ignored the Mountain West and will lose NV by 2%, CO by 3%, and NM by 6%.
ELECTORAL VOTE PREDICTION: MCCAIN: 281 - OBAMA: 257
POPULAR VOTE: Obama: 49.8% - McCain: 48.1% - Other: 2.1%
If McCain loses Pennsylvania and Virginia, Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. McCain’s only path to victory if he loses VA is to win NV, which is possible, but very doubtful
FOX News Reports McCain Camp VERY OPTIMISTIC!
Carl Cameron who is traveling with the McCain Campaign says John McCain is the most optimistic as he has been in 14 years!
Carl Cameron reported:
"When you look at what's happened in the polls in Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida- They believe that they've strengthened. Essentially, the conservative districts in those states are now secured. That they still have a little bit of work to do particularly in the much vaunted GOP ground game; knocking on doors, making phone calls, lots of emails to shore them up entirely. But, most of the Red States they think they're now safe in... In places like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Missouri expect a late night.
Joe Scarborough: 'ghost in the machine' could upset Obama victory
"Polls are getting hard to read at this point," MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski remarked on Sunday's edition of Morning Joe.
"Well, they are because they're all, almost all in Barack Obama's corner at this point so if you are the Barack Obama campaign you really only have two things to worry about," Scarborough replied. "One, complacency on part of your supporters which can be very, very damaging impact on the campaign or number two, that there's a ghost in the machine. That somehow these polls are going to be incorrect like the polls that assured Barack Obama was going to lock up the Democratic nomination after New Hampshire.
"Of course we know that didn't happen," Scarborough added. "So..."
"Well, they are because they're all, almost all in Barack Obama's corner at this point so if you are the Barack Obama campaign you really only have two things to worry about," Scarborough replied. "One, complacency on part of your supporters which can be very, very damaging impact on the campaign or number two, that there's a ghost in the machine. That somehow these polls are going to be incorrect like the polls that assured Barack Obama was going to lock up the Democratic nomination after New Hampshire.
"Of course we know that didn't happen," Scarborough added. "So..."
Zogby:More democrats are undecided....
FLORIDA: OBAMA 47.5, MCCAIN 46.2 McCain wins 89% of Republicans to Obama's 85% of Democrats. We found more undecided Democrats (4.6%) than Republicans (2.7%. ) .
NC: MCCAIN 49.3, OBAMA 47.7 ..but McCain is doing slightly better with Republicans than Obama is with Democrats.
NC: MCCAIN 49.3, OBAMA 47.7 ..but McCain is doing slightly better with Republicans than Obama is with Democrats.
Can Obama win popular vote but lose election?
Yahoo:
It's a nightmare scenario for Democrats — their nominee Barack Obama winning the popular vote while Republican John McCain ekes out an Electoral College victory. Sure, McCain trails in every recent national poll. Sure, surveys show that Obama leads in the race to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Sure, chances of Republicans retaining the White House are remote.
But some last-minute state polls show the GOP nominee closing the gap in key states — Republican turf of Virginia, Florida and Ohio among them, and Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania, too.
If the tightening polls are correct and undecided voters in those states break McCain's way — both big ifs — that could make for a repeat of the 2000 heartbreaker for Democrats that gave Republicans the White House.
It's a nightmare scenario for Democrats — their nominee Barack Obama winning the popular vote while Republican John McCain ekes out an Electoral College victory. Sure, McCain trails in every recent national poll. Sure, surveys show that Obama leads in the race to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Sure, chances of Republicans retaining the White House are remote.
But some last-minute state polls show the GOP nominee closing the gap in key states — Republican turf of Virginia, Florida and Ohio among them, and Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania, too.
If the tightening polls are correct and undecided voters in those states break McCain's way — both big ifs — that could make for a repeat of the 2000 heartbreaker for Democrats that gave Republicans the White House.
McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state....
read more on Drudgereport
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state....
read more on Drudgereport
On Tuesday, Change (Mccain) Wins 275 - 263
By Dan Proft -Don Wade & Roma Morning Show - WLS 890-AM :
On Tuesday, I predict that the nation, suffering from George W. Bush fatigue, will reject a third Bush term and vote for a change....
.....That is why I boldly predict that my fellow Americans in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada will vote for change, they will vote for reform and they will make John McCain the 44th President of the United States.
Obama is no agent of change from the last 8 years. Like Bush, Obama is a political alchemist who views the federal government as the sovereign remedy for anything and everything that ails the world.
When it comes to matters economic, Barack Obama is to George W. Bush what V.I. Lenin was to John Maynard Keynes. In other words, Obama is a socialist in a hurry. Same failed philosophy, different pace.
While John McCain has not distinguished himself as a visionary on these matters, his more modest plans are likely to mean less social engineering from the Presidency. That alone would be welcome change.
I think a lot of common-sense, play-by-the-rules Americans have begun to sense this difference as the Presidential campaign drama has moved towards its resolution in the last few weeks. And I believe those Americans will deliver an electoral victory of 275-263 for John McCain.
If I'm wrong, I don't want to be right.
On Tuesday, I predict that the nation, suffering from George W. Bush fatigue, will reject a third Bush term and vote for a change....
.....That is why I boldly predict that my fellow Americans in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada will vote for change, they will vote for reform and they will make John McCain the 44th President of the United States.
Obama is no agent of change from the last 8 years. Like Bush, Obama is a political alchemist who views the federal government as the sovereign remedy for anything and everything that ails the world.
When it comes to matters economic, Barack Obama is to George W. Bush what V.I. Lenin was to John Maynard Keynes. In other words, Obama is a socialist in a hurry. Same failed philosophy, different pace.
While John McCain has not distinguished himself as a visionary on these matters, his more modest plans are likely to mean less social engineering from the Presidency. That alone would be welcome change.
I think a lot of common-sense, play-by-the-rules Americans have begun to sense this difference as the Presidential campaign drama has moved towards its resolution in the last few weeks. And I believe those Americans will deliver an electoral victory of 275-263 for John McCain.
If I'm wrong, I don't want to be right.
PREDICTION:MCCAIN-PALIN 309 OBAMA-BIDEN 229
...........What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?
North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.
What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?
North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.
What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.
BUBBY DIED........
(AP) - Barack Obama says his grandmother died Monday.
SHE DIDN'T WANA SEE HIM GET DEFEATED...
MY CONDOLANCE TO THE OBAMA FAMILY...OUR HEARTS ARE WITH U AT THIS DIFFICULT TIME...
STAY STRONG...
SHE DIDN'T WANA SEE HIM GET DEFEATED...
MY CONDOLANCE TO THE OBAMA FAMILY...OUR HEARTS ARE WITH U AT THIS DIFFICULT TIME...
STAY STRONG...
RJ's 2008 Election Prediction: A MCCAIN VICTORY
Four years ago, I offered my predictions on the presidential election. And I was pretty darn accurate. (A helluva lot better than those exit polls, amiright?)
This year, I'll offer my predictions on the presidential race, and also include my predictions for the Senate and House as well.
Since it's trendy, first I've got a map of the electoral vote in the popular colors, followed by a detailed breakdown by state and my predictions for the House and Senate races.
Rasmussen/Fox Poll: OBAMA IN FOR A DEFEAT
OHIO : TIE 49%
FLORIDA: MCCAIN 50% , OBAMA 49%
MISSOURI: MCCAIN 49%, OBAMA 49%
NC: MCCAIN 50% ,OBAMA 49%
VIRGINIA & COLORADO: OBAMA 51%, MCCAIN 47%
FLORIDA: MCCAIN 50% , OBAMA 49%
MISSOURI: MCCAIN 49%, OBAMA 49%
NC: MCCAIN 50% ,OBAMA 49%
VIRGINIA & COLORADO: OBAMA 51%, MCCAIN 47%
McCain Can Pull It Off
newsmax:
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within . . . For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation . . . he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear. The traitor is the plague.”
— Cicero
So Obama says he will change the world? One of those myriad unanswered questions is, If so, will it be for the better or worse?
He vows to create a "civilian national security force" apparently funded to military levels. What is that about? Does he intend to create a new armed militia . . . kinda like Hitler did? Who will fill the ranks? Where will the money come from? What will be the chain of command? Does he intend it to supplement or complement the established military force structure?
He wants to redistribute the wealth by taking from the rich (and almost rich) and giving it to the “disadvantaged” masses. Who decides how much is too much? Who reaps the benefits of others innovation and hard work? Will there be an exodus of business talent, expertise, and jobs?
Polls say it is Obama in a blowout . . . and yet other polls say it is not. Obama leads by 10 points and/or McCain leads by one? Hey, the only poll that really counts is Tuesday Nov. 4.
Obama didn't know his aunt is an illegal alien scofflaw and was shocked and amazed that what his preacher was saying for 20 years is what he was saying for 20 years? He didn't really know Bill Ayers all that well. He was born in Hawaii despite all that Internet noise and annoying inability to silence those wack job critics by just showing them a for-real piece of paper.
Obama claims he did not know his aunt was living in the United States illegally for nearly four years prior to The Associated Press report. Reportedly, the man who would be king last heard from Zeituni Onyango, “who attended his swearing-in ceremony to the U.S. Senate in 2005 two years ago, when she called to say she was in Boston.”
The Associated Press confirmed Onyango's illegal status. It created an annoying diversion for the Obama campaign during the big final push to Election Day and stoked suspicions among supporters of a political motive behind the timing of the leak.
Obama chief strategist David Axelrod said, “I think they are pretty suspicious of things that are dumped in the marketplace 72 hours before a campaign, so I am not concerned about that.”
Asked if he was suggesting political motives from a Republican administration, Axelrod said, “I am not saying anything at this point.”
Wait a minute Dave! If you think the American people are “pretty suspicious of things that are dumped in the marketplace 72 hours before a campaign,” how do you think they will react to having had this kind of stuff kept from them (intentionally?) for two flipping years by co-conspiring political hacks aided and abetted by a complicit media machine?
The mainstream liberal media has enabled an under-vetted, smoke-and-mirrors cipher who has been able to gallop to the brink of the most powerful position in the world. Now that the house of cards trembles they remain diffident to admit that the stunningly attractive date they picked up at closing time may actually be a transvestite with a terminal STS.
There are consequences to what we do and don't do in life. No one is immune. Who would have thunk it that Hillary may actually have done less harm to the republic than Obama?
Sadly, because of the horrific malfeasance of the fourth estate, whatever does or does not happen Tuesday will inevitably result in the glass being half empty . . . not half full.
I still believe that notwithstanding all the postulating, extrapolating, and pontificating, McCain could still win in a squeaker. If I am right (and for sure I remain a minority contrarian) race relations will suffer a 40-year space-time continuum brain fart.
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within . . . For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation . . . he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear. The traitor is the plague.”
— Cicero
So Obama says he will change the world? One of those myriad unanswered questions is, If so, will it be for the better or worse?
He vows to create a "civilian national security force" apparently funded to military levels. What is that about? Does he intend to create a new armed militia . . . kinda like Hitler did? Who will fill the ranks? Where will the money come from? What will be the chain of command? Does he intend it to supplement or complement the established military force structure?
He wants to redistribute the wealth by taking from the rich (and almost rich) and giving it to the “disadvantaged” masses. Who decides how much is too much? Who reaps the benefits of others innovation and hard work? Will there be an exodus of business talent, expertise, and jobs?
Polls say it is Obama in a blowout . . . and yet other polls say it is not. Obama leads by 10 points and/or McCain leads by one? Hey, the only poll that really counts is Tuesday Nov. 4.
Obama didn't know his aunt is an illegal alien scofflaw and was shocked and amazed that what his preacher was saying for 20 years is what he was saying for 20 years? He didn't really know Bill Ayers all that well. He was born in Hawaii despite all that Internet noise and annoying inability to silence those wack job critics by just showing them a for-real piece of paper.
Obama claims he did not know his aunt was living in the United States illegally for nearly four years prior to The Associated Press report. Reportedly, the man who would be king last heard from Zeituni Onyango, “who attended his swearing-in ceremony to the U.S. Senate in 2005 two years ago, when she called to say she was in Boston.”
The Associated Press confirmed Onyango's illegal status. It created an annoying diversion for the Obama campaign during the big final push to Election Day and stoked suspicions among supporters of a political motive behind the timing of the leak.
Obama chief strategist David Axelrod said, “I think they are pretty suspicious of things that are dumped in the marketplace 72 hours before a campaign, so I am not concerned about that.”
Asked if he was suggesting political motives from a Republican administration, Axelrod said, “I am not saying anything at this point.”
Wait a minute Dave! If you think the American people are “pretty suspicious of things that are dumped in the marketplace 72 hours before a campaign,” how do you think they will react to having had this kind of stuff kept from them (intentionally?) for two flipping years by co-conspiring political hacks aided and abetted by a complicit media machine?
The mainstream liberal media has enabled an under-vetted, smoke-and-mirrors cipher who has been able to gallop to the brink of the most powerful position in the world. Now that the house of cards trembles they remain diffident to admit that the stunningly attractive date they picked up at closing time may actually be a transvestite with a terminal STS.
There are consequences to what we do and don't do in life. No one is immune. Who would have thunk it that Hillary may actually have done less harm to the republic than Obama?
Sadly, because of the horrific malfeasance of the fourth estate, whatever does or does not happen Tuesday will inevitably result in the glass being half empty . . . not half full.
I still believe that notwithstanding all the postulating, extrapolating, and pontificating, McCain could still win in a squeaker. If I am right (and for sure I remain a minority contrarian) race relations will suffer a 40-year space-time continuum brain fart.
Bob Krumm predicts McCain win
ere is my prediction. Wednesday morning you can grade me on how well I did.
Arizona: Don’t believe the hype. John McCain is in no danger of doing an Al Gore and losing his home state. McCain by ten.
Colorado: Bush won here by almost five. Barack Obama thinks that, along with Iowa, the Rocky Mountain State is his best chance for a pickup. The youth vote in Boulder and Denver will be up this year. So too will be the military vote in Colorado Springs and the rancher/farmer/landowner vote everywhere else. Net effect: some change in the Democratic direction, but not enough to swing the state. McCain by two.
Florida: McCain will do better with Jewish and older voters than did Bush four years ago when he won the state 52-47. They turn out to vote. The youth vote that Obama depends on will vote just like it always has in the Sunshine State: not very much. McCain by four.
Georgia, North Carolina, and the rest of the Deep South: Black turnout for Obama will be huge. It won’t be enough. Not even close. McCain will win the Tarheel State by eight points. The rest of the states between South Carolina and Louisiana will select him by ten points plus.
Indiana: In spite even of the fact that more people will vote in Lake County than live there, this is still a reliably red state. Bush won the Hoosier State by 21 points. However, Tuesday afternoon’s leaked exit polls will indicate that in Indiana Obama is leading McCain. Indiana’s polls are among the first in the nation to close. MSNBC will call the state for Obama soon after the polls close. They want to call it early in order to depress turnout in places like Colorado where polls will remain open three hours longer. Objectivity be damned. The other networks will be more cautious. For good reason; Obama starts out with a 13-point lead in exit polling simply because Republicans are less likely to answer them. When the actual returns come in from places other than Gary and Bloomington, they will reveal a race that wasn’t even close. McCain by double digits. MSNBC will be the butt of jokes on Leno and SNL after having called Indiana so wrong.
Iowa: The Hawkeye State is closer than the polls would make you think-why else would Barack Obama be there on the final weekend? If Iowa had a normal primary system, McCain would win. But it doesn’t. There is something even more important than the presidency at stake: the Iowa Caucuses are on trial in 2008. In a contested race they haven’t successfully selected a Democratic president since 1976. (And they’ve never selected a successful Democratic president.) If Obama loses this year Iowans know that the Hawkeye Cauci could go bye-bye (and with them will go ethanol subsidies). This is one of only two formerly red states he swings in his direction. Obama by five.
Missouri: Just like the last couple times, a Clinton appointee will order polling places to stay open until midnight, but only in Jackson County and St. Louis City. A federal judge will shut the polls down because the first judge wouldn’t keep polls open in the more Republican St. Louis County, which similarly experienced long lines and delays. The “Show me” state won’t like what Obama has shown them. McCain will clear the 50% hurdle.
Montana and North Dakota: These are not tossup states. How do I know? Look at the money being spent there. If they were really as close as the public polls say they are Barack Obama would be there. What these northern Great Plains states are instead is evidence that the public polls are broken this year. Bush won both states by double digits. So too will McCain.
Nevada: Usually reliably Republican, however the biggest boom town in the country, Las Vegas, is now in its biggest bust. Bush won 50.5% to 47.9% four years ago. Clark County will be ready to manufacture the votes necessary to secure an Obama victory. It won’t be necessary. Obama will outperform Kerry’s totals and win the Silver State by three points.
New Hampshire: John Kerry won here by a margin of 1.3%. But Kerry was from Massachusetts whose Boston media market blankets the southern third of the Granite State. Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties, the state’s two largest, went for Bush by just a few points four years ago. However, without a neighbor on the ticket, McCain’s margin in both of the state’s southern counties will be larger. Besides, if there is one word that describes the citizens of New England’s iconoclast state, it is “cantankerous” (but in a lovable way). McCain is cantankerous too. He always exceeds expectations in New Hampshire. Obama always underperforms there. And New Hampshire always surprises. Granite Staters love to lie to pollsters—it’s their way of telling the media what they think of them, and it announces that New Hampshirites know a little bit more about this whole presidential selection thing than most people–especially those upstart Iowans. McCain by two. When that is announced you will hear screams from off the set during CBS’ broadcast. Keith Olbermann will openly cry. All eyes—the dry ones at least—will then shift to Colorado and Pennsylvania, both of which Obama will need to win in order to prevail. For the first time Tuesday evening the tone of the news coverage will shift to, “Can Obama pull it out?”
New Mexico: With its Democratic governor, New Mexico is even more blue than it was four years ago when Kerry won here by only 6,000 votes, the smallest margin of any state in nation. Obama wins by five. But the real loser of the evening is Bill Richardson, who even though he delivered his state, committed the unpardonable crime of crossing the Clintons. Scandal will find him.
Ohio: Like Missouri, the Buckeye State almost always goes with the winner. It will again this time. Turnout in Butler, Clermont, and Warren Counties will overwhelm new registrations in the state’s urban areas—an unexpectedly high number of whom don’t show up to vote because ACORN simply made up names in Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Montgomery Counties. Every county east of Cincinnati and South of I-70 except for Athens goes for McCain–many by a margin of three or four to one. Keep your eyes on Mahoning County. Bush got only 37% there four years ago. If McCain clears that mark by five points or more it’s a signal that Ohioan Joe Wurzelbacher helped McCain make inroads with labor voters nationwide. That level of support in Youngstown indicates a McCain win in nearby Pennsylvania too. McCain takes Ohio by 50,000 votes. Clinton supporter Governor Ted Strickland is caught smiling during a phone call with Bill when he didn’t know he was on camera. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner’s head explodes because she realizes that without Obama in office to shield her, a federal investigation of ACORN is going to incriminate her.
Pennsylvania: In a year that is slightly more Democratic than 2004 when Pennsylvania went blue 50.9% to 48.4%, the outcome in the Keystone State should not be in doubt. It’s in doubt this year because Obama and his allies have done everything they can to lose this state. Obama will lose rural and small town Pennsylvania by huge margins. He will win Pittsburgh, and especially Philly, by large margins. Erie will go for Obama by the slimmest of margins—if at all—further indicating how poorly Obama performed with white middle class Rust Belt voters. Pennsylvania won’t be called until late. It won’t be decided until the courts have spoken. That’s not good news for Republicans if the state’s 21 electoral votes make the difference. (The Philadelphia machine plays dirty.) At daybreak the state is still a tossup with less than 10,000 votes separating the candidates. But the real winner is Governor Ed Rendell who spends every day from now until January 20th yelling “I told you so,”—first because he said that Democrats should have picked Hillary, and second because he warned Obama that he wasn’t spending enough time in his state. He was right both times.
Virginia: Lots of newly registered voters helps Obama, right? Not exactly. A large number of them are newly registered to vote in red counties. A lot of them are military voters in Tidewater and DC, who this year registered to vote in VA instead of their home states. They prefer McCain 3:1. Bush won the Commonwealth 53-45 in 2004. The very popular former governor Mark Warner, in an effort to confuse the voters that he is the same Warner as the retiring Republican one whose seat he seeks, is not identifying himself as a Democrat in his advertising this year. That should be a clue. McCain by five.
Wisconsin: What? Wisconsin a tossup state? Yes. John Kerry won by only 10,000 votes. The Badger State will end up being much closer than anyone suspects. Madison’s youth vote won’t turn out in expected numbers. Obama will underperform expectations in Milwaukee and Green Bay. Obama will pull it out, but when most of the networks report when its polls close that Wisconsin is too close to call, Obama’s supporters will feel like they’ve been slapped in the face by a cold wet musky (Wisconsin’s state fish). It will be the first indication to them that the exit polls they’ve been celebrating since midday are off. Way off. Obama by only three.
Nationwide: Going in to election day, Obama will be leading 47% to 44% with 7% undecided. McCain wins the undecided almost 5:2. Increased support from black voters in the three Ds (DC, Detroit, and the Deep South) along with gains in other reliably red states runs up Obama’s popular vote totals, but adds nothing to the electoral bottom line. The only states he turns in his favor are two very white ones (Iowa 2% black and Nevada 6% black), providing evidence against the charge of racism. But facts don’t get in the way of the story line that racism decided the race.
Final popular vote tally: Obama 49.2%, McCain 48.8%, Other 2%.
Electoral votes: Obama 244, McCain 273, Pennsylvania’s 21 TBD.
Wednesday the 5th won’t be pretty
Arizona: Don’t believe the hype. John McCain is in no danger of doing an Al Gore and losing his home state. McCain by ten.
Colorado: Bush won here by almost five. Barack Obama thinks that, along with Iowa, the Rocky Mountain State is his best chance for a pickup. The youth vote in Boulder and Denver will be up this year. So too will be the military vote in Colorado Springs and the rancher/farmer/landowner vote everywhere else. Net effect: some change in the Democratic direction, but not enough to swing the state. McCain by two.
Florida: McCain will do better with Jewish and older voters than did Bush four years ago when he won the state 52-47. They turn out to vote. The youth vote that Obama depends on will vote just like it always has in the Sunshine State: not very much. McCain by four.
Georgia, North Carolina, and the rest of the Deep South: Black turnout for Obama will be huge. It won’t be enough. Not even close. McCain will win the Tarheel State by eight points. The rest of the states between South Carolina and Louisiana will select him by ten points plus.
Indiana: In spite even of the fact that more people will vote in Lake County than live there, this is still a reliably red state. Bush won the Hoosier State by 21 points. However, Tuesday afternoon’s leaked exit polls will indicate that in Indiana Obama is leading McCain. Indiana’s polls are among the first in the nation to close. MSNBC will call the state for Obama soon after the polls close. They want to call it early in order to depress turnout in places like Colorado where polls will remain open three hours longer. Objectivity be damned. The other networks will be more cautious. For good reason; Obama starts out with a 13-point lead in exit polling simply because Republicans are less likely to answer them. When the actual returns come in from places other than Gary and Bloomington, they will reveal a race that wasn’t even close. McCain by double digits. MSNBC will be the butt of jokes on Leno and SNL after having called Indiana so wrong.
Iowa: The Hawkeye State is closer than the polls would make you think-why else would Barack Obama be there on the final weekend? If Iowa had a normal primary system, McCain would win. But it doesn’t. There is something even more important than the presidency at stake: the Iowa Caucuses are on trial in 2008. In a contested race they haven’t successfully selected a Democratic president since 1976. (And they’ve never selected a successful Democratic president.) If Obama loses this year Iowans know that the Hawkeye Cauci could go bye-bye (and with them will go ethanol subsidies). This is one of only two formerly red states he swings in his direction. Obama by five.
Missouri: Just like the last couple times, a Clinton appointee will order polling places to stay open until midnight, but only in Jackson County and St. Louis City. A federal judge will shut the polls down because the first judge wouldn’t keep polls open in the more Republican St. Louis County, which similarly experienced long lines and delays. The “Show me” state won’t like what Obama has shown them. McCain will clear the 50% hurdle.
Montana and North Dakota: These are not tossup states. How do I know? Look at the money being spent there. If they were really as close as the public polls say they are Barack Obama would be there. What these northern Great Plains states are instead is evidence that the public polls are broken this year. Bush won both states by double digits. So too will McCain.
Nevada: Usually reliably Republican, however the biggest boom town in the country, Las Vegas, is now in its biggest bust. Bush won 50.5% to 47.9% four years ago. Clark County will be ready to manufacture the votes necessary to secure an Obama victory. It won’t be necessary. Obama will outperform Kerry’s totals and win the Silver State by three points.
New Hampshire: John Kerry won here by a margin of 1.3%. But Kerry was from Massachusetts whose Boston media market blankets the southern third of the Granite State. Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties, the state’s two largest, went for Bush by just a few points four years ago. However, without a neighbor on the ticket, McCain’s margin in both of the state’s southern counties will be larger. Besides, if there is one word that describes the citizens of New England’s iconoclast state, it is “cantankerous” (but in a lovable way). McCain is cantankerous too. He always exceeds expectations in New Hampshire. Obama always underperforms there. And New Hampshire always surprises. Granite Staters love to lie to pollsters—it’s their way of telling the media what they think of them, and it announces that New Hampshirites know a little bit more about this whole presidential selection thing than most people–especially those upstart Iowans. McCain by two. When that is announced you will hear screams from off the set during CBS’ broadcast. Keith Olbermann will openly cry. All eyes—the dry ones at least—will then shift to Colorado and Pennsylvania, both of which Obama will need to win in order to prevail. For the first time Tuesday evening the tone of the news coverage will shift to, “Can Obama pull it out?”
New Mexico: With its Democratic governor, New Mexico is even more blue than it was four years ago when Kerry won here by only 6,000 votes, the smallest margin of any state in nation. Obama wins by five. But the real loser of the evening is Bill Richardson, who even though he delivered his state, committed the unpardonable crime of crossing the Clintons. Scandal will find him.
Ohio: Like Missouri, the Buckeye State almost always goes with the winner. It will again this time. Turnout in Butler, Clermont, and Warren Counties will overwhelm new registrations in the state’s urban areas—an unexpectedly high number of whom don’t show up to vote because ACORN simply made up names in Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Montgomery Counties. Every county east of Cincinnati and South of I-70 except for Athens goes for McCain–many by a margin of three or four to one. Keep your eyes on Mahoning County. Bush got only 37% there four years ago. If McCain clears that mark by five points or more it’s a signal that Ohioan Joe Wurzelbacher helped McCain make inroads with labor voters nationwide. That level of support in Youngstown indicates a McCain win in nearby Pennsylvania too. McCain takes Ohio by 50,000 votes. Clinton supporter Governor Ted Strickland is caught smiling during a phone call with Bill when he didn’t know he was on camera. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner’s head explodes because she realizes that without Obama in office to shield her, a federal investigation of ACORN is going to incriminate her.
Pennsylvania: In a year that is slightly more Democratic than 2004 when Pennsylvania went blue 50.9% to 48.4%, the outcome in the Keystone State should not be in doubt. It’s in doubt this year because Obama and his allies have done everything they can to lose this state. Obama will lose rural and small town Pennsylvania by huge margins. He will win Pittsburgh, and especially Philly, by large margins. Erie will go for Obama by the slimmest of margins—if at all—further indicating how poorly Obama performed with white middle class Rust Belt voters. Pennsylvania won’t be called until late. It won’t be decided until the courts have spoken. That’s not good news for Republicans if the state’s 21 electoral votes make the difference. (The Philadelphia machine plays dirty.) At daybreak the state is still a tossup with less than 10,000 votes separating the candidates. But the real winner is Governor Ed Rendell who spends every day from now until January 20th yelling “I told you so,”—first because he said that Democrats should have picked Hillary, and second because he warned Obama that he wasn’t spending enough time in his state. He was right both times.
Virginia: Lots of newly registered voters helps Obama, right? Not exactly. A large number of them are newly registered to vote in red counties. A lot of them are military voters in Tidewater and DC, who this year registered to vote in VA instead of their home states. They prefer McCain 3:1. Bush won the Commonwealth 53-45 in 2004. The very popular former governor Mark Warner, in an effort to confuse the voters that he is the same Warner as the retiring Republican one whose seat he seeks, is not identifying himself as a Democrat in his advertising this year. That should be a clue. McCain by five.
Wisconsin: What? Wisconsin a tossup state? Yes. John Kerry won by only 10,000 votes. The Badger State will end up being much closer than anyone suspects. Madison’s youth vote won’t turn out in expected numbers. Obama will underperform expectations in Milwaukee and Green Bay. Obama will pull it out, but when most of the networks report when its polls close that Wisconsin is too close to call, Obama’s supporters will feel like they’ve been slapped in the face by a cold wet musky (Wisconsin’s state fish). It will be the first indication to them that the exit polls they’ve been celebrating since midday are off. Way off. Obama by only three.
Nationwide: Going in to election day, Obama will be leading 47% to 44% with 7% undecided. McCain wins the undecided almost 5:2. Increased support from black voters in the three Ds (DC, Detroit, and the Deep South) along with gains in other reliably red states runs up Obama’s popular vote totals, but adds nothing to the electoral bottom line. The only states he turns in his favor are two very white ones (Iowa 2% black and Nevada 6% black), providing evidence against the charge of racism. But facts don’t get in the way of the story line that racism decided the race.
Final popular vote tally: Obama 49.2%, McCain 48.8%, Other 2%.
Electoral votes: Obama 244, McCain 273, Pennsylvania’s 21 TBD.
Wednesday the 5th won’t be pretty
תתפלאו. מקיין ינצח
YNET:
ברגע האחרון, בתחום הסגור של הקלפי, אמריקה תחזור לעצמה. היא לא אוהבת חריגים. היא לא אוהבת את מי שנראה לה
מתוק אבל זר
יורם קניוק
הכל יודעים שאובאמה מנצח בבחירות בארצות הברית. רק אני שייך למיעוט שחושב שזה לא יקרה, ומחר אולי אוכל את הכובע. אבל שום דבר חדש; תמיד הייתי מיעוט. אני אפילו מיעוט יהודי בתוך משפחתי.
מזה שנתיים אני סבור שמקיין ינצח. הוא ינצח כי הוא אמריקה. הוא אמריקה במובן העמוק של המילה. יש בו משהו מהפייטר, יש בו משהו מג'ון ווין, מאלן לד, הוא מעט ביישן, נראה כמעט דחוי, הוא גרי קופר היורה ב"צהרי היום". הוא חושב נכון אבל חי לא נכון. הוא בחר בשרה פיילין כי היא גיבורה של מערבון. היא אני אוקלי היורה תוך כדי שהיא מניקה את נכדה שנולד בחטא.
אובאמה הוא חצי שחור. אבל חוץ מזה הוא יפה מדי. כוכב מדי. הוא מין קנדי אבל בלי הרקורד של קנדי כלוחם אמיץ במלחמה. אובאמה לא יכול להיות גיבור אמריקני כי הוא יותר מדי בסדר. יותר מדי הגון. מדבר יפה. יודע איך לנאום: כמו גדולי הנואמים הפאשיסטים, אף כי כמובן אינו כזה, כי הוא נואם שיודע להלהיב.
מקיין לא יודע להלהיב. הוא מרדים, כמו רוב הנשיאים האמריקנים הגדולים. אובאמה רוצה דברים טובים לעמו, מה שהוא חושב שהעם שלו רוצה. אבל מקיין מציע מה שהוא חושב שהעם צריך.
לעם ישנן מגבלות; הוא אוהב רובים. הוא אוהב לצוד. כמו ג'ון וויין הוא נועז, פרא-אדם ונבון. המשבר הנוכחי בכלכלה ומעלליו של בוש כמעט הביאו לאובאמה ניצחון סוחף, אבל ברגע האחרון, בתחום הסגור של הקלפי, אמריקה תחזור לעצמה. היא לא אוהבת חריגים. היא לא אוהבת את מי שנראה לה מתוק אבל זר. היא לא בחרה בסטיבנסון החכם אבל בחרה דווקא באייזנהאוור כי הוא היה גנרל אף כי לא נועז, אבל ניצח במלחמה והיה איש פשוט. היה הנשיא גרוע אבל הבין את אמריקה.
אמריקה איננה מה שהניו-יורקים חושבים. היא פלמ"חניקית כבדת רגל, היא עצורה ולא נחמדה, היא באמת לא חושבת שלחיות ליד הגבול הרוסי באלסקה זה טוב, וחושבת שניו-יורק אינה יודעת מה זה להיות כמטחווי ירייה משטחה של רוסיה. אמריקה האמיתית היא דתית. שמרנית. נוצרית לעילא. זה היה והווה כוחה בנבכי האמונה התמימה. ואובאמה לא מספיק תמים. מקיין כן.
אמריקה מאמינה בכך שאתה צריך להרוויח את כל מה אתה רוצה אף כי לאחרים שלא עבדו כמוך או שלא התמזל מזלם כמזלך, לא יהיה. הם מאמינים בלותרניזם ובעיקר בקלוויניזם שקידשו את האושר העצמי מול אלוהים כעיקר. את החופש להיות מה שאתה רוצה, כל זמן שאתה קורא את התנ"ך כל בוקר. אמריקה מוכנה להיות הנדבנית הכי גדולה בתבל אבל היא רוצה שהנדבנות תהיה וולנטרית.
אין מדינה כמו אמריקה שבה עשירים תומכים כה הרבה בחינוך, במוסיקה, בתרבות, במדע ואין מדינה שממשלתה תורמת כה מעט לכל אלה. חולשה היא גם כוח. מקיין אולי לא ידע מי הוא ראש ממשלתה של ספרד אבל מעניין כמה מאלה שצחקו עליו יודעים מי הוא ראש ממשלת ירדן או מי ראש עיריית חדרה. כולם היו נגד מקיין ופיילין. כל המצחיקנים וכל האינטלקטואלים וכל ניו-יורק המהודרת, וכל הערים היקרות, כל הסלבס וכל הוליווד. אבל איך אמרו פעם: הם לא שווים מעברה אחת.
מבקשים דמות אב
בקצווי הערים חיים אנשים שרוצים נשיא שיהיה כמו אלוהים: שיהיה להם אבא נכון. אובאמה לא נראה כמו אב. הוא נראה כמו הבן שרוצה להיות אמן ואבא מתנגד כי אין באמנות כסף.
מעבר לניו יורק חיים מיליוני אנשים שאוהבים לצוד. שאינם יודעים הרבה אבל רוצים להתפלל ביום ראשון יחד עם חבריהם. אמריקה איננה האנטלקטואלים היהודים שלה, היא מכירה בזכותם של יהודיה להיות חלק ממנה, אבל לא יאפשרו להם לקבוע את האתוס שלה. הם בעד ישראל כשהיא חזקה. הם רוצים להיות צודקים אבל אוהבים כוח ואומץ.
אמריקה היא צומת של מערבון ומחזה מוסיקלי. היא אוהבת גיבורים. אוהבת אנשים בודדים. אוהבת אנשי מצפון של עצמם. היא אוהבת שהטובים ינצחו אבל לא לפני שיהרגו את הרעים. כמעט כל המחזות המוזיקלים בנויים סביב האגדה שהטוב ינצח. שילדה מוכרת פרחים תהיה גבירה. שאפשר לנצח הכל בעזרת בינה אישית. אמריקה היא רפובליקה, ולכן הדמוקטיה שלה אינה מה שאנחנו מכירים. היא יותר כמו כוכב נולד שעם אס.אמ.אסים אפשר לבחור את הזמרת הכי טובה.
יורם קניוק
הכל יודעים שאובאמה מנצח בבחירות בארצות הברית. רק אני שייך למיעוט שחושב שזה לא יקרה, ומחר אולי אוכל את הכובע. אבל שום דבר חדש; תמיד הייתי מיעוט. אני אפילו מיעוט יהודי בתוך משפחתי.
מזה שנתיים אני סבור שמקיין ינצח. הוא ינצח כי הוא אמריקה. הוא אמריקה במובן העמוק של המילה. יש בו משהו מהפייטר, יש בו משהו מג'ון ווין, מאלן לד, הוא מעט ביישן, נראה כמעט דחוי, הוא גרי קופר היורה ב"צהרי היום". הוא חושב נכון אבל חי לא נכון. הוא בחר בשרה פיילין כי היא גיבורה של מערבון. היא אני אוקלי היורה תוך כדי שהיא מניקה את נכדה שנולד בחטא.
אובאמה הוא חצי שחור. אבל חוץ מזה הוא יפה מדי. כוכב מדי. הוא מין קנדי אבל בלי הרקורד של קנדי כלוחם אמיץ במלחמה. אובאמה לא יכול להיות גיבור אמריקני כי הוא יותר מדי בסדר. יותר מדי הגון. מדבר יפה. יודע איך לנאום: כמו גדולי הנואמים הפאשיסטים, אף כי כמובן אינו כזה, כי הוא נואם שיודע להלהיב.
מקיין לא יודע להלהיב. הוא מרדים, כמו רוב הנשיאים האמריקנים הגדולים. אובאמה רוצה דברים טובים לעמו, מה שהוא חושב שהעם שלו רוצה. אבל מקיין מציע מה שהוא חושב שהעם צריך.
לעם ישנן מגבלות; הוא אוהב רובים. הוא אוהב לצוד. כמו ג'ון וויין הוא נועז, פרא-אדם ונבון. המשבר הנוכחי בכלכלה ומעלליו של בוש כמעט הביאו לאובאמה ניצחון סוחף, אבל ברגע האחרון, בתחום הסגור של הקלפי, אמריקה תחזור לעצמה. היא לא אוהבת חריגים. היא לא אוהבת את מי שנראה לה מתוק אבל זר. היא לא בחרה בסטיבנסון החכם אבל בחרה דווקא באייזנהאוור כי הוא היה גנרל אף כי לא נועז, אבל ניצח במלחמה והיה איש פשוט. היה הנשיא גרוע אבל הבין את אמריקה.
אמריקה איננה מה שהניו-יורקים חושבים. היא פלמ"חניקית כבדת רגל, היא עצורה ולא נחמדה, היא באמת לא חושבת שלחיות ליד הגבול הרוסי באלסקה זה טוב, וחושבת שניו-יורק אינה יודעת מה זה להיות כמטחווי ירייה משטחה של רוסיה. אמריקה האמיתית היא דתית. שמרנית. נוצרית לעילא. זה היה והווה כוחה בנבכי האמונה התמימה. ואובאמה לא מספיק תמים. מקיין כן.
אמריקה מאמינה בכך שאתה צריך להרוויח את כל מה אתה רוצה אף כי לאחרים שלא עבדו כמוך או שלא התמזל מזלם כמזלך, לא יהיה. הם מאמינים בלותרניזם ובעיקר בקלוויניזם שקידשו את האושר העצמי מול אלוהים כעיקר. את החופש להיות מה שאתה רוצה, כל זמן שאתה קורא את התנ"ך כל בוקר. אמריקה מוכנה להיות הנדבנית הכי גדולה בתבל אבל היא רוצה שהנדבנות תהיה וולנטרית.
אין מדינה כמו אמריקה שבה עשירים תומכים כה הרבה בחינוך, במוסיקה, בתרבות, במדע ואין מדינה שממשלתה תורמת כה מעט לכל אלה. חולשה היא גם כוח. מקיין אולי לא ידע מי הוא ראש ממשלתה של ספרד אבל מעניין כמה מאלה שצחקו עליו יודעים מי הוא ראש ממשלת ירדן או מי ראש עיריית חדרה. כולם היו נגד מקיין ופיילין. כל המצחיקנים וכל האינטלקטואלים וכל ניו-יורק המהודרת, וכל הערים היקרות, כל הסלבס וכל הוליווד. אבל איך אמרו פעם: הם לא שווים מעברה אחת.
מבקשים דמות אב
בקצווי הערים חיים אנשים שרוצים נשיא שיהיה כמו אלוהים: שיהיה להם אבא נכון. אובאמה לא נראה כמו אב. הוא נראה כמו הבן שרוצה להיות אמן ואבא מתנגד כי אין באמנות כסף.
מעבר לניו יורק חיים מיליוני אנשים שאוהבים לצוד. שאינם יודעים הרבה אבל רוצים להתפלל ביום ראשון יחד עם חבריהם. אמריקה איננה האנטלקטואלים היהודים שלה, היא מכירה בזכותם של יהודיה להיות חלק ממנה, אבל לא יאפשרו להם לקבוע את האתוס שלה. הם בעד ישראל כשהיא חזקה. הם רוצים להיות צודקים אבל אוהבים כוח ואומץ.
אמריקה היא צומת של מערבון ומחזה מוסיקלי. היא אוהבת גיבורים. אוהבת אנשים בודדים. אוהבת אנשי מצפון של עצמם. היא אוהבת שהטובים ינצחו אבל לא לפני שיהרגו את הרעים. כמעט כל המחזות המוזיקלים בנויים סביב האגדה שהטוב ינצח. שילדה מוכרת פרחים תהיה גבירה. שאפשר לנצח הכל בעזרת בינה אישית. אמריקה היא רפובליקה, ולכן הדמוקטיה שלה אינה מה שאנחנו מכירים. היא יותר כמו כוכב נולד שעם אס.אמ.אסים אפשר לבחור את הזמרת הכי טובה.
BREAKING........ MCCAIN IS IN TO A HISTORICAL VICTORY
FOX NEWS POLL: ''Obama's lead among those who say they have already voted has almost disappeared. He has a 1-point edge -- just 48-47 percent -- in this latest poll, down from a 52-43 percent lead previously''.
PEW RESEARCH: ''among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama''.
PEW RESEARCH: ''among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama''.
LEAKED: OBAMA'S CONCESSION SPEECH
“I spoke with Sen. McCain on the phone moments ago, and I offered him and Gov. Palin our congratulations on their victory.”
IF UR STIL CONCERNED WATCH THIS SPEECH!!!! CLICK HERE
http://cbs4.com/campaign08/McCain.campaign08.miami.2.854861.html
BILL KRISTOL:Hey Liberals, Don’t Worry
But what if John McCain pulls off an upset?
I’m worried about my compatriots on the left. Michael Powell reports in Saturday’s New York Times that even the possibility of an Obama defeat has driven many liberals into in a state of high anxiety. And then there’s a young woman from Denver who “told her boyfriend that their love life was on hold while she sweated out Mr. Obama’s performance in Colorado.” Well, what if Obama loses Colorado? Or the presidency? As a compassionate conservative, I’m concerned about the well-being of that boyfriend — and of others who might be similarly situated. I feel an obligation to help.
So let me tell liberals why they should be cheerful if McCain happens to win.
1. It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.
2. It would be a defeat for the establishment. Obama’s most recent high-profile Republican endorser was D.C. insider Kenneth Duberstein. Liberals should be on the side of hard-working plumbers, not big-shot lobbyists — oops, sorry, big-shot strategic advisers and consultants. And Duberstein said that Colin Powell’s endorsement was “the Good Housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama.” Doesn’t that comment embody everything that liberals (and many conservatives, including me) find creepy about smug establishment back-scratching and gatekeeping in America?
3. It would be a victory for the future. With President Bush’s approval rating at about 25 percent, a McCain triumph would mean Americans were making a judgment on two future alternatives, not merely voting on the basis of their resentment at the past performance of George W. Bush. It would mean voters were looking ahead, not back. Liberals should therefore welcome a McCain win as a triumph of hope over fear, of the future over the past.
4. It would be a victory for freedom. Obama supporter Leon Wieseltier of The New Republic writes that “tyrants and génocidaires would sleep less soundly during a McCain presidency.” Liberals should be opposed to tyranny and genocide. Wieseltier also acknowledges that McCain “was splendidly right about the surge, which is not a small thing; and the grudging way Obama treats the reversal in Iraq, when he treats it at all, is disgraceful.” The surge advanced not only our national security but the cause of freedom in the world. Liberals should be votaries of freedom.
5. A McCain victory would be good for liberalism. Look at recent history. Jimmy Carter and a Democratic Congress begat Ronald Reagan. Bill Clinton and a Democratic Congress produced Newt Gingrich. Who knows what would follow a President Obama and a Democratic Congress? Here’s one possibility: President Sarah Palin.
So liberals shouldn’t be too upset at the idea of McCain winning. Could it happen?
It’s possible. What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama’s support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.
I’m worried about my compatriots on the left. Michael Powell reports in Saturday’s New York Times that even the possibility of an Obama defeat has driven many liberals into in a state of high anxiety. And then there’s a young woman from Denver who “told her boyfriend that their love life was on hold while she sweated out Mr. Obama’s performance in Colorado.” Well, what if Obama loses Colorado? Or the presidency? As a compassionate conservative, I’m concerned about the well-being of that boyfriend — and of others who might be similarly situated. I feel an obligation to help.
So let me tell liberals why they should be cheerful if McCain happens to win.
1. It would be a victory for an underdog. Liberals are supposed to like underdogs. McCain is a lonely guy standing up against an unprecedentedly well-financed, superorganized, ExxonMobil-like Obama juggernaut. A McCain upset victory would be a classic liberal happy ending.
2. It would be a defeat for the establishment. Obama’s most recent high-profile Republican endorser was D.C. insider Kenneth Duberstein. Liberals should be on the side of hard-working plumbers, not big-shot lobbyists — oops, sorry, big-shot strategic advisers and consultants. And Duberstein said that Colin Powell’s endorsement was “the Good Housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama.” Doesn’t that comment embody everything that liberals (and many conservatives, including me) find creepy about smug establishment back-scratching and gatekeeping in America?
3. It would be a victory for the future. With President Bush’s approval rating at about 25 percent, a McCain triumph would mean Americans were making a judgment on two future alternatives, not merely voting on the basis of their resentment at the past performance of George W. Bush. It would mean voters were looking ahead, not back. Liberals should therefore welcome a McCain win as a triumph of hope over fear, of the future over the past.
4. It would be a victory for freedom. Obama supporter Leon Wieseltier of The New Republic writes that “tyrants and génocidaires would sleep less soundly during a McCain presidency.” Liberals should be opposed to tyranny and genocide. Wieseltier also acknowledges that McCain “was splendidly right about the surge, which is not a small thing; and the grudging way Obama treats the reversal in Iraq, when he treats it at all, is disgraceful.” The surge advanced not only our national security but the cause of freedom in the world. Liberals should be votaries of freedom.
5. A McCain victory would be good for liberalism. Look at recent history. Jimmy Carter and a Democratic Congress begat Ronald Reagan. Bill Clinton and a Democratic Congress produced Newt Gingrich. Who knows what would follow a President Obama and a Democratic Congress? Here’s one possibility: President Sarah Palin.
So liberals shouldn’t be too upset at the idea of McCain winning. Could it happen?
It’s possible. What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama’s support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.
McCain Campaign Manager Offers Winning Scenario
John McCain’s campaign manager laid out a come-from-behind-victory scenario late Sunday evening as the campaign prepared for a seven-state, 18-hour cross-country swing.
Although a number of national polls, including the most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, give Barack Obama a sizable lead, Rick Davis, a longtime McCain confidante who carried him through the primaries, told reporters that the campaign has many routes on the electoral map to the magic number of 270 electoral college votes.
Davis dismissed scenarios that rested on winning a specific state, like Virginia or Florida, and said that recent polling in the West, which shows Obama’s double-digit leads shrinking, has given the campaign considerable hope. “If we can win Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, all of the sudden we’ve got a whole new pathway to victory,” Davis said. “Those weren’t even on the list three weeks ago,” he said.
The linchpin will be undecided voters, which the McCain campaign believes are largely white, lean towards the middle of the political spectrum and live outside of urban areas—from the suburbs to the rural parts of the state.
“If Barack Obama hasn’t closed the deal with them after, you know, two years in the campaign and a year as the nominee of their party, maybe they’re holding out for a good reason,” Davis said.
The McCain campaign’s pollster, Bill McInturff, said a record voter turnout of 130 million people is possible. If turnout drops below that level, it will likely be undecideds who stayed home, Davis said. “But if it goes over, you’ll know that they came out and there’s a good chance for us to win.”
Although a number of national polls, including the most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, give Barack Obama a sizable lead, Rick Davis, a longtime McCain confidante who carried him through the primaries, told reporters that the campaign has many routes on the electoral map to the magic number of 270 electoral college votes.
Davis dismissed scenarios that rested on winning a specific state, like Virginia or Florida, and said that recent polling in the West, which shows Obama’s double-digit leads shrinking, has given the campaign considerable hope. “If we can win Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, all of the sudden we’ve got a whole new pathway to victory,” Davis said. “Those weren’t even on the list three weeks ago,” he said.
The linchpin will be undecided voters, which the McCain campaign believes are largely white, lean towards the middle of the political spectrum and live outside of urban areas—from the suburbs to the rural parts of the state.
“If Barack Obama hasn’t closed the deal with them after, you know, two years in the campaign and a year as the nominee of their party, maybe they’re holding out for a good reason,” Davis said.
The McCain campaign’s pollster, Bill McInturff, said a record voter turnout of 130 million people is possible. If turnout drops below that level, it will likely be undecideds who stayed home, Davis said. “But if it goes over, you’ll know that they came out and there’s a good chance for us to win.”
Another Bright Ray of Hope -
BIGLIZARD:
While Barack H. Obama pulled into a bigger (but still catchable) lead in most of the national polls, John S. McCain has suddenly started improving in the more critical state polling, bizarrely enough. Ohio is now back to being a toss-up state, with a new Mason-Dixon poll showing McCain leading for the first time in a long, long time, after nearly a week of the average leaning towards Obama.
Whoops, correction: The national polls did not tick up for Obama today; I spoke too soon. When the rest of today's tracking polls came in, Obama's already small lead shrunk 0.7% down to 5.3; this is based upon Rasmussen (holding steady), Gallup traditional (Obama drops 2 points from yesterday), Zogby (Obama up one tick), and IBD (Obama down two ticks). We're still waiting for the newest release of the Battleground poll.
One other interesting point on the national polling: Rasmussen has a ludicrous (in my opinion) turnout model where Democrats will outperform Republicans by 6.5%! In 2004, the gap was about 1.5% on election day; in 2006, it was 6.1%. But there are two related points to note:
First, what Rasmussen is measuring is not turnout but rather the party affiliation claimed by respondents in a separate poll of adults. In other words, at best, Rasmussen is measuring total party registration (self reported) -- not what percent of each party will turn out. Thus, when they weight their polling on that basis, they're making the stealth turnout assumption that all the first-time registered Democrats and youth Democrats and such are just as likely to vote as older Democrats or Republicans who have voted every election for many years, that 6.5% more registered Democrats directly translates into 6.5% more votes for Obama. This is a questionable projection, to say the least.
Second and even more intriguing... Rasmussen predicts a 6.5% Democratic advantage in turnout and adjusts its polling accordingly; but even so, they have Obama up by only 5%. Aren't they tacitly admitting that McCain will do significantly better in winning over Democrats than Obama will in turning Republicans to the dark side?
Now let's get back to the state polls released today...
Virginia is on the bring of becoming a toss-up (it's been leaning Obama for a while), and would already be except for one CNN poll; Nevada, while still technically leaning Obama, would also be a toss-up, except for one single-day poll I've never heard of -- Suffolk -- from a week ago.
Colorado is achingly close to being a toss-up as well; the most recent Denver Post/Mason-Dixon poll has Obama ahead by only 5 points, and Obama's overall lead is only 5.5.
If we change those states to toss-ups on the RCP electoral map, Obama drops below the magic 270 for the first time in a couple of weeks -- a stunning improvement for McCain. If the most recent polls are accurate, that means that John McCain can now win the election by only winning enough of those toss-ups, without having to take a single state where Obama has a significant lead right now.
But that's not all... in Pennsylvania, where John McCain and Sarah Palin have been campaigning heavily (against the advice of well-meaning Democrats, who have been advising McCain that he can't win there, so he should pull out), there are five polls in the RCP average; one of them, Marist, is clearly an outlier (Obama +14, twice as big a lead as the next nearest poll). Take Marist out of the mix, and Obama only leads by 5.3% in Pennsylvania -- making that state as close as makes no difference to a toss-up as well.
If we make Pennsylvania a toss-up, that leaves Barack Obama at only 243 in the electoral count -- rather, 242, since McCain is very likely to win that one electoral vote in Maine decided by a Republican-leaning district.
I have always assumed that McCain will win every state that is already a for-real toss-up in the RCP average right now, since he's a closer... and in the primaries, Obama underperformed his polling in nearly all the later races against Hillary Clinton. Thus I give McCain Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona. Those are all states that went to George W. Bush in both the 2000 and the 2004 elections; McCain has improved his standing in each of those states recently, so he has momentum; and in fact, McCain currently either leads by more than 1% or is tied (less than 1% lead for one or the other nominee) in all of those states except Florida, where he trails by only 3.3 points, within the margin of error (I don't count the addlepated Los Angeles Times poll).
Everything then comes down to four states: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All except the last are states George W. Bush won twice. Obama must win two of them -- and the correct two -- to take the election away from McCain; he has to win one of either Ohio or Pennsylvania, and then he must win Colorado. If McCain wins both Ohio and Pennsylvania, or if he wins one of them plus Colorado, then he wins the race, 270 to 268.
I suspect McCain is going to win Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada, giving him a narrow but comfortable victory of 275 to 263... but he might sweep all four on a reasonably good night, making it a more convincing 296 to 242.
While Barack H. Obama pulled into a bigger (but still catchable) lead in most of the national polls, John S. McCain has suddenly started improving in the more critical state polling, bizarrely enough. Ohio is now back to being a toss-up state, with a new Mason-Dixon poll showing McCain leading for the first time in a long, long time, after nearly a week of the average leaning towards Obama.
Whoops, correction: The national polls did not tick up for Obama today; I spoke too soon. When the rest of today's tracking polls came in, Obama's already small lead shrunk 0.7% down to 5.3; this is based upon Rasmussen (holding steady), Gallup traditional (Obama drops 2 points from yesterday), Zogby (Obama up one tick), and IBD (Obama down two ticks). We're still waiting for the newest release of the Battleground poll.
One other interesting point on the national polling: Rasmussen has a ludicrous (in my opinion) turnout model where Democrats will outperform Republicans by 6.5%! In 2004, the gap was about 1.5% on election day; in 2006, it was 6.1%. But there are two related points to note:
First, what Rasmussen is measuring is not turnout but rather the party affiliation claimed by respondents in a separate poll of adults. In other words, at best, Rasmussen is measuring total party registration (self reported) -- not what percent of each party will turn out. Thus, when they weight their polling on that basis, they're making the stealth turnout assumption that all the first-time registered Democrats and youth Democrats and such are just as likely to vote as older Democrats or Republicans who have voted every election for many years, that 6.5% more registered Democrats directly translates into 6.5% more votes for Obama. This is a questionable projection, to say the least.
Second and even more intriguing... Rasmussen predicts a 6.5% Democratic advantage in turnout and adjusts its polling accordingly; but even so, they have Obama up by only 5%. Aren't they tacitly admitting that McCain will do significantly better in winning over Democrats than Obama will in turning Republicans to the dark side?
Now let's get back to the state polls released today...
Virginia is on the bring of becoming a toss-up (it's been leaning Obama for a while), and would already be except for one CNN poll; Nevada, while still technically leaning Obama, would also be a toss-up, except for one single-day poll I've never heard of -- Suffolk -- from a week ago.
Colorado is achingly close to being a toss-up as well; the most recent Denver Post/Mason-Dixon poll has Obama ahead by only 5 points, and Obama's overall lead is only 5.5.
If we change those states to toss-ups on the RCP electoral map, Obama drops below the magic 270 for the first time in a couple of weeks -- a stunning improvement for McCain. If the most recent polls are accurate, that means that John McCain can now win the election by only winning enough of those toss-ups, without having to take a single state where Obama has a significant lead right now.
But that's not all... in Pennsylvania, where John McCain and Sarah Palin have been campaigning heavily (against the advice of well-meaning Democrats, who have been advising McCain that he can't win there, so he should pull out), there are five polls in the RCP average; one of them, Marist, is clearly an outlier (Obama +14, twice as big a lead as the next nearest poll). Take Marist out of the mix, and Obama only leads by 5.3% in Pennsylvania -- making that state as close as makes no difference to a toss-up as well.
If we make Pennsylvania a toss-up, that leaves Barack Obama at only 243 in the electoral count -- rather, 242, since McCain is very likely to win that one electoral vote in Maine decided by a Republican-leaning district.
I have always assumed that McCain will win every state that is already a for-real toss-up in the RCP average right now, since he's a closer... and in the primaries, Obama underperformed his polling in nearly all the later races against Hillary Clinton. Thus I give McCain Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona. Those are all states that went to George W. Bush in both the 2000 and the 2004 elections; McCain has improved his standing in each of those states recently, so he has momentum; and in fact, McCain currently either leads by more than 1% or is tied (less than 1% lead for one or the other nominee) in all of those states except Florida, where he trails by only 3.3 points, within the margin of error (I don't count the addlepated Los Angeles Times poll).
Everything then comes down to four states: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All except the last are states George W. Bush won twice. Obama must win two of them -- and the correct two -- to take the election away from McCain; he has to win one of either Ohio or Pennsylvania, and then he must win Colorado. If McCain wins both Ohio and Pennsylvania, or if he wins one of them plus Colorado, then he wins the race, 270 to 268.
I suspect McCain is going to win Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada, giving him a narrow but comfortable victory of 275 to 263... but he might sweep all four on a reasonably good night, making it a more convincing 296 to 242.
YAHOO HEADLINE:Breaking down the numbers
''Barack Obama is polling ahead, but John McCain has a bigger chance than it first appears''
VICTORY WE CAN BELIEVE IN....
www.ezralevant.com
...... I'd like to make a prediction.
I predict that John McCain will win the U.S. presidential election next week.
I won't give you a detailed analysis, for it's mainly a hunch -- a hunch and a hope. But I still think he's going to win......
...... I'd like to make a prediction.
I predict that John McCain will win the U.S. presidential election next week.
I won't give you a detailed analysis, for it's mainly a hunch -- a hunch and a hope. But I still think he's going to win......
MAC IS BACK IN FL
McCain just ended a midnight rally in Miami Florida, where a rousing , enthusiastic, upbeat , hopeful, crowd gave him the warmest welcome since the start of the campaign, and if you think he gives up, he continued speaking over the crowd with a happy, hopeful, speech, promising Victory, and continue fighting as he did all his life.
If this is the Mood in the Republican party, then i am more then confident ,that we are in to win this Election, and clear our path to Victory, and bring hope and change to the American people.
LET YOUR VOICES BE HEARD, GO OUT TO VOTE, VOLUNTEER, MAKE PHONE CALLS, AND BE THE SEED THAT PLANTED HOPE FOR THE FUTURE GENERATION TO COME , IN THE COUNTRY WE SO LOVE.
If this is the Mood in the Republican party, then i am more then confident ,that we are in to win this Election, and clear our path to Victory, and bring hope and change to the American people.
LET YOUR VOICES BE HEARD, GO OUT TO VOTE, VOLUNTEER, MAKE PHONE CALLS, AND BE THE SEED THAT PLANTED HOPE FOR THE FUTURE GENERATION TO COME , IN THE COUNTRY WE SO LOVE.
Political Expert Paul N. Marston Puts His Reputation on the Line; McCain Wins!!!
THE MCCAIN-PALIN LANDSLIDE
Your first thought is that I am drunk on Kool-Aid when you see this title. I am going to show you why I am so sure about this prediction. Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy. That includes get elected to office to prove I was right about winning an election. See my biography for details. I have to be very sure to risk a 45 year reputation so remember that you read it here first.The next question is how could I possibly be so sure when the polls are predicting the exact opposite? Because I know the polls are wrong since they are not properly taking into account the P.U.M.A. Factor. I have explained previously that the mere fact that the polls violently disagree with each other is proof of something seriously amiss with the polling models. See my article on The P.U.M.A. Factor. On November 1st, I posted an article entitled How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor?That article pointed out that, at the time I wrote it, it required only a total of 493,636 PUMA voters in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to produce a tie in the electoral votes. Add a mere 35,935 more in Nevada and McCain-Palin wins. At the time, I was almost ready to bet the ranch that there were 529,571 PUMA voters in those six states, but I waited another 24 hours to make sure. Now the trend is so clear that it is obvious to me that a McCain-Palin landslide is in the works. It is amazing how few people in politics never apply some fairly simple mathematics to see what is going to happen in the next election.
READ MORE: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=94&Itemid=118
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 42 electoral votes
Your first thought is that I am drunk on Kool-Aid when you see this title. I am going to show you why I am so sure about this prediction. Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy. That includes get elected to office to prove I was right about winning an election. See my biography for details. I have to be very sure to risk a 45 year reputation so remember that you read it here first.The next question is how could I possibly be so sure when the polls are predicting the exact opposite? Because I know the polls are wrong since they are not properly taking into account the P.U.M.A. Factor. I have explained previously that the mere fact that the polls violently disagree with each other is proof of something seriously amiss with the polling models. See my article on The P.U.M.A. Factor. On November 1st, I posted an article entitled How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor?That article pointed out that, at the time I wrote it, it required only a total of 493,636 PUMA voters in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to produce a tie in the electoral votes. Add a mere 35,935 more in Nevada and McCain-Palin wins. At the time, I was almost ready to bet the ranch that there were 529,571 PUMA voters in those six states, but I waited another 24 hours to make sure. Now the trend is so clear that it is obvious to me that a McCain-Palin landslide is in the works. It is amazing how few people in politics never apply some fairly simple mathematics to see what is going to happen in the next election.
READ MORE: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=94&Itemid=118
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 42 electoral votes
SURVEYUSA: MINNESOTA A TOSS UP (M +3)
60 hours until votes are counted in Minnesota, Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain is back inside the margin of sampling error, according to SurveyUSA's final look at one of 2008's most interesting states. Obama 49%, McCain 46%, in interviewing underwritten by KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV Duluth and KAAL-TV Rochester, 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Obama led by 6 two weeks ago, now by 3.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
HOW MCCAIN CAN PULL OUT A EV WIN
Okay lets revisit the DelBov curve and examine the Popular vote lead for Obama
CA,HI, IL,MD,DE,NJ.NY,CT,RI,MA,VT, DC (1/3 popular vote) or about 45,000,000 -20% vote margin for Obama is 9,000,000 votes
McCain states of AK, AZ, MT, ID, UT, WY, ND, SD, KS, NB, OK, TX, LA, AR, WV, KY, TN, MS, AL AND SC (1/4 of popular vote or 32,000,000) McCain looks to win these states by perhaps 4,000,000
Then there is obama’s likely and states where McCain has given up (WA, OR, MN and MI) Perhaps 12 million votes and I suspect if a 12 % margin for Obama or 1.5 million
Okay here’s a primer on DelBov curve. The blue states are becoming bluer and the red states a little pink and the 4 states where McCain has more or less pulled out will turn bluer. Based on my numbers here Obama is 6.5 million votes ahead based on 135 million turnout.
Now as to the battleground states of NH, ME, NV, NM, CO, Iowa, WI, IN, MO, GA. FL, NC, VA, OH and PA. They represent about 1/3 of the popular vote. I would be shocked if that went to anybody by more then a million votes. Lets say McCain runs the table and gets a million vote lead. Obama still wins the popular vote by 5.5 million or 4%. Yet McCain can win NV, CO, GA, FL, VA, NC, OH and IN and win the ECV by 274 to 264.
I say to my stat types. What’s the popular vote going to do? Is CA, IL, NY and CT really +20 for Obama. Note that as I have MI, WA and OR have really gone Blue as McCain just had to write them off. Maybe MN and WI have gone too? I have hope for WI, but not much.
I look at that Fox poll at +3, Ras at +5, IBD at +2 Obama and I see a real long night for Obama, but a shocking win for McCain. (http://www.hedgehogreport.com/)
CA,HI, IL,MD,DE,NJ.NY,CT,RI,MA,VT, DC (1/3 popular vote) or about 45,000,000 -20% vote margin for Obama is 9,000,000 votes
McCain states of AK, AZ, MT, ID, UT, WY, ND, SD, KS, NB, OK, TX, LA, AR, WV, KY, TN, MS, AL AND SC (1/4 of popular vote or 32,000,000) McCain looks to win these states by perhaps 4,000,000
Then there is obama’s likely and states where McCain has given up (WA, OR, MN and MI) Perhaps 12 million votes and I suspect if a 12 % margin for Obama or 1.5 million
Okay here’s a primer on DelBov curve. The blue states are becoming bluer and the red states a little pink and the 4 states where McCain has more or less pulled out will turn bluer. Based on my numbers here Obama is 6.5 million votes ahead based on 135 million turnout.
Now as to the battleground states of NH, ME, NV, NM, CO, Iowa, WI, IN, MO, GA. FL, NC, VA, OH and PA. They represent about 1/3 of the popular vote. I would be shocked if that went to anybody by more then a million votes. Lets say McCain runs the table and gets a million vote lead. Obama still wins the popular vote by 5.5 million or 4%. Yet McCain can win NV, CO, GA, FL, VA, NC, OH and IN and win the ECV by 274 to 264.
I say to my stat types. What’s the popular vote going to do? Is CA, IL, NY and CT really +20 for Obama. Note that as I have MI, WA and OR have really gone Blue as McCain just had to write them off. Maybe MN and WI have gone too? I have hope for WI, but not much.
I look at that Fox poll at +3, Ras at +5, IBD at +2 Obama and I see a real long night for Obama, but a shocking win for McCain. (http://www.hedgehogreport.com/)
Obama can win the popular vote by 10 and still lose the election
freerepublic:
The popular vote is irrelevent. It's unlikely McCain will win the popular vote.
Obama will likely win California and New York by 25 or 30 points or more.
And black turnout in the South will reduce McCain's margins to single digits.
But who cares?
Whether you win a state by 1% or 20%, a win is a win is a win in the electoral college.
All McCain has to do is hold the Bush states and steal Pennsylvania. I believe whoever wins PA will win the election. The west is hard because of the growth in the hispanic population and liberal California refugees. So while I'm still hoping to eke out wins in Nevada and Colorado I am not counting on them.
Let me tell you, I've seen the internals of the PA polls having Obama leading by 7, 8 or more. They are complete and utter BS. They have Obama winning SW Pennsylvania and Northeast PA by 10 points. Hillary won many of those counties 3:1. These are socially conservative voters. These are older voters. They are the salt of the earth people that Obama said clung to their religion and guns. They don't like radical change. They will not vote for B. Obama who spent 20 years in Wright's church of hate. .
If you look at the last Mason Dixon poll that had Obama with a 4 point lead 47-43 with 10% undecided, the vast majority of whom were white and rural in SW and NE PA, this is very, very, very do-able.
Seriously, if you are still undecided after watching Obama carpet bomb the airwaves outspending McCain 4:1, you aren't going to vote for him no matter what. Obama outspent Hillary 4:1 and still lost by 10 points.
McCain will win PA and with it the White House. Do not get discouraged. Get out the vote
The popular vote is irrelevent. It's unlikely McCain will win the popular vote.
Obama will likely win California and New York by 25 or 30 points or more.
And black turnout in the South will reduce McCain's margins to single digits.
But who cares?
Whether you win a state by 1% or 20%, a win is a win is a win in the electoral college.
All McCain has to do is hold the Bush states and steal Pennsylvania. I believe whoever wins PA will win the election. The west is hard because of the growth in the hispanic population and liberal California refugees. So while I'm still hoping to eke out wins in Nevada and Colorado I am not counting on them.
Let me tell you, I've seen the internals of the PA polls having Obama leading by 7, 8 or more. They are complete and utter BS. They have Obama winning SW Pennsylvania and Northeast PA by 10 points. Hillary won many of those counties 3:1. These are socially conservative voters. These are older voters. They are the salt of the earth people that Obama said clung to their religion and guns. They don't like radical change. They will not vote for B. Obama who spent 20 years in Wright's church of hate. .
If you look at the last Mason Dixon poll that had Obama with a 4 point lead 47-43 with 10% undecided, the vast majority of whom were white and rural in SW and NE PA, this is very, very, very do-able.
Seriously, if you are still undecided after watching Obama carpet bomb the airwaves outspending McCain 4:1, you aren't going to vote for him no matter what. Obama outspent Hillary 4:1 and still lost by 10 points.
McCain will win PA and with it the White House. Do not get discouraged. Get out the vote
GALLUP BS FINAL POLL: OBAMA 55, MCCAIN 44
The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain
In the final poll, 38% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats, 34% as independents and 26% as Republicans. Among likely voters, the figures are 39%, 31% and 29%, respectively.
In the final poll, 38% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats, 34% as independents and 26% as Republicans. Among likely voters, the figures are 39%, 31% and 29%, respectively.
McCain is Ahead by 1 Point Among Likely Voters on Election day
''....More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.” (pew)
Note: Pew Research over samples Dems & independents. and also shows Obama leading independents 45-39 while other polls show Mccain & Obama breaking even among Independents.
Note: Pew Research over samples Dems & independents. and also shows Obama leading independents 45-39 while other polls show Mccain & Obama breaking even among Independents.
New Pew Poll: 052%, M46% [From 053%, M38% less than one week ago]
MCCAIN GAINS IN THIS POLL 9 POINTS LESS THEN A WEEK
Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days McCain Narrows Gap
Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42%for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.
Pew’s final survey indicates that the remaining undecided vote breaks slightly in McCain’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Obama holds a 52% to 46% advantage, with 1% each going to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr.
Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days McCain Narrows Gap
Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42%for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.
Pew’s final survey indicates that the remaining undecided vote breaks slightly in McCain’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Obama holds a 52% to 46% advantage, with 1% each going to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr.
LOL!!!!Fox News Network given 6 hours Ultimatum by API: Air the Michelle Obama tape or else face a legal battle for a breach of contract
API chose Fox News Network as a partner in Michelle Obama tapes’ deal, due to the advise received from all the readers who informed API that the News outlet was one we could trust to air the tape unedited.
Now that the Network has not done as agreed on the 28th of last month, API remains with only one choice in order to force the issue to be resolved immediately. The choice API has now chosen is to give an ultimatum to Fox News Network and hope the situation will be resolved in a few hours to come.
Today afternoon, API took a bold step to give Fox News Network a six hours ultimatum to decide on an immediate release of the tape - “that the tape be aired as soon as possible, latest tomorrow the 3rd of November if it has to have any value in connection with the US Presidential elections taking place on Tuesday the 4th of this month
Now that the Network has not done as agreed on the 28th of last month, API remains with only one choice in order to force the issue to be resolved immediately. The choice API has now chosen is to give an ultimatum to Fox News Network and hope the situation will be resolved in a few hours to come.
Today afternoon, API took a bold step to give Fox News Network a six hours ultimatum to decide on an immediate release of the tape - “that the tape be aired as soon as possible, latest tomorrow the 3rd of November if it has to have any value in connection with the US Presidential elections taking place on Tuesday the 4th of this month
Adviser: "McCain to win every red state...probably win Pennsylvania and Iowa."
On a brief jump flight from Philadelphia to Scranton, McCain adviser Charlie Black and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback came back to talk up the campaign's conviction that the glass if half full. "Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa," Brownback said. "Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa."
He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black.
"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa." Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state.
He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black.
"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa." Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state.
Rasmussen:Beware of Exit Polls
Democrats still ache over Election Day 2004 when exit polling showed John Kerry about to become the next president of the United States. The only problem was that the actual vote count put George W. Bush back in the White House for four more years.
And that came just four years after the disastrous exit polling in 2000, when the race on Election Night was called first for Al Gore, then for Bush and then at 4 a.m. was declared “too close to call.”
Many voters wonder why they can’t ever seem to get it right?
Part of the frustration may stem from the fact that the primary value of exit polling is to help us understand why people voted the way they did. This is an entirely different task than trying to predict a winner for Internet junkies who can’t wait a few more hours until actual votes are counted.
Reviewing Fox News/Rasmussen Reports data from key battleground states raises a couple red flags about the use of early exit polling data to predict a winner. Understanding this data from polling conducted last Sunday night may save some a repeat of 2004’s heartache.
The bottom line is that in every state we polled--Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia-- Democrats are a lot more eager to take exit polls than Republicans.
In five of the six states, a majority of Democrats say they would be Very Likely to participate in the exit polling process. At the same time, in five of the six states, fewer than 40% of Republicans would be willing to do the same.
In every state, Republicans are at least twice as likely as Democrats to say that they are not at all willing to take an exit poll.
Unaffiliated voters tend to align more closely to Republicans in all six states in both willingness and unwillingness to participate in exit polls.
In Colorado, for example, 64% of likely voters say they are at least somewhat likely to take an exit poll. But take a closer look at the numbers: While 52% of Democrats say they are Very Likely to participate in an exit poll, just 36% of Republicans agree.
In addition to that 16-point spread between Democrats and Republicans, 16% of Colorado’s GOP voters say they are not at all likely to take an exit poll versus eight percent (8%) of Democrats.
There’s an identical 16-point split in North Carolina, where 52% of Democrats say they are Very Likely to take an exit poll, but just 36% of Republicans agree. Only six percent (6%) of Democrats say they are not at all likely to take an exit poll, a view shared by 14% of Republican voters.
The closest of the battleground states is Ohio where there’s only an 11-point gap between Republicans and Democrats. Just 43% of Republican voters describe themselves as Very Likely to participate in an exit poll compared to 54% of Democrats.
Again, just seven percent (7%) of Democratic voters say they are not likely to take an exit poll at all. Compare that with 12% of Republicans who say the same.
Then there’s the issue of early voting, which is expected to reach unprecedented levels this year. Nationwide, Rasmussen Reports polling suggests as many as 37% of voters may cast their ballot before Tuesday.
In four of the battleground states, among those who had voted by last Sunday, Obama voters outnumber McCain voters by 20-plus points. In Missouri, early voters are evenly divided between the two candidates, while in Colorado Obama voters best McCain voters by “only” 15 points.
In Florida, which is typical of the others, 62% of those who have already voted cast their ballots for the Democrat, while 38% voted for McCain. In Virginia, 35% of early voters opted for the Republican, but 65% voted for Obama.
In part to compensate for this, exit polling has already begun in the 18 states where early voting is allowed. On the basis of our data from the battleground states, however, the responses appear likely to be weighted heavily in Obama’s favor since his voters far outnumber McCain’s. And, remember, Democrats are more willing to play the exit poll game than Republicans.
Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International which handled exit polling in 2004 will again conduct the polls that will be used by the Associated Press and by ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX and NBC. They’re going to great lengths to keep the data under wraps until 5 pm Eastern on Election Day, so any exit data released prior to that time is not from the “official” news consortium.
It was early poll numbers leaked in 2004 that showed Kerry leading Bush, contrary to the final results. One of those in charge of the polling later concluded that the discrepancy was because “Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters.” Sound familiar?
And that came just four years after the disastrous exit polling in 2000, when the race on Election Night was called first for Al Gore, then for Bush and then at 4 a.m. was declared “too close to call.”
Many voters wonder why they can’t ever seem to get it right?
Part of the frustration may stem from the fact that the primary value of exit polling is to help us understand why people voted the way they did. This is an entirely different task than trying to predict a winner for Internet junkies who can’t wait a few more hours until actual votes are counted.
Reviewing Fox News/Rasmussen Reports data from key battleground states raises a couple red flags about the use of early exit polling data to predict a winner. Understanding this data from polling conducted last Sunday night may save some a repeat of 2004’s heartache.
The bottom line is that in every state we polled--Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia-- Democrats are a lot more eager to take exit polls than Republicans.
In five of the six states, a majority of Democrats say they would be Very Likely to participate in the exit polling process. At the same time, in five of the six states, fewer than 40% of Republicans would be willing to do the same.
In every state, Republicans are at least twice as likely as Democrats to say that they are not at all willing to take an exit poll.
Unaffiliated voters tend to align more closely to Republicans in all six states in both willingness and unwillingness to participate in exit polls.
In Colorado, for example, 64% of likely voters say they are at least somewhat likely to take an exit poll. But take a closer look at the numbers: While 52% of Democrats say they are Very Likely to participate in an exit poll, just 36% of Republicans agree.
In addition to that 16-point spread between Democrats and Republicans, 16% of Colorado’s GOP voters say they are not at all likely to take an exit poll versus eight percent (8%) of Democrats.
There’s an identical 16-point split in North Carolina, where 52% of Democrats say they are Very Likely to take an exit poll, but just 36% of Republicans agree. Only six percent (6%) of Democrats say they are not at all likely to take an exit poll, a view shared by 14% of Republican voters.
The closest of the battleground states is Ohio where there’s only an 11-point gap between Republicans and Democrats. Just 43% of Republican voters describe themselves as Very Likely to participate in an exit poll compared to 54% of Democrats.
Again, just seven percent (7%) of Democratic voters say they are not likely to take an exit poll at all. Compare that with 12% of Republicans who say the same.
Then there’s the issue of early voting, which is expected to reach unprecedented levels this year. Nationwide, Rasmussen Reports polling suggests as many as 37% of voters may cast their ballot before Tuesday.
In four of the battleground states, among those who had voted by last Sunday, Obama voters outnumber McCain voters by 20-plus points. In Missouri, early voters are evenly divided between the two candidates, while in Colorado Obama voters best McCain voters by “only” 15 points.
In Florida, which is typical of the others, 62% of those who have already voted cast their ballots for the Democrat, while 38% voted for McCain. In Virginia, 35% of early voters opted for the Republican, but 65% voted for Obama.
In part to compensate for this, exit polling has already begun in the 18 states where early voting is allowed. On the basis of our data from the battleground states, however, the responses appear likely to be weighted heavily in Obama’s favor since his voters far outnumber McCain’s. And, remember, Democrats are more willing to play the exit poll game than Republicans.
Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International which handled exit polling in 2004 will again conduct the polls that will be used by the Associated Press and by ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX and NBC. They’re going to great lengths to keep the data under wraps until 5 pm Eastern on Election Day, so any exit data released prior to that time is not from the “official” news consortium.
It was early poll numbers leaked in 2004 that showed Kerry leading Bush, contrary to the final results. One of those in charge of the polling later concluded that the discrepancy was because “Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters.” Sound familiar?
TWO DAYS TO VICTORY
"I want to repeat to you one more time, my friends -- we're going to win, and we're going to bring real change to Washington," he said at a rally in Wallingford, Pennsylvania.
"With your help, we can win. ... We need a new direction, and we have to fight for it," McCain said, urging voters to volunteer in the final hours of campaigning.
"Two days, two days to victory," he said to roaring applause.
McCain wins mock high school vote
Arizona Sen. John McCain won a landslide victory in the mock presidential elections held at Cleveland and Bradley County high schools.The Republican ticket of McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin won 61.2 percent of the 2,121 votes cast at Cleveland High School, Bradley Central High School and Walker Valley High School. McCain received 1,298 to 823 votes cast for Ill. Sen. Barack Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware.Cleveland resident Sarah Palen, a student at Cleveland State Community College, said in a Friday interview politics should not drive a wedge between people regardless of who wins."I get along with everybody," she said. "What they believe in (politically) doesn't make a friend."Her best friend is Jessica Spors, who favors Obama."We are inseparable," Jessica said. "We do everything together."The vote among Cleveland High School students was the only three of the schools where the vote was close. McCain drew 322 votes (52.61 percent) to 290 (47.39 percent) favoring Obama.The McCain-Palin ticket collected 395 (66.05 percent) at Walker Valley to 203 (33.95 percent) for Obama and Biden. At Bradley Central, the numbers were 581 to 330 or 63.78 to 36.22 percent.
SURVEY USA POLL IN VIRGINIA: OBAMA 50 , MCCAIN 46 9 (M +5)
A Month Ago, McCain Led by 9 Among VA Whites ... Now He Leads by 17 Among VA Whites ... And So ... Virginia whites veer back toward John McCain in the campaign's final 72 hours, helping the Republican to close to within 4 points of Democrat Barack Obama, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Obama, in interviews through Saturday night 11/01/08, leads 50% to 46%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA VA poll 1 week ago, McCain is up 3, Obama is down 2. Among voters age 35 to 49, McCain leads today for the first time in 7 weeks. Immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 22 points among white Virginians. That narrowed to a 9-point McCain lead when the stock market fell. Now, at the wire, McCain is back up to a 17 point advantage among whites. In the Shenandoah, McCain moves ahead of Obama. In the DC suburbs, McCain slices into Obama's lead. Virginia men continued to be more affected by events than Virginia women. 800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Of them, 748 were registered to vote. Of them, 672 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day.
IBD/TIPP 11/2/08: Obama: 46.7; Mccain: 44.6; Undecided: 8.7
The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates
Datamar Survey: Florida a dead heat ( MCCAIN PICKED UP 2.3 %)
BOTH OBAMA & MCCAIN GET 46.7%
(PARTY ID: DEM 44, REP 39)
IN 2006 PARTY ID VOTE WAS: REP 39%, DEM 36%
IN 2004 PARTY ID VOTE WAS: REP 41, DEM 37%
if the turnout vote will be the same as 2004 , Mccain leads by a few points
(PARTY ID: DEM 44, REP 39)
IN 2006 PARTY ID VOTE WAS: REP 39%, DEM 36%
IN 2004 PARTY ID VOTE WAS: REP 41, DEM 37%
if the turnout vote will be the same as 2004 , Mccain leads by a few points
M/D POLL: MCCAIN LEADING IN NC & OH
Mason-Dixon North Carolina General Election
John McCain 49% (last poll 47%)
Barack Obama 46% (last poll 47%)
Mason-Dixon Ohio General Election
John McCain 47% (last poll 46%)
Barack Obama 45% (last poll 45%)
John McCain 49% (last poll 47%)
Barack Obama 46% (last poll 47%)
Mason-Dixon Ohio General Election
John McCain 47% (last poll 46%)
Barack Obama 45% (last poll 45%)
D/H TRACKING: OBAMA 50 , MCCAIN 45 (M +2)
Today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll finds that Obama-Biden lead McCain-Palin among likely voters, 50%-45%, with 5% undecided. The Poll also finds that 27% of voters have already voted. Among these voters, 51% support Obama and 46% support McCain.
As goes Gallup ...so goes Zogby....
OBAMA 49.5
MCCAIN 43.9
Pollster John Zogby: “Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.
“So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.
“Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else’s) health.”
MCCAIN 43.9
Pollster John Zogby: “Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.
“So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.
“Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else’s) health.”
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Fred barnes predicts a Mccain Victory
on FoxNews Beltway Boys Fred barnes prediction is McCain (279 EV)
M/D POLL: MCCAIN MAKING A COMEBACK IN VIRGINIA
A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.
Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.
Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.
Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.
Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.
Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.
Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.
AS MISSOURI GOES...SO GOES THE NATION....
A Recent Politico poll has McCain with a 3 point advantage over Obama!
McCain = 50
Obama = 47
Undecideds = 3(?)
Now, figuring in that the undecideds are breaking towards McCain at a 4 to 1 ratio, it looks like McCain will take Missouri.
Missouri has historically picked the next President of the United States 25 out of 26times.
McCain = 50
Obama = 47
Undecideds = 3(?)
Now, figuring in that the undecideds are breaking towards McCain at a 4 to 1 ratio, it looks like McCain will take Missouri.
Missouri has historically picked the next President of the United States 25 out of 26times.
BIDEN: MCCAIN NEVER GIVES UP
This election is going to be a lot closer than everybody thinks it is,” Biden said. “I think it’s going to be close in Florida, it’s going to be close here, it’s going to be close in Missouri, I think it’s going to close - I don’t think it will be that close in Pennsylvania, I feel very good about Pennsylvania.”
“I think it’s going to be close in North Carolina, um, you know, Virginia feels really good but, you know, it ain’t till it happens,” he laughed. “We’re going everywhere. Montana, Arizona, I mean we’re everywhere we can be.”
McCain, he said, isn’t going away quietly. “One of the things I’ve admired about John, and I’ve considered him — why I’ve considered him a friend. He does, he never gives up,” said Biden.
“I think it’s going to be close in North Carolina, um, you know, Virginia feels really good but, you know, it ain’t till it happens,” he laughed. “We’re going everywhere. Montana, Arizona, I mean we’re everywhere we can be.”
McCain, he said, isn’t going away quietly. “One of the things I’ve admired about John, and I’ve considered him — why I’ve considered him a friend. He does, he never gives up,” said Biden.
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